NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Analysis & Picks
Race: NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Date: Sunday, November 5th, 2023
Track: Phoenix Raceway
Time: 3 pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
It’s almost a wrap, folks! Martinsville closed out the last round before the championship race, and some drivers are reeling in disappointment. One of those drivers is Denny Hamlin, which is somewhat surprising, being that Martinsville is typically one of his best races. Ryan Blaney managed to secure the win after an unusual 168-lap green flag run. This messed up strategy for quite a few teams, actually. Aric Almirola and Chase Elliott were among a few who pitted earlier in the pit window under the assumption and a well-vetted one at that, that there would be an additional caution or two later in the race. Unbeknownst to them, there were no additional cautions. Ryan Blaney ended up having fresher tires and managed to clear Almirola with 22 laps to go in the exit of turn 4, and that’s all she wrote. For Blaney, this was his third win of the season and his second of the playoffs. He won Talladega in a much closer fashion, but he came home in front of Almirola 0.889 seconds, which is a pretty good margin of victory here at Martinsville.
Overall, it was an unusual short-track race, especially for a race that was placed right before the final race of the season. There was definitely a greater expectation of higher risk or more close racing. We just didn’t see too much of that for some reason. Denny Hamlin, as mentioned, missed the championship 4 for the second season in a row, even though he won the first stage and finished the race in a very respectable 3rd spot. It just goes to show what consistency means during the entire year, but even more so in the playoff rounds. William Byron is a good example of what points do for you. As the most winningest driver this season, he definitely earned his way into the top 4 spots without fail. Many could take notes. The top 5 spots in this race didn’t do much to capture spots in the final bid for the championship, unfortunately. It was Blaney, Almirola, Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano. Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, and Todd Gilliland rounded out the top 10 spots. Almirola had his best finish of the year after announcing that he will not be returning fulltime for the 2024 season. It was definitely a great race for him. Phoenix will be bittersweet, so we’ll have to wait and see what he can do at that track.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Phoenix will provide us with the closing laps and thus the champion of the 2023 season this weekend. It’s hard to believe that the culmination of the entire year is already upon us. This track is kind of a neat place to close out the season. It’s not a cookie-cutter track. In fact, it’s a place that really isn’t a short track and isn’t an intermediate. It’s a bit of an in-between. Phoenix is a 1-mile low-banked tri-oval. The banking is progressive, with no more than 11 degrees at most through the toughest turn. It also has a notable dogleg, making it a unique configuration. Phoenix has a long history with NASCAR, with many changes in the track over the years, but it’s a driver and fan favorite nonetheless. Tires are so important here, as is track position. Because of the unique configuration of the track and the relative flatness, the tires get chewed up pretty well, and the wall seems to take advantage of these drivers. The leader also tends to pull away from the pack, so qualifying is important, and the ability to get out in front and stay in the clean air is going to be crucial.
Odds and Value Picks
In the most recent years, Joey Logano has the best finish overall with a 5.3 average over the line, followed closely by Kevin Harvick. Last week’s winner, Ryan Blaney, has the 4th best average finish followed by Chase Elliott. In all starts across the board, Kevin Harvick is the best active driver here. In 41 races (yes, you read that correctly), Harvick has an average finish of 8.1 with NINE total wins. That’s the most of any active driver. Jimmie Johnson comes in next with four wins follows by Kyle Busch and Joey Logano both with three wins. How cool would it be to see Harvick go out with a win? While he’s had a tough season, this is a fantastic track for him. I’d love to see such a decorated driver go out with one last hurrah. It’s not inconceivable. This is going to be a tough pick. Is the winner going to be the champion, and is the champion going to be the winner? Here’s a look at your potential winners for the race this weekend at the final showdown for 2023 with odds by Bovada:
- Winner: Kyle Larson
- Mid-Range: Kevin Harvick
- Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe
Briscoe only has five races here under his belt, but he actually has a win with two top-5s and 3 top 10s. He’s coming off a good weekend at Martinsville that should translate into a strong finish here at Phoenix. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good closeout to the season for this team here at Phoenix. As I mentioned before, Harvick is just great here. He’s really the best out of all of the drivers currently out there. I’m not the biggest Harvick fan, but just for nostalgia, it would be really cool to see him back in victory lane one last time. The end of the 2023 season would make it even cooler. It’s not out of the question. Look for Harvick and his team to put together something special this weekend as they come on the track for one last time. Larson is who they will all be chasing. Although he doesn’t have the best record out of all of the drivers here, he doesn’t have anywhere near the worst. In fact, he has a win. He also has 7 top 5 finishes. As someone with top odds for the championship heading into this weekend, I’d put my money on him for the win and the championship without a doubt. Here are your championship four contenders:
- Ryan Blaney
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
Larson may not be at the top of the points, but he knows how to get it done when it matters most. It takes a little bit of aggressiveness and a little bit of risk to take home the big prize. While Byron has done extraordinarily well throughout the entire season, I am not so sure he’s got the gumption that Larson has. When it comes down to real grit, Larson has everyone beat. This is going to be a tough one. This race is definitely no holds bar. The last race of the season is going to let everyone show us what they are truly made of. Maybe someone will get Chastain’ed. Maybe the wall will get Chastain’ed. Maybe Hamlin will call out someone’s telemetry after the race again. Maybe Bubba will cry wolf. Who knows?! I honestly hope we have a clean, hard, well-fought finish with no whining. Let boys be boys. Here’s to a great race this Sunday as we head to Phoenix for the last race of the 2023 season and the crowning of our champion!