Grant Park 165 Race Picks & Predictions

by | Last updated Jul 4, 2024 | nascar

Grant Park 165 Race Picks

Race: Grant Park 165
Date: Sunday, July 7th, 2024
Track: Chicago Street Race
Time: 4:30 pm ET
Channel: NBC

 

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

 
Talk about going into overtime! In a record-setting five overtime restarts, Joey Logano took home his first win of the season at Nashville securing his playoff berth for the 2024 season. The race was a crazy one with a total of 31 additional laps added to the race after a total of 15 cautions. Ultimately, it was a fuel strategy that took Logano to the checkered flag. He wasn’t even sure that he was going to get there and said that his car “stumbled” to the finish line after turn 3. He ran a total of 110 laps on the final round of fuel, which was just enough to get him the victory that he and his team so desperately needed. He crossed the line just barely in front of the Zane Smith, giving him his best ever Cup series finish, finishing just 0.068 seconds behind Logano.
 
Everyone was waiting with bated breath to figure out if the drivers were going to be able to get back out onto the track. After just 136 laps, the race was red flagged for lightening and rain. That is looking to be the theme lately. NASCAR managed to get the track clear and ready for racing, with Logano not necessarily the one in contention. In fact, Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain were the main players assuming the race would’ve ended under regulation time. Hamlin was able to beat Chastain with just seven laps to go in the regular 300-lap scheduled race, but Austin Cindric went ahead and put a damper on Denny Hamlin having a chance at a 4th victory this year. Hamlin ended up having to pit for fuel, leaving him out of contention when all was said and done. Perhaps the most disheartening end to the race was for Ross Chastain. He was wrecked out by Kyle Larson, unintentionally, when Larson’s splitter caught the apron, causing him to hit the back of Chastain and ending his day with a 33rd place finish. After coming so close to a win, it was disappointing to say the least. For Zane Smith, it was a good day, though. Although he would’ve liked to know that Logano was so close on fuel, he said he still wouldn’t have done anything differently. In the end, it was a wild race, with only one car in the top 11 in the field having won a race this year. It was anyone’s shot at getting a victory and securing their place in the playoffs, but Joey Logano managed to capitalize.
 

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

 
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to a totally different style of racing. It is their first return to Chicago for the street racing that had its inception into NASCAR last year.  The 2.2-mile asphalt circuit has 12 turns and has only hosted one Cup Series event. Interestingly enough, it was made as a concept for iRacing that ended up coming to fruition. Last year, the drivers battled wet conditions, much like the last few races we’ve seen this year. Despite what many fans complained about last year, this track allowed for a lot of passing, with the winner, Shane van Gisbergen, moving from 16th on a restart through the field. We can’t forget Kyle Busch managing to drive through the field as well to come back for a top 5 finish despite smashing into the tire barrier early in the race. The track itself is pretty interesting with elements of very sharp turns, decent straight, and good passing zones. We don’t have the elevation changes that we see with road courses, but that doesn’t mean that the drivers don’t have to be careful of equipment. Braking will be very important. One thing to note is the use of the clutch that SVG relied on so heavily versus the other drivers. That may have proved to be advantageous being that he took the checkered flag. He has a somewhat different style of driving thanks to his background in Supercars. Overall, tires and track position are huge here. With the turns and braking being so paramount, it’s not surprising that tire wear will be a story. Strategy in the pits will create some advantages and some errors if I have to guess.
 

Odds and Value Picks

 
When it comes to picking a winner, I am not sure that anyone would’ve picked SVG as the outright winner, but boy, did he make us all look bad! Even the drivers admitted that! With only one race at this track to even look at and absolutely not other street courses to compare to, we’re in a bit of a conundrum because this racing is very different from all other styles. Obviously, the road course drivers that are successful will likely be strong at a track like this, but there are still a lot of variables that differ between the two styles of tracks. That being said, there are a handful of skillful drivers to watch for that have been strong this year throughout the season. I didn’t talk about him earlier, but Christopher Bell is going to be one to watch. He won the first two stages at Nashville before getting involved in a wreck, and his year has been pretty epic so far. It seems like the further along we get in the season, the more confident and consistent he and the team are becoming. SVG is obviously our strongest C list player as the defending champion at this track. Last week’s winner, Joey Logano, came home with an 8th place finish here last year, so we can’t count him out. And how do we not mention Kyle Larson? He’s always in contention, like it or not. He had a solid run here last year, coming home in 4th place. Aside from some weird circumstances, Larson is always at the front playing the game to win each and every week. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s second ever running of the Grant Park 165 (odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook):
 

  • Winner: Christopher Bell +650
  • Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs +1600
  • Dark Horse: Shane van Gisbergen +450

 
As I said, SVG clearly the class of the field and will absolutely have some dominating factor due to his skillset and experience. His ability to race on styles of tracks like this are second nature to him. The ovals throw him off. Look for him to be at the top of his game once again entering this weekend’s race. Ty Gibbs came home with a 9th place finish in this race last year. He’s been running better and better this year, really holding steady in the points, currently sitting in 10th place. He’s still looking for that elusive win to lock him into the playoffs this year, so this will be a good opportunity to show off some of this skills at a different track. Christopher Bell is going to be tough to beat, though. With three wins this season so far, he’s looking to add another. His consistency speaks for itself. He’s got nine total stage wins, 11 top 10s, and 6 top 5 finishes. He’s led a total of 582 laps altogether this year. I don’t think the 4 DNFs are representative of his skillset. From what I’ve seen, he’s been a victim of his circumstances. Even still, with 4 DNFs, he’s sitting securely in 6th place. He didn’t lose any positions after his unfortunate weekend at Nashville. So where is everyone sitting after what was a pretty wild weekend? Let’s take a look at our current standings as these guys head north to Chicago:
 

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tyler Reddick
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Christopher Bell
  7. William Byron
  8. Ryan Blaney
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Ty Gibbs
  11. Ross Chastain
  12. Chris Buescher
  13. Alex Bowman
  14. Joey Logano
  15. Bubba Wallace
  16. Chase Briscoe

 
There wasn’t a whole lot of movement in the points this weekend despite the craziness that was Nashville. Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, and Chris Buescher all managed to gain a position. That came at the expense of drivers like Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Martin Truex Jr. There was no change when it came to drivers on the bubble. Kyle Busch is still sitting in 17th, looking to find a way to redemption for his season so far. For a driver that flat-out dominated for so long, it’s hard to imagine, but he’s only got five top-10 finishes this year. He has no wins and 4 DNFs. Ironically, that’s the same number as Bell, but you can see Bell has a much different set of top 5s, 10s, and wins. In fact, Busch doesn’t even have a stage win so far in 2024. That’s pretty hard to believe. Maybe Chicago will be kinder to him, and he can reclaim some sort of name for himself. Who knows? This weekend is set to be a little crazy if last weekend at Nashville and last year at Chicago are any indications. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of street racing as these guys tackle the roads of Chicago!