Jack Link’s 500 Betting Picks & Race Predictions
Date: Sunday, April 27th, 2025
Track: Talladega Superspeedway
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Talk about domination! As predicted, Kyle Larson won both the Cup and the Xfinity races over the Bristol weekend, leading a combined 687 laps. Wow! In the Truck Series, he may not have won, but he started off the weekend hot with a runner-up finish. He beat Denny Hamlin to the line by 2.25 seconds in the Cup race, leaving everyone in his dust. No one could touch Larson this weekend. Third-place driver Ty Gibbs was 6.679 seconds behind the leader. It was truly a flawless race for Larson, who managed to take his second victory of the season and 31st of his career, dedicating it to PR representative Jon Edwards, who passed away suddenly the week prior.
Hamlin gave one of his best interviews to date, recognizing the solemnity of the weekend and giving credit where credit was due. Interestingly enough, the concerns of the drivers and teams coming into the weekend faded away after rubber started coming into the track as the laps ticked off. Where drivers couldn’t get away with 45 laps on tires in the Xfinity race, it was easy for these guys to get 100+ laps out of them during the Cup Series race. It was definitely different than predicted in terms of tire wear for the race on Sunday. Ryan Blaney actually ran 175 laps on a set of tires before coming in to pit.
The difference also amounted to the fact that there were really no cautions with the exception of the stage cautions. I think that NASCAR needs to get back to the drawing board on these short-track races to determine exactly what they can do to make things a little more competitive. It turns into a snooze-fest when the field is continuously lapped and drivers pull 2, 3, and 6 seconds away from the rest of the field. In fact, there were only nine cars remaining on the lead lap by the end of the race.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to a place where the cars perform exceptionally well, but it really doesn’t seem to matter what kind of car you bring here—it’s going to be a good race. Talladega is a 2.66-mile asphalt oval with 33 degrees of banking in the turns, 16.5 degrees in the tri-oval, and 2 degrees on the straights. There is little to no braking short of getting onto pit road, and these drivers’ biggest strategy will be making friends. Superspeedway driving is all about staying in the draft, and if you fall out, someone has to be willing to help you back in. That’s a rarity and not something that generally happens. Manufacturers will stick together and blur some team lines so long as the Fords are helping the Fords, Chevys with the Chevys, and Toyotas with the Toyotas.
Odds and Value Picks
As we head into the weekend, it’s going to be really hard to bet against our Bristol winner, but not impossible. Typically, it’s hard to say that a dominant short-track winner is going to excel at Talladega, but it’s clear that Larson is even better at the bigger tracks. Currently at +350, Larson is clearly the favorite, followed by Christopher Bell (+400), Denny Hamlin (+600), Ryan Blaney (+700), and William Byron (+700). Who is going to take the outright win on Sunday at one of NASCAR’s most beloved tracks? Let’s take a look at your potential winners below:
Winner: William Byron (+700)
Say what you want, but Byron has the average finish in recent starts and also in career starts. In his last six races, Byron has an average finish of 7.7 with two top-5s and four top-10s. Consistency is very important at Talladega. It shows that he knows how to stay out of trouble and gets his car where it needs to be on the track to avoid the inevitable “Big One.” For career starts, Byron gives us an average finish of 14.4 out of 14 starts and is 3rd for all-time best average finishes behind Kaz Grala and Anthony Alfredo, who have five total starts between the two of them. That sums that up.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+6600)
Bad Brad has had a tumultuous year to start, but we’re heading to one of his best tracks. With six total wins in 32 starts, Keselowski boasts the 8th-best average finish in career starts. Keselowski is looking for a win, and this could very well be the weekend that he needs to have. Look for Brad to be at the front on Sunday.
Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+35000)
Ricky has the 4th-best average finish in 23 total starts, just behind Byron, at 14.5. The difference is that Stenhouse Jr. has two wins here. This is one of his better tracks, with eight top-5s and 11 top-10s. If he can position himself to stay out of the wrecks, Stenhouse is set to have a solid day.
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Current Standings
- William Byron
- Denny Hamlin
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Ryan Blaney
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
- Joey Logano
- Alex Bowman
- Ross Chastain
- Chris Buescher
- Chase Briscoe
- Ryan Preece
- Kyle Busch
- AJ Allmendinger
There was no movement in or out of the top 16, with minimal movement within that group altogether. Tyler Reddick dropped two positions after Bristol, but Talladega is a place where he really shines. In fact, Reddick is the defending race winner. I wouldn’t count him out. Kyle Larson moved up two positions after his win at Bristol and is coming in hot this weekend. As a driver that traditionally does well on the larger tracks, keep him in your line of sight. These guys are going to have a great weekend of racing and will truly find out who their friends are as we head to Talladega. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of superspeedway racing!
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