Go Bowling at The Glen Race Preview & Picks

Race: Go Bowling at The Glen
Date: Sunday August 20, 2023
Track: Watkins Glen International
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Michael McDowell seems to have a theory on winning. Go big or go home! His first win came at the 2021 Daytona 500. He is following that up with a second win at the IMS road course this past Sunday. In true champion fashion, McDowell maintained his composure and kept his cool as Chase Elliott tried to run him down on the final lap, beating him by nearly a full second when all was said and done. Surprisingly, there was only one restart on lap six throughout the entire race. McDowell took full advantage and passed pole-sitter Daniel Suarez to take the lead and never really looked back. He was bested a few times by other drivers during pit stops, but that never held him back from retaining the lead. His car was a powerhouse. It was evident that they were dialed in the entire race. In fact, McDowell led 54 of the total 82 laps.

For Elliott, it was clearly the most disappointing runner-up finish he could have. He’s 80 points outside of the top 16, which means he can’t possibly point his way in. Right now, with McDowell locking himself into the playoffs, there are really only Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suarez who have a shot at that final spot. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski don’t have a win yet, but they are well above the cut line. Theoretically, one or both of them could be knocked out if we have a different winner in the final two races of the regular season. The likelihood of that happening is slim to none, but it’s still a possibility. Bubba is on the bubble right now. Ty Gibbs could potentially point his way in, but, again, unlikely. Currently, Chase Elliott really needs that win. It was evident that he wanted it this weekend, but he’s going to have to give it all he’s got in the next two races. I’m not the biggest fan of how NASCAR sets up these last few races. I haven’t figured out why all of the races where finishes can truly be left to chance are all in a row.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to yet another road course. Watkins Glen is hosting the NASCAR series on Sunday. Watkins Glen has been on the roster of races for quite a long time, though. I always wondered why they kept incorporating more and more road courses and took away some of the most historical tracks and races along the way. IMS, for example, is cool, but it definitely does not hold a candle to the places like Sonoma and Watkins Glen. The difference is definitely in the configurations and steep climbs through the more historic courses. IMS has a much more Indy-style feel. Imagine that! The Roval at Charlotte is also similar due to the lack of banking and level of difficulty. That being said, I do enjoy Watkins Glen, although I might be a little biased due to the previous success of drivers like Jeff Gordon. I really enjoyed watching these guys get together on the road courses back when they could move each other without wrecking each other and having to fight after the race. It was definitely a lot more respectable. But I digress. Watkins Glen will surely give us something to enjoy on Sunday. The track configuration used for the NASCAR series is the “short loop.” This configuration is 2.454 miles 7 (or 11) turns, depending on the way you look at it. There are basically four turns within the inner loop, leading to a sweeping turn 9, a long stretch to turn 10, and a short stretch to turn 11, followed by another long run to the start and finish.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner here, it seems Shane van Gisbergen and Michael McDowell are hell-bent on throwing a wrench on the road courses for us. Watkins Glen might not be so easy since it’s more of a veteran’s type course. Many of these guys have run here for years and years, Kyle Larson being one of them. In fact, Larson is the defending winner of the last two races here (2021 and 2022). He’s also won at Sonoma and won on the Roval at Charlotte. So far, for 2023, he hasn’t been as impressive in on-the-road courses. That’s not to say he wasn’t good. He finished 8th at both IMS and Sonoma and had a respectable 14th-place finish at COTA. The thing is, even though he’s top 5 in the points, he hasn’t been the most consistent driver. He’s struggled in many races, finishing anywhere from 1st to 36th so far. I think that he’s definitely got a strong shot this weekend, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him. The team is going to have to bring a strong car to the track as well, with very few pit road errors. Let’s take a look at your potential winners as we head into another wild weekend of racing for these guys with odds by Bovada:

• Winner: Chase Elliott +350
• Mid-Range Pick: AJ Allmendinger +1400
• Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez +1000

Suarez has had his fair share of struggles this year and is still trying to grab a spot in the top 16. After a much more dominating past couple of years, Suarez is looking for a little redemption, and this road course might just provide that for him. After a strong run at IMS and starting on the pole, don’t count him out. He’s got the 9th-best finishing average at 12.0. In 5 starts, he’s got 3 top 5 finishes. He’ll be looking for another strong run come Sunday. AJ Allmendinger has also had another year of struggle, certainly not having his best runs. This track is another option for a strong run for him, though, as well. With a 9.2 average finish, he’s 4th best at this track with one win and four top 5s. Look for the Dinger to have one of his better runs this weekend. As much as I hate picking the same driver two weeks in a row, it’s warranted when it comes to Elliott. Though Larson won the last two races, Elliott has the best average finish at 5.7. He’s also got two wins and 4 top 5s in his last six starts. The guy knows something about getting around this place. With his success at this track coupled with the absolute necessity of getting a win to have his shot at the championship this year, I really do think that Elliott is our guy to beat. Let’s see how the points are shaping up with just two races remaining before the playoff field is set:

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. William Byron
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Larson
5. Kyle Busch
6. Ross Chastain
7. Christopher Bell
8. Chris Buescher
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Tyler Reddick
11. Joey Logano
12. Michael McDowell
13. Kevin Harvick
14. Brad Keselowski
15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
16. Bubba Wallace

It’s going to be a hard-fought battle for all of the drivers this weekend. There are only two races remaining, and I’m pretty sure no one wants to put their eggs all in one basket, with Daytona closing out the regular season. A superspeedway is never a safe bet. Will we see another new winner bumping Wallace out of contention? Will we have a repeat and some strong finishes making the stage points all the more valuable? It could be all of the above. We’ll all have to wait and see. Stay tuned for an awesome day of road course racing as these guys battle it out at Watkins Glen!

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