NASCAR Betting: Food City Dirt Race Picks

by | Last updated Apr 5, 2023 | nascar

Food City Dirt Race

Race: Food City Dirt Race
Date: Sunday, April 9, 2023
Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Time: 7 pm ET
Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Kyle Larson took the win at Richmond, but the Hendrick garage had a lot to celebrate this weekend. On the late Ricky Hendrick’s birthday, Larson pulled off the win in a car, giving tribute. It was truly a special moment and a great win for Larson. It was his 1st of the season and his 20th of his Cup career. Larson is going to have quite a record behind him by the end of his career. There’s something pretty special about the entire Hendrick organization, though. In only his 4th start in the Cup Series for Hendrick, Josh Berry finished a career-best 2nd place, only to teammate Kyle Larson. For Berry, this was tremendous. He gave all the credit to the NAPA team behind him, but it definitely was an opportunity to show off his skill as a driver. Larson was nothing but complimentary of Berry too. He gave him props for his skills as a short track driver and even for his ability to really break down his car’s strengths and faults. It seems like Berry is sinking in well to his role at HMS, filling in for Chase Elliott for now. William Byron, another Hendrick driver, had a tremendous day going before hitting the turn two wall after late-race contact on a restart. He led a race high 117 laps, but he couldn’t outrun some bad luck there at the end. The fourth Hendrick driver, Alex Bowman, didn’t have the best run going throughout the day, but he managed a very respectable 8th place finish when all was said and done.

Despite what it looks like, it wasn’t a complete HMS show on Sunday. While Kyle Larson and Josh Berry finished one-two, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick rounded out the top 5 spots. Michael McDowell turned some heads with a strong 6th place finish, followed by Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, and Brad Keselowski for the top 10 spots. Denny Hamlin, a Richmond favorite, struggled for much of the race. It didn’t help that he dumped JJ Yeley early on. Being that he’s already trying to appeal a penalty with NASCAR, purposefully dumping another driver doesn’t look too good. I guess that explains why he calls his podcast “Actions Detrimental”. It makes too much sense.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to Bristol for a good ‘ole dirt track race! Richmond and Bristol are very different tracks even when they’re paved, so you can imagine a Bristol dirt track race is going to be one of a kind. I *love* dirt track racing. It’s really the roots of stock car racing altogether. A huge portion of these guys started on dirt tracks. I know a lot of folks have reservations about Bristol being turned into a dirt race, but I can’t help but love it. I don’t necessarily think that the cars are right for the track, but it’s fun nonetheless. It’s a 0.533 mile dirt oval. The cool thing about a dirt track is that is always different, especially when you have to rebuild it for every race. In essence, this track changes throughout the race too, but it’s a short track dirt race. Expect close racing. Expect fender hits. (Unless you’re Denny Hamlin, then you’re not allowed to be hit). Expect tires to not be such a huge issue. This will be a more track position type race. Tires won’t get you but so much around a short dirt track. Pit road position is always important at Bristol, so qualifying spots will mean something.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner for Bristol, it’s hard to compare this dirt track to any other track on the circuit. We only have two races to base this prediction on, but we can also go with some short-track stars in general. With that knowledge, Joey Logano is the top dog with an average of 2 races. He has a win and also an additional top 5. He’s led 61 laps total. He’s followed by Tyler Reddick, who’s having a great year so far this year. Reddick doesn’t have a win, but he’s led 99 laps and has a top 5 and top 10 finish. The only other winner here is Kyle Busch. The interesting part with Busch is that he’s only led a total of 8 laps, so we’re going to have to be careful with his one win predicting anything. That’s not to say that he can’t and won’t do it again, but it also shows us that he might not be the most dominating driver here with the best short. Daniel Suarez has led the most out of any driver with 122 laps led. Let’s take a look at your potential winners for Sunday’s race:

  • Winner: Joey Logano +1200
  • Mid-Range Pick: Daniel Suarez +1800
  • Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +900 (Underlay)

Briscoe may not have had the best finish last year, but he was there at the end until getting into it with Tyler Reddick and spinning out. His 22nd place finish was nowhere near representative of his run for the entire day. Briscoe is a strong short track racer. We need to keep that in mind. He had a respectable 12th place finish at Richmond, and I expect him to build on that strength this weekend. Suarez is someone that we still need to keep our eyes on. He hasn’t had the best start to 2023, but Bristol might just be the place where we will see the tide turn in his favor. I anticipate Suarez coming on strong on Sunday. They will all be chasing Logano. Joey is looking for victory lane once again. His consistency is second to none, and with an established record of success already at this track, I believe that he is going to maintain that as we head into this weekend. Let’s see where he is on the leaderboard after Richmond.

  1. William Byron
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Tyler Reddick
  6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  7. Alex Bowman
  8. Ross Chastain
  9. Christopher Bell
  10. Kevin Harvick
  11. Martin Truex Jr.
  12. Brad Keselowski
  13. Ryan Blaney
  14. Denny Hamlin
  15. Austin Cindric
  16. Chris Buescher

Stenhouse Jr. might also be another one to watch. He struggled at Richmond, but that’s unusual for him at a short track. So far, he’s been much more consistent than we’ve seen in previous years. Bristol will likely add to his points. Kyle Busch is also going to be someone to watch. He didn’t have the greatest showing at Richmond, but his odds this weekend remain strong, knowing that he’s gotten to victory lane in the past. Some other models are throwing Larson at the top of the board, but I’m not so sure he’s going to be able to pull it off. My gut just says no this time around. Let’s see what this weekend brings. Stay tuned for a great weekend of dirt track racing at the one and only Bristol Motor Speedway!