NASCAR Betting Preview: Ms. V’s Best Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400

Race: Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet

Date: Sunday, September 29, 2024

Track: Kansas Speedway

Time: 3pm ET

Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Kyle Larson was out to prove me wrong after leading a total of 462 of 500 laps at Bristol. In absolutely dominating fashion, Larson left no doubt about his intention to continue and compete for a championship this year. Even though he was secure moving on to the Round of 12 already, this win solidified any doubts that anyone had. In fact, he set a record for the most laps led by a Hendrick driver in a single race. He beat out the best of the best to earn that record. That means he’s part of that elite crowd at this point with a long runway ahead of him remaining for his racing career to accrue many more accolades. If that wasn’t enough, this marks Larson’s 5th win of 2024, another best for this driver. That was enough to set him atop the leaderboard once again as the drivers close out the first round of eliminations and move closer to crowning the 2024 Series champion.

For many drivers, it was a night of disappointments. As I mentioned last week, pit road penalties can ruin a driver’s shot at this track. Speeding is particularly challenging to control at Bristol due to the short pit road and just the difficulty of entering and exiting without breaking that barrier. Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. both learned just how devastating those penalties can be. Gibbs sped on pit road along with suffering with a worn tire at the end of the race and came up 11 points shy of the cutoff. Truex was another driver that was close to the cutoff and needed a great night. He, too, suffered from the speeding demon on pit road in the final pit stop. It was probably a little more crushing for this team due to their strong finishes in the first and second stages. They went from finishing fourth and second in those stages, respectively, to finishing the race in 24th overall after the unfortunate late speeding penalty. There really was no way to catch up that late in the race, leaving Truex with a bunch of “what ifs” when all was said and done.

Playoff driver Chase Elliott finished second followed by non-playoff driver Bubba Wallace for a solid third place run. Denny Hamlin, who was below the cutoff entering the race, came home 4th after maintaining a consistent top 5 run throughout the entire night. He relinquished that Larson clearly had the best car, leaving Hamlin disappointed with the equipment his team provided him at Bristol this go around. Christopher Bell came home with a respectable 5th place finish. Ryan Blaney, Ryan Preece, Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman, and Ross Chastain rounded out the top 10 spots.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Gibbs, Truex, Keselowski, and Harrison Burton were the unfortunate 4 that got knocked out in the Round of 16. They now have the pressure of the championship off their shoulders as they head into Kansas this weekend. Will that make a difference in how they perform or act towards playoff drivers on the track? Kansas will give us something to look at for sure with that in mind. This track is a pretty cookie-cutter 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 17 to 20 degrees in the turns, 10 degrees on the frontstretch and 5 degrees on the backstretch. Last year, this track was before Bristol. This year, it’s the opener to the Round of 12. Track position is going to be king, as the drivers will have some difficulty catching the rest of the field if they get too far behind. If the drivers learned anything from Bristol, it was also the importance of pit stops and NOT making mistakes. Those mistakes turn out to be costly. Kansas does not present the same opportunities for failure as Bristol, but in high stress situations, it’s still a factor that must be considered and mitigated at this point in the season.

Odds and Value Picks

Kansas will most certainly be a highly contested race, as both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson (much like Bristol) run very well here and have some good stats to back them up. Looking at the last 3 years, we see that Denny Hamlin has the best average finish in 7 starts. He has 1 win, and 6 top 5s. That’s pretty hard to beat. BUT we then have Kyle Larson not too far behind him with an average finish of 5.3 and 2 wins! Larson’s Achilles heel is running the entirety of the race extremely well but then failing to deliver when the checkered flag comes out. He has 2 top 5 finishes behind Hamlin’s record.

Following Hamlin and Larson are Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, and Alex Bowman. Clearly, Kurt Busch isn’t going to be much of a threat this weekend. Interestingly enough, when we look at the long term data, Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski best both Hamlin and Larson. HOWEVER, and that’s a big however, Hamlin still has 4 wins while Elliott has one and Keselowski, Larson, Truex, and Kyle Busch have 2. Kyle Busch is not having any luck this year…at least no good luck. I doubt that will change this weekend. I’m on the fence about whether Truex being out of contention will change how he comes to work every day. That’s not to say that he won’t run a strong race, but honestly, there hasn’t been much consistency in the equipment or the driver this year. We are likely to see a repeat of the same two big names this Sunday. here are the picks with odds from Bovada (You can bet on the race live-in-progress there!)

Winner Picks

Winner: Denny Hamlin

Mid-Range Pick: Chase Briscoe

Dark Horse: Noah Gragson

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Gragson has been in an up and down season. In the Spring race here, he had a 9th place finish. Overall, he has success at the high-speed intermediate tracks, a category in which Kansas falls into. He has a short history of Cup starts, so we don’t know much, but if the Spring race is any indication, Gragson will have a good payout if he miraculously pulls out a win.

So, I know that Briscoe is technically in the playoffs, but if we’re being honest with ourselves, he’s not an elite driver at this point. He’s definitely got a lot of potential and has come a long way, but he’s sitting on the bubble and likely will not make it, short of a win, to the Round of 8. Now, if we compare this to Texas, Briscoe might just have a shot. That’s one of the few high-speed intermediate tracks that he is usually pretty competitive at. Briscoe basically needs a win, and this is very likely one of his best shots this round. Look for him to be abnormally fast in his pursuit of the next round. Being faster than Denny Hamlin is still the goal, though.

Kyle Larson is going to be up there too, but Hamlin is truly needing a Hail Mary to continue his chances at the elusive championship. It’s funny to see all of the memes that talk about Hamlin basically sabotaging his own chances at the trophy. If anyone has managed to do it every single year, it’s Denny. Somehow, though, he managed to have a successful Bristol and rise from the ashes in some respect to push through to the next round without being eliminated. Maybe the tide is turning. Probably not. But we can speculate. Let’s see where he finished off along with the remaining 12 drivers as they all head to Kansas:

• Kyle Larson
• Christopher Bell
• Tyler Reddick
• William Byron
• Ryan Blaney
• Denny Hamlin
• Chase Elliott
• Joey Logano
• Austin Cindric
• Daniel Suarez
• Alex Bowman
• Chase Briscoe

Truth be told, those bottom four aren’t very surprising. But as we’ve seen, anything is possible. The difference in points between Cindric and Logano is a small 4-point gap right now. Elliott himself is only 6 points above the line. Hamlin remains 7 points above the cutoff. Wins are paramount. But points are also important. Heading into Kansas, are these guys going to go all out and risk everything to get the win, or will they run a smarter more conservative race in hopes of staying on the up and up with points?

Talladega and a road course are next up on the schedule. Kansas might be the only opportunity to truly take some risks without completely botching hopes missing out on the next round. Stay tuned to see how the story plays out as these drivers and teams battle it out at Kansas Speedway!

Be sure to check out our Week 4 NFL picks!