Goodyear 400 Race Picks & Analysis

by | Last updated May 13, 2024 | nascar

2023 Goodyear 400 Race

Race: Goodyear 400
Date: Sunday May 12, 2024
Track: Darlington Raceway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Wow! Talk about a photo finish! We had the Derby on Saturday night with one of the closest finishes in history and then, as predicted, Kyle Larson made headlines on Sunday with his photo finish victory over Chris Buescher after a last lap battle. They were definitely racing as hard as they possibly could back to the line, but Larson edged out Buescher when it mattered most. Some are questioning Larson’s tactics, as he appeared to come down on the #17 down the front stretch, but there were definitely moments that Buescher squeezed and blocked Larson along the way as well. Larson managed to make a hole at the very top of the track before Buescher could completely close it up. That was all he needed to make a run and get to the checkered flag 0.001 seconds over Buescher. This is being marked as the closest finish in all of NASCAR history!

I give a lot of credit to that No. 17 team. They really brought an amazing car to the track, and Buescher is truly coming into his own. He will absolutely see victory lane very soon. Buescher was a contender in the Chase last year and is holding strong in his contention this year. The race ended up having 7 cautions for a total of 43 laps after a relatively quiet first stage. Something happened after that, though, causing a chain reaction, ending with Kyle Busch’s late race spin. The race went into overtime at that point, and all of the efforts for a fuel strategy went out the window. Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin rounded out the top five spots. Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Noah Gragson, and Michael McDowell finished out the top ten. Can we talk about Gragson and McDowell for a minute? I spoke on Gragson a week or so ago. He’s got the talent. He needs his maturity to match, and it seems like it might be coming together for him. McDowell is just doing a phenomenal job and getting his car where it needs to be. This was a much needed and well deserved top 10 run. Kyle Busch, despite his hardships in the closing laps managed an 8th place run. With his difficulties so far this year, this team definitely needs to focus on some strong finishes.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the teams are heading to Darlington to attempt their best finishes at the Lady in Black. Darlington can be a tough track, giving little grace to those that are inexperienced. It’s a place that requires quite a bit of talent, patience, and overall skill. To come away from the track without the Darlington stripe almost means you didn’t try hard enough. Drivers often battle so hard against the track that the walls almost suck them up and leave them with a relic to go home with in the form of a nice stripe on the right sides of their cars. This track is a 1.366 asphalt oval with 25 degrees of banking in turns 1 and 2, 23 degrees of banking in turns 3 and 4, just 3 degrees on the front stretch and very mild 2 degrees on the back stretch. Based on those stats, you can imagine the possible difficulties in maintaining good tires. Drivers are constantly battling the track even more than other drivers, which causes quite the wear and tear on their equipment. The key here is to get to the front and to stay there. Lap traffic becomes a nuisance in trying to catch the leaders, so drivers will need to try their best to maintain position and move when they see the opportunity.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, well, it’s hard to go against our top two drivers the last couple of races. Both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are extremely strong and have a good record at this track. Our winner at Kansas has the 6th best average finish at this track in the last three years including a win and two additional top fives. Denny Hamlin has very similar stats, with the only difference being a slightly better average finish of 11th versus 12th. Between these two drivers for total career finishes at Darlington, Hamlin edges Larson but he also has 4 total wins compared to Larson’s single. Thats not to say that Larson can’t get another one this weekend, but with the way both drivers have been consistently running, I think Hamlin has the edge this weekend. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners heading into Sunday’s race:

  • Winner: Denny Hamlin
  • Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher
  • Dark Horse: Erik Jones

Erik Jones favors a few tracks, and Darlington is definitely one of them. With 12 career starts, Jones has two victories here and the fifth best average finishing position among all drivers. Five top 5s and 8 top 10s are really nothing to sneeze at. If Jones is going to be a winner anywhere, this is his weekend. Buescher is just hungry for more. He is showing us all that he is here to stay. This isn’t notoriously his best track, but, quite frankly, nothing has been. He’s building his confidence and truly showing us what he’s all about as we continue into the 2024 season. Buescher is going to be someone to watch as the year goes on. I’m excited to see where he ends up this season. He’s got the 13th best average finish 1 top 5 and 4 top 10s. Look for him to have another very strong run on Sunday. Denny Hamlin will be the guy he has to chase down this weekend, though. With Hamlin’s consistent finishes and overall runs this year coupled with his previous success at Darlington, he’s going to be tough to beat. Both him and Buescher are coming off some strong finishes at Kansas to boot. Where does that put us for the standings? Let’s take a look where everyone is sitting after last weekend’s race:

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Chase Elliott
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Tyler Reddick
  6. Ryan Blaney
  7. William Byron
  8. Ty Gibbs
  9. Alex Bowman
  10. Ross Chastain
  11. Chris Buescher
  12. Kyle Busch
  13. Christopher Bell
  14. Chase Briscoe
  15. Brad Keselowski
  16. Bubba Wallace

Wallace, Byron, and Busch dropped one position each while Christopher Bell was the big winner of a 4 position gain. Chris Buescher’s run gave him a solid 3 position jump in the standings. The biggest loser of the day, though, was Joey Logano who lost 4 spots, dropping him out of the top 16 into 17th place. Logano and his team have some work to do in the coming weeks.

This might just be the weekend that he can pull something together. The last three years have put Logano at the top of the board for best average finishes, with one of those being a win. Will he be able to carry a little redemption this weekend as the teams head to Darlington or will it be another Gibbs and Larson show? You better believe that Larson isn’t going to leave anything on the table either. This should certainly be a great race as the drivers do their best to figure out how to leave the track too tough to tame unscathed. Stay tuned for an awesome afternoon of racing at Darlington Raceway!