NASCAR All-Star Race Odds, Analysis, Value Picks

by | Last updated May 15, 2024 | nascar

2024 NASCAR ALL-Star Race

Race: NASCAR All-Star Open and NASCAR All-Star Race

Date: Sunday May 19, 2024

Track: North Wilkesboro Speedway

Time: 5:30 pm ET (All-Star Open) and 8 pm ET (All-Star Race)

Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

He finally got on the board! Brad Keselowski scored his first win of the 2024 season and his first win with RFK racing at Darlington Raceway! This was Keselowski’s second win at Darlington but his first win in 110 races! What a streak to break that he never wanted! Keselowski is a talented driver, but he ultimately has had many challenges since leaving Penske to start his own endeavor as a principal owner in RFK Racing. It was bittersweet as he raced door to door and clearly never let up on teammate Tyler Reddick. The two battled it out hard in the final restart on lap 261, with Reddick eventually passing Keselowski and moving in to catch leader Chris Buescher. Unfortunately, Keselowski was in the cat-bird seat for what was about to unfold. Somehow, Reddick slid up the track and failed to maintain control taking Buescher into the outside wall with him. Do you want to talk about frustration? Buescher was in position to win again this weekend. If you remember, he was beat last weekend at Kansas by Kyle Larson in the closest finish in NASCAR history. Buescher was NOT intent on letting that happen again. That is, until Reddick took him out.

For Buescher, I think that we’re seeing a clear development of a strong team and a driver that has confidence to spare. He’s come along slowly and intelligently and been patient. I’m not sure how much longer he’s going to remain that patient. While all of that unfolded and both drivers were unable to maintain speed, Ty Gibbs slid on by and nailed his best ever career finish. He was followed by Josh Berry for third, Denny Hamlin for fourth, and Chase Briscoe for fifth. That’s impressive for both Berry and Briscoe! Honestly, seeing these guys, along with Buescher, really coming into their own and nailing some consistent finishes is pretty great to see. We might just be watching the next lineup of superstars coming up the ranks. The top 10 finishers were rounded out with William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Justin Haley, and Michael McDowell. There’s another name we’ve been seeing an awful lot of lately. McDowell is also racing with intention and everything that he needs to do to stay in contention, stay clean, and be where it matters at the finish. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr. all had the misfortune on Sunday, leading to disappointing finishes.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers are headed to North Wilkesboro Speedway for a treat for everyone. The NASCAR All-Star Open and the All-Star Race are going to preface the big 600 the following Sunday. North Wilkesboro Speedway had a hiatus from the NASCAR circuit after being closed in 1996 before eventually being revitalized beginning in 2022. The track is currently pretty cool in its configuration and ultimately much different than running this race at Charlotte on an intermediate. NWS is a 0.625-mile asymmetrical oval with 13 degrees of banking in the turns and 3 degrees on the straights. Honestly, it’s a bit like Darlington in its quirkiness. Last year, we saw that tires definitely were the name of the game. We saw long green flag runs, few cautions, and difficulty in passing. I anticipate this being the same this year as well. The Open will precede the main event, with 2-60 laps heats working to set the field. The two top racers from the Open will also have the opportunity to join the All-Star Race, as the field is limited to current year race winners, last season race winners, and past All-Star Race winners. Winning a stage in the Open or winning by fan vote will also make a drive eligible.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, it’s evident that Kyle Larson literally stole the show last year. There’s something about these grassroots-type tracks that Larson thrives at. He ended up leading 145 of the last 146 laps. That should tell you something about his domination at this place. That being said, we must keep in mind that every driver had an opportunity to really learn something from last year’s first run at the track since 1996. It was basically every driver’s first time ever racing there. I think that we will see some better competition this year, hopefully with no one stepping out into a 10-second lead like Larson did last year. There were actually only 12 drivers that finished on the lead lap, so while passing was difficult, lapping was not. I think that Larson’s definitely going to be front and center, assuming he doesn’t have any issues this weekend like he did at Darlington, but I do believe that other guys will give him a little more fight than they did last year. Let’s take a look at your potential winners with betting odds provided by Bovada as these guys head into their 2nd race at NWS:

  • Winner: Kyle Larson +800
  • Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher +1400
  • Dark Horse: Josh Berry

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With Berry’s strong run at Darlington and the eccentric nature of this track, Berry might just pull one off. He’s coming off a third place finish on Sunday and is overall a strong driver. As he finds his feet with this team, he seems to be getting better and better. He proved with HMS that he had some gnarly talent. This might just be his race. Chris Buescher is over it, y’all. He’s not going to put up with the nonsense this week, if I had to guess. I imagine that he’s going to be a little more aggressive in holding his line and not allow himself to be in reckless situations if he can help it. Almost winning the last two races puts him in a position of almost desperation in wanting to win. He was so close he could taste it. Buescher isn’t going to let it walk away so easily next time. Kyle Larson is going to be front and center again, though. This guy just knows how to get it done. While Darlington was a struggle, that doesn’t mean that NWS will be too. Larson knows how to dissociate his struggles and move forward with positivity. He’s in it to win it every weekend. He’s one of those drivers who aren’t content with 2nd or 3rd place. He wants nothing less than a win. Luckily, his difficulties last weekend didn’t unseat him from the top spot in the points, but it certainly provided some motivation to look for victory lane. Let’s take a look at where these guys are sitting after Darlington:

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. William Byron
  6. Tyler Reddick
  7. Ty Gibbs
  8. Ryan Blaney
  9. Alex Bowman
  10. Ross Chastain
  11. Brad Keselowski
  12. Chris Buescher
  13. Kyle Busch
  14. Chase Briscoe
  15. Christopher Bell
  16. Bubba Wallace

Wallace remains on the bubble despite a good finish at Darlington. Hopefully, he can rebound even more at NWS. Christopher Bell is backsliding, losing two positions, and still no wins. He has some work to do moving forward to try to secure a position in the playoff group. Brad Keselowski has secured his position after winning and also jumped four positions after Darlington. He was definitely the big winner after Sunday’s race. What will NWS bring us this weekend? This isn’t a points race. This is a glory race. Will that change the way that these guys run? Will they be more aggressive as the laps dwindle down? Only time will tell. Stay tuned as these guys head to NWS for the All-Star Open!

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