Go Bowling at the Glen Preview & Picks – Can Logano Keep the Momentum?
Date: Sunday, September 15, 2024
Track: Watkins Glen International
Time: 3 pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
If there’s a way you don’t want to start the playoffs, then just ask Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe. We were having a pretty clean race with 55 green laps run, but somehow, Kyle Larson’s #5 Chevrolet got loose off turn two and slammed into the outside wall, taking a pretty gnarly hit and coming down sideways into the middle of the track. It was literally a wrong place/wrong time scenario for Briscoe, who was hoping for a more successful first playoff race this time around. Unfortunately, both drivers had to retire from the race and ended with just one measly point for their efforts on Sunday. For Larson, it was pretty much a surprise. He didn’t have an explanation for what happened to the car and actually described it as tight before the exit of turn 2. Luckily, he was unharmed and credited the safety measures for helping him exit the car safely. Another driver with some pretty terrible luck on Sunday was Martin Truex Jr. He was having a horrible time throughout the entire race, taking multiple trips to pit road. The caution at lap 205 was enough for Truex. His night was over, leaving the race 12 laps down and sitting outside the outside the cutoff point for the next round.
Ultimately, the day belonged to Penske, something we haven’t seen in quite some time. Both Joey Logano and teammate Ryan Blaney had superb cars throughout the afternoon, with Blaney pushing Logano to the victory on the last overtime restart. Blaney struggled to hold on to 2nd and ended up just short to Daniel Suarez. Surprisingly, Suarez was very disappointed in a runner-up scenario. He was hoping for a win after struggling for much of the 2024 season. I guess he isn’t truly struggling, but he certainly didn’t have the consistency that we saw out of him the year prior. Also, Suarez wanted to secure his spot and punch his ticket into the Round of 12. Atlanta was not meant to be for him. Logano is the one that proved to have the speed to make it securely into the next round. Team Penske had a great showing to start off the playoff rounds. That was something that we didn’t see a lot of this year. There hasn’t been much for true domination this year. William Byron got quite a handful of wins, but there wasn’t truly one team or one driver that really proved to be premier above all others like we’ve seen in years past.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
The next race for Logano to prove that he can dominate will be at Watkins Glen. NASCAR is throwing a lot of different styles at these drivers and teams throughout the playoff rounds, which is only fair as a true representation of what they race throughout the regular season. The road courses aren’t as numerous, but we are definitely seeing them well-represented on the circuit now rather than just the one or two tracks that the series used to hold strong to. This track is technically pretty challenging and requires quite a bit of skill, although it doesn’t boast nearly as many twists and turns as some of the newer road courses that have been introduced into the Cup Series. Watkins Glen is a 2.454 mile asphalt road course with just seven turns. This track’s inaugural race was back in 1986 where Tim Richmond won the race after Geoff Bodine made a last minute pit stop with less than 10 to go that proved to be the demise of his afternoon. This just goes to show what accurate pit stops mean at this place. With difficulty catching the leader and making passes, pit road is where time can be lost or made up. The race off pit road is critical as is the ability for teams to perform as accurately as possible.
Odds and Value Picks
With the last race at this track back in August of 2023, this will be the first visit this year for the drivers. William Byron is currently the defending winner at this track with Kyle Larson winning the two races prior to that. Chase Elliott also took two wins back in 2018 and 2019. If that tells you anything, that should tell you that your money needs to sit with a Hendrick driver. They don’t necessarily have the best average finishes overall, though, with Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Tyler Reddick besting the HMS drivers in the last three starts. When we look at all-time career starts, that frame changes just a bit with Chase Elliott entering at #4 best average finish. Want to know who’s disrupting the continuity of these top average finishes? AJ Allmendinger. The Dinger has the 3rd best average finish in his career 12 starts here. In the last two races, though, he’s got an average 3rd place finish. Talk about a track that someone figured out! Don’t count the Dinger out of your pool this weekend. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s road course race with odds from Bovada Sportsbook:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +600
- Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs +1000
- Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger +1200
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Honestly, I’d put Allmendinger over Gibbs any day of the week, but Gibbs just happens to have a spot in the playoffs this year. He’s gotten better, but he does not have this track figured out like Allmendinger. Out of the mid-pick drivers, though, Gibbs is probably the most solid pick. He’s not the best, but he’s not the worst. He’s got some work to do with an average 15th-place finish. The drivers are going to have their work cut out for them to chase down any one of the HMS guys. Although Kyle Larson has an average 9.3 place finish, he also has two wins, and those are recent wins! William Byron also has a win, so look for him to be a contender. Byron is still solid in the standings and someone that is in contention for the championship. One other guy that I think we need to be mindful of is Kyle Busch. Although he’s not in contention, Busch has a couple of wins on this track and is definitely looking for some sort of silver lining to what’s been a terribly disappointing 2024 season. Busch has the aggressiveness needed for these road courses. If his crew can bring him a solid car, he might sneak a win away from the playoff drivers. That can always throw a wrench in the plans. Joey Logano has a win here, but it was back in 2015, so his success in the newer cars has been limited. He might just be able to wrangle another victory this season if he can maintain the momentum from Atlanta. Let’s see where Logano and the other guys are sitting in the playoff standings heading into the 2nd of 3 races in this first round:
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney
- Christopher Bell
- Tyler Reddick
- William Byron
- Alex Bowman
- Austin Cindric
- Chase Elliott
- Daniel Suarez
- Kyle Larson
- Denny Hamlin
- Ty Gibbs
- Brad Keselowski
- Harrison Burton
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Chase Briscoe
Clearly, Keselowski, Burton, Truex, and Briscoe are our drivers below the cutoff. After Watkins Glen, these guys will only have one more shot to secure their spot in the next round by either points or a win. For now, Keselowski has the best shot by being only 1 point below the cutoff line, but Chase Briscoe is in a win or knockout situation being 21 points back. Ty Gibbs is on the bubble and needs to make this weekend count. Denny Hamlin is surprisingly not doing well either, just 2 points above the cutoff. He also is historically not the best driver here. Hamlin will need to run a smart race on Sunday if he intends to make it forward to the Round of 12. What will Watkins Glen bring the teams this week? Road courses tend to be unpredictable to an extent because we just never know who will have a tire blowout in a turn and collect half the field, much like a super-speedway. It’s going to get hairy as we start getting closer to the next round, so stay tuned. Watkins Glen never disappoints! Tune in on Sunday for an awesome afternoon of road course racing in the 2nd of 3 races in the Round of 16!