FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Predictions & Analysis

by Virginia Vroom | Last updated Aug 2, 2023 | nascar

Race: FireKeepers Casino 400
Date: Sunday, August 6, 2023
Track: Michigan International Speedway
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Well, Richmond almost went caution free. Noah Gragson and Daniel Suarez got into each other, causing the only natural caution of the race. Prior to that, only the stage cautions gave these guys any opportunity to close the gap. At one point, the leader had over 5 seconds on the rest of the field. It seems the more NASCAR changes these cars, the less interesting the short tracks become. It’s hard to pass and a challenge to get through traffic at times, although most of the field tends to turn into lap traffic at Richmond these days. As expected, tires played a huge role in the race this weekend. Kyle Larson actually took advantage of that, generously helping Denny Hamlin move out of the way at one point. Unfortunately, Larson was never able to get his car dialed in and had a very lackluster day when all was said and done. The Fords were the impressive car this weekend, anyway. There were 4 Fords in the top 6 spot. Just when we all thought Ford was bottom of the barrel, they pulled something special out at a track that no one expected them to really thrive at. It was a big turnaround for the manufacturer, who’s seen its share of struggles since this newest car was released.

Chris Buescher was able to drive his Ford into victory lane on Sunday despite his previous feelings of wishing Richmond would just “flood.” He pretty much hated this track. Suffice to say he may feel a little differently now. For RFK, this was a much-needed victory, propelling the confidence of an organization that has historically struggled in the last few years. If you really think about it, though, think about what Brad Keselowski brings to the table. A NASCAR champion now driver/owner bringing the best of both worlds. Keselowski has definitely elevated the organization as a whole, despite some good runs of bad luck. This weekend, it appears they are on to something good, though. Keselowski wasn’t far behind his teammate. Buescher took the checkers, followed by Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Ryan Preece. Keselowski ended up in 6th, followed by Martin Truex Jr., Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, and Kevin Harvick. For Preece, it was a great finish. He needs to keep his attitude in check for the races to come, but if he can manage to do that, we might see some pretty strong runs from the guy.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, we are headed to a completely different track. Richmond was the last short track of the regular season. Only four races remain before the playoffs, and with the exception of Michigan, the others are a doozy. We have two road courses and a superspeedway on the roster for the remainder of the season. The hint of normalcy happens this weekend as the drivers and teams take on Michigan for the last remaining intermediate track before the playoffs. Michigan is a 2-mile D-shaped oval with moderate 18-degree banking through the turns, 12 degrees at the start/finish, and just 5 degrees on the backstretch. When all is said and done, track position is king. Michigan is a track where the drivers can spread out and really use a lot of the track to pass. There are a lot of different grooves that have come into play over the years at this track, so it’ll be very interesting to see who chooses which lane. Kyle Larson used to run the high lines, running the wall on these intermediates, but his strategy has changed a bit as the years have gone on.

Odds and Value Picks

In the most recent races, there is one driver with a clearly better track average than the rest. Kevin Harvick, although bested in average finish by Denny Hamlin, has three wins at this track since 2020. He’s figured something out because he has 42 starts here with a total of 6 wins. With half of those coming in the last three years, watch out. Kyle Larson and Joey Logano also have multiple wins here, three each, in fact. Denny Hamlin has won here twice in 32 starts, with Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney being the only other remaining active drivers with wins. Overall, Chase Elliott actually has the best average finish based on all starts. He doesn’t have a win here, and that could be telling. With his struggles on and off the track this year, this might prove to continue to be an elusive track for him. That being said, he’s also a driver that absolutely must win to get into the playoffs, so it might get a little squirrely on the track as these guys really have to battle it out. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Michigan:

Winner: Joey Logano +1200
Mid-Range Pick: Kevin Harvick +850
Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +20000

Briscoe only has two starts at Michigan, boasting an average finish of around 15th. Overall, he’s actually got the 11th-best average finish. With so few races under his belt, they tell us that he’s someone to look out for. I don’t think he lucked into those finishes. Briscoe takes the slow and steady approach, and he will likely pick his way through the field on Sunday as well. With his only way into the playoffs being a win, Briscoe might be able to throw a Hail Mary this weekend. Kevin Harvick is still looking for a win this season, and this might be his golden ticket. With six total wins, he’s got something figured out here. Also, keep in mind that Kansas and Michigan are very similar tracks. Harvick’s record at Kansas is nothing to sneeze at, either. He’s got 19 top-10 finishes and three wins at Kansas. This configuration clearly suits him, so pay close attention to where he qualifies and how long it takes him to get to the front of the pack. Logano will be up front looking for the win as well. As a whole, Logano has an average finish of around 12th with three wins total in 26 starts. Although he’s got a win this season, locking him into the playoffs, the team could use some momentum as they close out the regular season. Logano has a top-5 finish coming out of Richmond and is looking to capitalize on a high horsepower track with his No. 22 Toyota. Let’s see exactly where these guys stand as they eagerly await the final four races of the regular season:

Martin Truex Jr.
William Byron
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Kyle Larson
Ross Chastain
Christopher Bell
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
Tyler Reddick
Chris Buescher
Kevin Harvick
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Brad Keselowski
Bubba Wallace
Michael McDowell

McDowell is only 18 points above the cut line right now. Currently, all winners this year are already inside the top 16, but there are a handful without a guarantee. Those guys include McDowell, Wallace, Keselowski, and Harvick. I think, realistically; it’s safe to say that Keselowski and Harvick still have a big shot at potentially getting a win. They’re showing up to play every week, with Michigan being a strong track for both of those drivers. Who’s going to make the most of it and be able to truly capitalize on the opportunity this weekend? We’ll have to wait and see. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing as the drivers and teams head to Michigan International Speedway!

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