NASCAR COTA Picks and Predictions: Road Course Ringers Primed for Texas Showdown

Race: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Date: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Track: Circuit of The Americas

Time: 3:30 PM ET

Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Carson Hocevar earned a few enemies this past weekend at Atlanta. For the 22-year-old driver for Spire Motorsports, it was definitely an exciting weekend and one that proved Hocevar has plenty of runway to grow. Although not everyone was happy with the driver, it provided a confidence boost for the young gun in only his second year of racing in the Cup Series. Hocevar showed a notch of maturity in choosing to not expound on the conversations had with veteran drivers Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain after the race, just to name a couple.

Despite the frustrations of other drivers, Hocevar recognized that he has some growing to do, but in all honesty, he was very correct in recognizing that this is only going to happen with experience. Quite frankly, it was refreshing to see a driver with that level of passion on the track again. Ironically, Kyle Busch was super upset with Hocevar, using some choice words on the radio. If I remember correctly, though, Kyle Busch was the king of ruffling feathers and ultimately thrived on it. Hocevar was just doing the same thing and what he thought needed to happen to have a shot at the win. With respect to the incident with Larson on the last lap, Hocevar admitted to not realizing the caution was flying and was just focused on getting to the checkered flag.

Enough about Hocevar. He didn’t even win. He came close, and he’s got something for these guys as we continue into this season, but Christopher Bell was the lucky one at the checkered flag first, despite a three-wide battle for the second time in as many years to the line. The race saw 11 total cautions, 8 of which were for wrecks. Many of the strongest contenders were mired in those wrecks but still managed to have decent finishes by the end of the race. Others, well, they were not so lucky even if they weren’t involved in any incidents. Ryan Blaney was one of those guys who really struggled to get his car dialed in throughout the day. He had a respectable 12th-place finish regardless, launching him into the points lead, but it definitely wasn’t what we expected to see. That being said, Christopher Bell didn’t expect to win, being that he didn’t lead a single lap until the last one. Nevertheless, for the driver that hasn’t had great success on the speedways, he professed his love for them after winning at Atlanta!

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Bell is going to have another opportunity at a strong finish as the drivers head to the first road course of the season at COTA. Circuit of the Americas is a 2.356-mile circuit located in Austin, Texas, and home to the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix among many other motor racing series races. For NASCAR, this is still a relatively new track for the drivers and teams, with the first NASCAR Cup Series event taking place on May 23, 2021.

This year will mark the first time that the drivers are running on the smaller circuit. From 2021 through 2024, the teams ran what is known as the full course at 3.426 miles. Despite the shorter distance, the drivers will still battle 18 total turns, which is pretty technically challenging. It is shortened by just two turns in the total distance, so there will be a lot of opportunities for these drivers to bunch up in the corners and attempt to pass, but that is always easier said than done on these road courses. Carnage will be plentiful. Wait and see.

Odds and Value Picks

In the past four years, we have not yet seen a repeat winner. The inaugural race was won by Chase Elliott, who has an affinity for road courses, but he hasn’t been able to repeat that success at COTA quite yet. The following year, we saw Ross Chastain take the win, but this was also the year that Chastain had a stellar performance across the board. Tyler Reddick was our next winner in 2023, followed by William Byron in 2024. Overall, we’ve had three Chevrolet victories and just one Toyota. The Ford drivers have not had a victory here yet, but don’t count them out.

Winner: Chase Elliott

Mid-Range Pick: Tyler Reddick

Dark Horse: Shane van Gisbergen

Don’t look at last year’s results for van Gisbergen’s potential. The guy rallied back after getting a speeding penalty on pit road and also losing a gear to finish 21st, which is a pretty big accomplishment based on the equipment failure. He was running top 10 at one point and has had great success at other tracks, especially Watkins Glen where he nearly won but settled for runner-up. At Charlotte, Shane got the pole and came home with a 7th-place finish. He’s clearly a force to be reckoned with on these types of courses.

Tyler Reddick will undoubtedly give him a run for his money, though. As mentioned, he won here back in 2023 and had three top-five finishes in his last three starts. Reddick is just skillful at these places, with an average finish of 3.7 in the Next Gen cars at this track.

Chase Elliott is our final major contender, one who is well on his way to being the winningest road course driver in NASCAR history. With seven road course wins, he definitely knows his way around these places and also has a win at COTA. He will be looking to be the first repeat winner at this track, much like Tyler Reddick.

Current Standings After Atlanta

1. Ryan Blaney
2. William Byron
3. Tyler Reddick
4. Austin Cindric
5. Bubba Wallace
6. Kyle Larson
7. John Hunter Nemechek
8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
9. Alex Bowman
10. Chase Elliott
11. Joey Logano
12. Christopher Bell
13. Denny Hamlin
14. Michael McDowell
15. Carson Hocevar
16. Chris Buescher

We’re seeing some huge swings in the points just because we’re only two races deep into the season. The race at COTA will also shake things up. Who will come out victorious? Stay tuned for an awesome afternoon of racing at Circuit of the Americas and see who will be the next winner on the new shortened format!