NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Preview: Larson Expected to Dominate at Homestead-Miami
Race: Straight Talk Wireless 400
Date: Sunday March 23, 2025
Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Man oh man! Talk about a dark horse winning the race! I’ve really liked Josh Berry since he first started in the Cup Series, helping HMS with filling in, but he proved this past weekend that he is here to win! The Wood Brothers found their #21 Ford back in victory lane after Josh Berry ran a strong and smart race on Sunday to finally find his first checkered flag of his Cup Series career and the 101st win for the Wood Brothers. In fact, the top 3 spots were pretty uncanny when all was said and done. Josh Berry was your winner followed by Daniel Suarez and Ryan Preece! It was another strong run the Preece in his #60 Ford, letting us know that his team is also here to play hard! The Chevrolets of William Byron and Ross Chastain rounded out the top 5. Austin Cindric had another phenomenal day with a 6th place finish followed by Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott in the 10th spot. Notice all 4 HMS cars in the top 10 places with Christopher Bell in 12th spot being the best finishing Toyota.
It was a pretty mild finish for Bell, who has won the last 3 races of the season. He struggled throughout the day to find the speed he needed to be competitive. He was looking to be the first driver since Bill Elliott in the early ’90s to win 4 of the first 5 races of the Cup Series season. Unfortunately, he was not able to do that, but 3 out of 5 isn’t too shabby. My mid-pick of Brad Keselowski was in a similar situation of struggling to find speed and finished just outside of the top 10 in 11th place. You know who didn’t have a good day? Kyle Busch. I must’ve jinxed the guy because if it could go wrong, it did. If he didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all this past weekend. Unfortunately, that left him with a tough 33rd place finish when all was said and done. Ryan Blaney was worse for wear with a 35th place finish and a DNF along with Cody Ware, Shane van Gisbergen, and Noah Gragson. It was definitely an odd race with the way tires seemed to be punishing everyone. If you weren’t earning a pit road speeding penalty, you were having an issue with not staying in your box, losing a tire, or the lug nut not being secure. It was just a mess on pit road, something that these teams are going to need to do better this weekend on a global perspective.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
For those that had a positive experience at Vegas this weekend, they’ll be happy to have another shot at victory as they head across the country to Homestead-Miami Speedway to run the Straight Talk Wireless 400 this Sunday. This track use to close out the Series and bring us our champion each year, but the schedule evolved, bumping it to earlier in the year. I actually had the opportunity to see a championship race at this track where Jeff Gordon won the race and Brad Keselowski won the championship! It was definitely a great time. If you have a chance to get to this track, I highly recommend! It’s a pretty “cookie-cutter” track in terms of intermediate tracks, boasting a 1.5-mile oval with 18 to 20 degrees of banking through the turns and a mild 4 degrees on the straights. Although not a tri-oval like Vegas, it’s still pretty similar in configuration, so we should see the same guys that did well at Vegas do well here. Honestly, speed is the name of the game, and as we saw, 4 tires beats 2 tires every single time. If given the chance, take the full set. Finally, these guys are going to have to nix the pit road errors. If they can manage to do all of those things, we will be sure to see some good racing like we did last weekend.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Homestead, as mentioned, we have some pretty standard notables. In the last 3 races here, Christopher Bell holds the top spot for best average finish including a win. AJ Allmendinger is actually just below Bell with the same average finish but no wins. Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson are the other 2 drivers with a win in the last 3 races and they were actually drivers that were very competitive last weekend but fell out of contention for various reasons. I think that they are going to be at the front of the pack this weekend contending for the win. In total starts over Homestead history, Christopher Bell still holds the top spot for best average finish in 5 total races. He is followed by Tyler Reddick and Carson Hocevar. In the case of Hocevar, he’s only had a singular start in his Cup Series career, so that’s certainly not the best indication of overall performance. We will have to see how he stacks up this weekend. I think that he’s a strong driver. Don’t get me wrong, but we don’t have a lot to look at in his Cup Series history for comparison. Other notable drivers include Denny Hamlin with 3 wins in 20 starts and the 5th best average finish. Those 20 starts include 13 top 10 finishes. That’s a pretty strong record. The problem is that he has started strong in the races this year then fizzled. He’s going to have to show some consistency this weekend if he wants to get back into victory lane. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners (odds by Bovada) this weekend heading into the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +400
- Mid-Range Pick: Chase Briscoe +1400
- Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger +8000
Allmendinger is good here. There’s no doubt about it. I mentioned consistency, and that’s what he’s brought to the table for the last several years. He is going to undoubtedly have his work cut out for him, but he’s going to be solid here this year. He ranks 9th in Next Gen Speed Rankings, so leave it to Allmendinger to put it all on the line and go for the win. Chase Briscoe is going to give us something to think about this weekend as well. Although he’s been pretty quiet historically at Homestead, he had his best ever finish here last year with a 12th place run and should run a solid top 10 showing through much of the day. Kyle Larson is going to be the driver to beat. With a win here in 2022 and just a knack for that high line, Larson is going to find himself right at home on this high-grooved track where pedal to the metal and speed are all that’s needed. Larson is made for these styles and has ranked #1 for speed in 2 of the last 3 races despite not winning them all. He had a really strong showing at Vegas and is coming back strong this weekend to look for victory lane. Although he didn’t get what he was looking for at Vegas, Larson still managed to pick up 5 top spots in the standings after a great race. Here’s a look at your top 16 after Sunday’s showdown at Vegas:
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott
- Alex Bowman
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Ross Chastain
- Bubba Wallace
- Denny Hamlin
- Josh Berry
- Michael McDowell
- John H. Nemechek
- Rick Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse, John H. Nemechek, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. lost 2 spots each but there were quite a few drivers that lost a lot more than that. Denny Hamlin lost 5 positions, bumping him down to 12th place. Kyle Busch, in his own demise, fell 9 positions, landing in 17th. The top 3 drivers didn’t swap any spots, showing their consistency this season. All in all, we have a good mix of manufacturers in the top 16 spots, with 2 Toyotas in the top 3 spots. They struggled at Vegas, so it’ll be interesting to see if they have any better luck at Homestead. It seemed like finding speed was difficult, where the Fords and Chevys excelled. Who will excel this weekend? Stay tuned for an awesome afternoon of racing at sunny Homestead-Miami Speedway!