NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Analysis & Picks | 11/10/24

by | Last updated Nov 7, 2024 | nascar

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Race: NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Date: Sunday, November 10, 2024

Track: Phoenix Raceway

Time: 3 pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Whether you liked the result or not, the final four are finally set for our championship race this weekend in Phoenix! This past Sunday, the drivers fought hard to get to the front, stay on the lead lap, and try to get that coveted win. Ryan Blaney was the winner after battling the entire day, leading many laps, and ultimately being able to hold off Chase Elliott and others when it mattered most. The top 5 finishers were Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Austin Cindric, and Denny Hamlin. Several of those guys were in a must-win situation, but Blaney was the one that captured it.

Both William Byron and Christopher Bell were battling for position, with penalties coming from NASCAR as a result of their subsequent finishes. Each team worked hard to maintain position and not lose any spots. However, NASCAR officials came down on Bubba Wallace, Austin Dillon, and Ross Chastain when all was said and done. Crew chiefs were suspended, points were lost, and Christopher Bell did not advance after all. The penalties happened because of radio evidence showing that the drivers and teams were blocking and holding back from advancing to allow both Bell and Byron their opportunities to move to the final four. The idea that NASCAR is going to regulate so many facets of this sport is getting exhausting, to be honest. Maybe we should just pull out the F1 rule book and start there in 2025. That seems to be the trajectory that we’re heading in.

Where Are We Heading This Weekend?

But I digress. Regardless of the calls this weekend, we are crowning our 2024 champion this weekend at Phoenix. Our final four was set when Christopher Bell was effectively disqualified for his “wall ride” in turns 3/4 during the last lap. Although he didn’t gain any positions, NASCAR ruled against that move after Ross Chastain pulled it out a couple of years ago. For safety reasons, NASCAR made the rule and must remain consistent in calling this rule for that reason. This allowed William Byron to edge him out in a tiebreaker scenario. Byron will compete alongside Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney for the title this weekend. Phoenix is a low-banked 1-mile asphalt tri-oval. There is progressive banking from the start/finish through the dogleg and then to 3/4, ranging from 3 degrees to 11 degrees at most. So, what does this configuration mean to the drivers and teams? Generally speaking, we’re looking at a track like Richmond. This means that the low banking and short-ish track will require good tire maintenance and attention to track position. We saw pit strategy, especially with two or four tire stops, seeming to be on the minds of the crew chiefs this weekend.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, there are a few of our final four that have a great shot. History tells us that Ryan Blaney clearly has the best average finish and has been the most consistent in the last several years. Although he boasts no wins, Blaney has an average 4.1 finish in his last seven starts, with 6 top 5 finishes. That’s pretty phenomenal when everything is said and done. William Byron is the next championship contender on the best-average finisher list, coming in 5th best and boasting a win here. Although he only has 4 top-10 finishes, one of those found him in victory lane. Joey Logano is 9th on the best average finish list, with Tyler Reddick not showing up until 16th with an average best finish of 15.6. This leaves a lot to be considered heading into this weekend. Who will take the win? Will one of these guys take the win or be knocked off by a non-playoff contender? Let’s see who your best chances are as we head into the final battle of the 2024 season (Odds provided by Bovada):

Winner: Ryan Blaney + 300

Ryan Blaney, though, he’s on point to win another championship. I really think he’s going to show up this weekend to win not only the race but the championship. These drivers are going to put it all on the line.

Mid-Range Pick: Ross Chastain +1600

Although Chastain isn’t in the position he’d like to be and struggled some this year, he’s had 3 top 5 finishes in his last five starts, including one win. That’s some good driving.

Dark Horse: Josh Berry +20000

Berry’s strong finish at Richmond earlier this year leads me to believe that he’ll have something to show us this weekend. He led a couple of laps there and overall had a solid 11th-place finish. He was having some great moments this past weekend at Martinsville as well, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see him have one of his best races this weekend at Phoenix.

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Final Four Standings

Currently, here’s where your final four sit:

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Joey Logano
  • Tyler Reddick
  • William Byron

When it comes down to Phoenix, it doesn’t matter at all about who has what points. This is the winner, or the best finisher takes the trophy. The goal is ultimately to win, but there’s always the chance that someone is going to mess up and wreck and NONE of these drivers want to see that happen. This will be a very strategic race and a very careful one while doing their best to be up front at the end. Stay tuned for the finale of our 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season this weekend at Phoenix Raceway!