NASCAR Atlanta Picks and Predictions: Blaney Ready to Dominate After Daytona Survival

Date: Sunday February 23, 2025

Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway

Time: 3pm ET

Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Good to see that Ryan Preece has a sense of humor! This poor guy has flipped in two of the last four Daytona races, which is obviously not ideal. Preece preached safety and brought NASCAR to attention calling out the need for the cars to stay grounded. He mentioned the fact that the hit didn’t seem like it warranted flipping the car and making it go airborne. I’ve always been curious about the plate on the bottom of these cars, which seems counterintuitive to keeping a car from catching air. Although he was a bit shaken up, as to be expected, he still gave us a good laugh by releasing a photo of him in a spacesuit. Preece was ready to go to the moon!

I’m fairly certain that wasn’t the end result that anyone wanted, but there was quite a bit of carnage throughout the day in this race, which was postponed for hours due to rain. Ultimately, one of the biggest wrecks of the race happened with just 4 laps remaining. Joey Logano made what Jeff Gordon called out as a “dumb move” causing Stenhouse Jr. to turn around and collect a total of 14 cars. Logano defended his move as a block, but if you look at the footage, it really was pretty stupid from a hindsight perspective. While he tried to say you don’t win a race from not making the move, taking out a third of the field is not a great move either. Cole Custer also tried to make a move on the last lap that resulted in Denny Hamlin being collected. Custer was enthusiastic about his opportunity and was just doing his best to possibly capture a win in the sport’s biggest race. Hamlin was surprisingly graceful at the end during his interview, recognizing the Custer’s move back to the Cup Series from Xfinity is an opportunity to gain experience. Superspeedways require a special skill set, with the best teacher being that of experience.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Luckily, the drivers and teams aren’t going to have to deal with the high stakes of a superspeedway this weekend, but they are still going to be dealing with quite a bit of speed. William Byron, who came home victorious at Daytona is going to try to see another checkered flag first on Sunday. Byron was one of only 6 drivers not involved in some sort of accident at Daytona, which was a feat in and of itself. For Byron, it wasn’t necessarily a win of sheer luck. Superspeedways require a level of skill to stay out of accidents and understand the pushes, runs, and drag on these cars to remain competitive. Atlanta won’t necessarily give us the same style of racing, but we will definitely see a high level of speed nonetheless. This track is a 1.54 mile quad-oval with 24 degrees of banking through the turns and 5 degrees on the straights. Because there is still a high degree of banking, the momentum coming off the turns is tremendous with little braking happening throughout the race. We see a lot of lap traffic at Atlanta and there is even a good amount of three-wide racing. Through the years, multiple grooves have developed allowing drivers to choose where their car does best.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner at Atlanta, the strength that we saw at Daytona is pretty telling for some of these teams. In all honesty, though, we can’t take the results for truth because of the amount of carnage that occurred, taking out some of the strongest teams throughout the day. Other than Byron’s Chevrolet taking the top spot, the remainder of the top 5 drivers were Toyotas. Alex Bowman was the next best Chevrolet in 6th place followed by Blaney and Cindric in Fords to round out the top eight spots. At Atlanta last year, we didn’t see that many Toyotas in the top 10. Bubba Wallace was the best finishing ‘Yota driver in 5th position. Daniel Suarez won this race in a Chevy and was trailed by Ryan Blaney in a Ford. I think that Blaney is going to bring something to the track to win this year. He came home 7th at Daytona and was spared from the majority of the chaos. After a runner-up finish last year at Atlanta, he’s going to look to capitalize on previous success and get that checkered flag in 2025. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Atlanta this weekend with odds provided by Bovada:

Winner: Ryan Blaney +800
Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch +1200
Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez +2000

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Suarez has been hit or miss and didn’t have the best season last year outside of Atlanta. This was the one track that he was able to really soar at, bringing home a win early in the season. He will be a sleeper this weekend but certainly someone to watch. Kyle Busch, well, what can we say here? He’s fallen off the radar in recent races and is struggling to produce top-level results. Busch lacks execution and the level of assertiveness that we’re used to seeing from him. Will Atlanta bring that back to fruition? With a 7th best average finish in 6 starts, it’s possible that we can see the train turn around for this team. I’d really like to see Busch come back with some success this year after having such a rough season in 2024. Ultimately, though, Ryan Blaney comes in with the best average finish in the last 6 starts. While he doesn’t have any wins, he’s got 3 top 5s and 5 top 10s. He’s consistent, and his team knows how to bring the speed.

Blaney will have a lot of drivers to battle around, with guys like Chase Elliott and William Byron continuing to look for wins. The entire Hendrick garage is strong if we’re being honest. Notoriously, though, this is not the best track for that team, so who’s to say that HMS might struggle a touch this weekend? Atlanta is a fun track. Most of the drivers really love coming here following the chaos that is Daytona. This is a place where speed carries over, but the level of predictability is much higher. Will Blaney be able to hold off the HMS drivers and bring that Penske power to victory lane? Stay tuned for another great weekend of racing as these guys head to Atlanta Motor Speedway!