NASCAR Picks: Quaker State 400 Predictions at Atlanta

Date: Sunday, September 8, 2024

Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway

Time: 3pm ET

Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

And that’s a wrap! Chase Briscoe solidified his playoff hopes by securing a win at Darlington on Sunday night. It was a hard-fought battle, with Kyle Busch trying his hardest to chase down Briscoe, but he just couldn’t manage to do it, falling 0.361 seconds short of the victory for himself. For Busch, it was yet another disappointment in a season full of challenges. It was meant to be a season of hope, but Busch has struggled all year with the #8 RCR car and just could never get dialed in. Honestly, I am a little curious as to what the future holds for Busch. He’s one of the few veteran drivers still chugging along, while many have retired or are calling it quits post-2024. Busch has a lot of irons in the fire outside of NASCAR, including his son’s career. Brexton is quite the driver and definitely someone to watch as the years go on. The NASCAR prodigy is alive and well with Brexton and even Keelan, Kevin Harvick’s son. I’m sure we’re going to be seeing them in years to come. For Kyle, though, he will need to do some regrouping before 2025 comes along. Honestly, to have a winless year in the regular season and be so far out of contention that he’s not even in the top 16 in points is surprising knowing his history. Something has changed causing a major disruption in the last couple of years.

For now, he will need to settle for an attempt at a victory in the post-season. Briscoe now has a spot in the playoffs, but that means some others lost their chance. Martin Truex Jr. tried to sabotage himself early in the race with an incident on lap 3. Somehow, he miscalculated where he was on William Byron’s fender and tagged the wall in turn 1. He also collected Ryan Blaney, ending both of their days. Truex had a dismal 36th-place finish but somehow still secured a spot. That’s what consistency does and holding onto those points early on in the season. Truex had early success, and it translated into a late-season problem, not ruining the chance that he had to make the playoffs. Many were racing purely for points to secure their positions in the top 16. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain rounded out the top 5 spots after Briscoe and Busch. But even Busch’s excellent finish just wasn’t enough when it mattered most. His lack of consistency and struggles throughout the day proved to be too much to make up for. Bubba Wallace was also ousted from contention. Tyler Reddick managed to take the regular season championship just one point over Kyle Larson despite struggling with some sort of sickness throughout the day. He ended the day in 10th, preceded by Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Corey LaJoie.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, things will be a little different for the drivers and teams as we head into the first round of the playoffs. The playoffs begin with the Round of 16, with the top 16 drivers battling it out in the next three races. Four drivers will be knocked out after each round, with the last race culminating with the championship trophy. The playoff structure is built to represent many different types of tracks across the circuit. It begins this weekend with an oval but is followed by a road course and a short track. This Sunday, the drivers and teams are heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway. The teams have already battled at Atlanta earlier this year, with Daniel Suarez taking the win early in the season. We typically see big speeds on this track with its configuration. It’s a 1.540-mile D-shaped quad-oval with 28 degrees of banking in the turns and 5 degrees through the straights. Although there are high speeds, we won’t see drafting like we do at the super-speedways. It’s still a lot of fun, and the drivers have more opportunities to pass, in my opinion, than they do on the bigger tracks, with less collateral damage along the way. The caveat is that the leader tends to take off and build a solid amount of space between himself and second place. Lap traffic can have the potential to play a role here, but drivers are usually able to safely navigate around due to the size of the track. With long green flag runs, tires can become worn, so it’s important to take care of them. Most drivers will likely get four on their stops in between long runs, but with cautions, we might only see two tire stops. Drivers also have to take care not to make many mistakes. The playoffs are where perfection matters. Any little slip up could mean the difference between the championship and the first loser.

Odds and Value Picks

• Winner: Ryan Blaney +1000
• Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch +1200
• Dark Horse: Erik Jones +5000

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Jones is a good dark horse pick when compared to the rest of our C-list drivers. Jones has seven starts here with about a 16th-place average finish. He’s got a top 5 and a couple of top 10s. Jones has an opportunity to have a solid day. He’s been building this year with his team despite many struggles and setbacks, and he might have a great shot this weekend to have a very solid finish. Kyle Busch is now a B-lister. Sorry. He just is. Anyone who’s spent the majority of the season on the bubble or bouncing in and out of the top 16 deserves to be demoted at this point. Despite being demoted, Busch has a very strong record here and generally finishes very well. He’s got the weight of the playoffs gone, so this is his time to shine. Go win something. Maybe the lack of that weight will produce some fruit. We’ll have to wait and see. Ryan Blaney is in top-notch form, though. Even though he was taken out by a fluke last weekend, Blaney is just solid and strong. He’s got the chance to clinch another championship, and this weekend would be a great weekend to start with a win.

As we discussed earlier, we have a bit of a reset after the conclusion of the regular season. Heading into the playoffs, points are reset based on many factors that occurred throughout the regular season. This is why consistency matters. This is where some get confused. You see, although Reddick won the regular season, he’s starting the playoffs in 3rd place. Both Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are above Reddick because of stage wins, race wins, and overall better finishes. Larson and Bell both have 10 stage wins, for example, while Reddick only has 3. If we move on down the list, you’ll see that Truex lost seven positions in the standings due to his finishes throughout the year, including his dismal finish at Darlington. Lucky Harrison Burton got a big bump of 20 positions to sit in 14th place after his lucky win at Daytona. So, who is going to start our Round of 16 off with a bang? Will a playoff driver take the trophy or will someone outside the top 16 throw a wrench in the plans of the drivers? With only three rounds before four drivers are knocked out, it’s sure to be an edge-of-your-seat battle! Stay tuned as the drivers work hard to see who will take the first win of the playoffs!