Goodyear 400 at Darlington: Expert Predictions & Race Insights
Race: Goodyear 400
Date: Sunday, April 6, 2025
Track: Darlington Raceway
Time: 3 pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Martinsville was dominated by none other than Denny Hamlin! He not only won, but he led a race-high 274 laps, allowing him to capture his 55th career Cup Series win. He certainly let everyone know he was there to win, whereas guys that we expected to do well struggled for the better part of the race. Ryan Blaney definitely didn’t have the setup that he needed and was really unable to advance out of 10th place for most of the day. He ended the day in 11th place. Josh Berry’s race began with high hopes and a strong early performance, but a series of unfortunate events led to a disappointing 33rd-place finish. Brad Keselowski, who usually remains pretty competitive around this track, also struggled and came home 37th. The driver and team with the biggest difficulties actually came after the race when Erik Jones was disqualified altogether after his car came back from post-race inspection as too light.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Darlington is another unique track that the drivers are going to have to conquer this weekend. This 1.366 mile asphalt oval is shaped like an egg. Its configuration is due to not wanting to disturb a pond on one side of the track during construction, so hence, we now have an egg-shaped track! Turns one and two boast 25 degrees of banking, with three and four at 22 degrees. The stretches have a mild 6 degrees. Track position is absolutely king at this Darlington. Much like Richmond, it is so important to get to the front of the pack and not fall victim to the drivers that get muddled up mid-pack. That “Darlington Stripe”, well, that’s a badge of honor resulting from the incessant “Lady in Black” that will swallow a driver up to that outside wall if they get too loose at any point on this track. Ultimately, if the drivers can outrace the track, they will have to take care of their tires and get to the front of the pack using pit strategy and a strong package with their cars to get to victory lane.
Odds and Value Picks
In most recent finishes, there are several drivers on a pretty equal playing field with average finishes here at Darlington. Since 2022, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Christopher Bell are all pretty equal, with 2 top 5 finishes and an average finish of around 10th. The difference is that both Byron and Logano have wins. Brad Keselowski also won here and had the 4th-best average finish. Not surprising, however, is Denny Hamlin having the best overall finish in career starts at Darlington. He’s also got four total wins. Can he capitalize on his win at Martinsville and bring the momentum to the track this weekend? Get our picks and odds provided by Bovada
- Winner: Denny Hamlin (+650)
- Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski (+3300)
- Dark Horse: Josh Berry (+3300)
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Winner: Denny Hamlin
It’s hard to count him out again with a record as strong as he has in comparison to the rest of the field. He’s finished in the top 5 spots 52% of the time and in the top 10 72% of the time! That’s incredible. He’s currently running below Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick for outright picks, but at +650, he’s still a strong contender.
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski
As a 2-time winner, Keselowski has Darlington figured out. Experience is what it takes to really get around this track successfully, and he’s your guy in that department. Despite a challenging weekend at Martinsville, Keselowski is here to prove his value. Just looking at his most recent finishes, he’s up there at 6.3 and is the defending winner of the last Spring race at this track. At +3300, Keselowski will give you a nice payout if he manages to defend his title.
Dark Horse: Josh Berry
Interestingly enough, Berry is also sitting at +3300, but that’s because of his lack of racing in the Cup Series altogether. Last Spring, he came home with one of his best finishes of the season in 3rd place at this track and is looking to do better than that on Sunday. As a newly crowned Cup Series race winner, Berry has a lot going for him, and he’s proving that he can handle these cars in ways that some of these other guys can’t. Don’t count Berry out. He will be running for a win this weekend.
Here’s a look at your current standings after the race at Martinsville:
Current Standings:
- William Byron
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Christopher Bell
- Alex Bowman
- Denny Hamlin
- Tyler Reddick
- Bubba Wallace
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Chase Briscoe
- Ross Chastain
- Ryan Preece
- Michael McDowell
- Kyle Busch
Busch moved back into the top 16 after Martinsville and has another opportunity to make some gains with his experience at Darlington. Our top 3 spots are dominated by HMS, and notice that the first Ford is the #22 of Joey Logano in 9th place. It’s a packed house of Toyota and Chevys in the top 8 spots. Who will make some moves in the standings this weekend? The Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway will surely give us quite the show!
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