Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Analysis & Free Picks
Race: Enjoy Illinois 300
Date: Sunday June 2, 2024
Track: Worldwide Technology Raceway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend
Kyle Larson did his best, but even in his efforts, plans were foiled as rain took over at Charlotte, leading NASCAR to call the race early. Just as Larson rolled into the track, he never had an opportunity to get in his car. His 18th-place finish at Indy was a disappointment simply because of errors outside of his control. Honestly, he likely would’ve had a much better finish had those errors been mitigated. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at Indy again next year. The guy can just drive anything. Regardless, Christopher Bell was the lucky recipient of the win at Charlotte. I will say, it was evident that he was a strong contender regardless of rain. People can say what they want, but after leading 90 laps and winning stage 2, Bell clearly had a dominating performance going at the time. Unfortunately, lightening and a heavy rainstorm ended the race after just 249 of the intended 400 laps. Brad Keselowski was the runner-up…again. This is his third-place finish this season, so he’s definitely showing some strength and consistency. It was clear he was disappointed, as he thought he had the faster car. That didn’t matter, though. He didn’t get the long run he needed to watch it play out. William Byron came in third, followed by Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin to round out the top 5 spots.
Overall, it was a pretty solid race. Pole winner Ty Gibbs finished 6th. He led a total of 74 laps, second to Bell. Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry rounded out the top 10. For Berry, it was a great run and one of his best for his first full-time run in the NASCAR Cup Series. Unfortunately, Berry and his teammates are going to have their work cut out for them as SHR announced this week that they are dissolving their team and selling their charters after the 2024 season. It seems like Stewart and Haas have too many irons in the fire. With limited success in the last few years, Stewart has been focusing on NHRA with his wife and will take over driving next year. Haas has his hands in F1 racing and has for quite some time. It seems like the focus on NASCAR just wasn’t what it needed to be, and to no fault of the SHR drivers and teams, they are going to have to figure something out moving forward. The best defense they have is to perform at a high standard and make themselves valuable to anyone looking. For Berry, it’s just a bump in the road. Although he is just getting started in his Cup Series career, he has a decorated late model and ARCA series career. He has a long runway in front of him and should likely have no issues with getting a ride next year.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are taking a break from the traditional intermediate oval and heading to Illinois for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway. This track is a pretty cool place and something relatively new to the NASCAR Cup Series. Although it’s been part of NASCAR since 1997, the Cup Series have only run here a total of 3 times. The Xfinity and Truck Series have a lot of time on this track, but the Cup drivers don’t have nearly the seat time. Truth be told, this place reminds me a lot of Darlington in its shape. It’s an oval/egg-shaped track. It’s a 1.25 mile asphalt track with 11 degrees of banking in turns 1 and 2 and just 9 degrees through 3 and 4. The next-gen cars seem to struggle a bit with the track, so we’ll have to see how they fare this weekend. Last year, we saw some equipment issues rear their head throughout the race, with Bubba Wallace having a catastrophic brake rotor failure. Other drivers struggled with staying out of the wall due to tire issues or just getting together at the end of the race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was one of those drivers. He’s looking to have a strong run this weekend. He ran inside the top 10 for much of the race last year, but he was involved in a late-race incident. He’s got a good shot at a strong run this weekend if he can steer clear of the chaos.
Odds and Value Picks
It seems like this track is a track that requires some veteran skill. Akin to Darlington, the shape creates its own battles for these drivers. They need to worry about staying off the wall, especially with the varying degrees of banking and the narrowness at one end of the track. Braking is important, as Wallace found out last year. This isn’t a throttle-wide-open type of track. It’s going to take some skill and some strategy to navigate. Last year, Kyle Busch came away victorious, which isn’t terribly surprising based on his strengths at this odd-ball tracks and his way of driving over the years. Joey Logano took the checkered flag in the inaugural race. What I will say is that I don’t think either of these guys is going to be a strong contender this weekend. I think that they will have respectable runs, but there are going to be others at the front of the helm. Logano and Busch have been less than consistent this year, and we’re just not seeing the strength and success from those guys that we did previously. As Stenhouse let Busch know, he’s just not as good as he once was. I found it more amusing that Busch didn’t challenge that fact and just rolled with it. Regardless, let’s take a look at your potential winners as these guys head into the weekend with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:
- Winner: Kyle Larson
- Mid-Range Pick: Ross Chastain
- Dark Horse: Josh Berry
Berry doesn’t have any Cup experience at this track, but based on his finishes this year, he’s got something for us. He also had a very strong third-place run at Darlington, which is very similar to this track. I think that 2024 might just be the year that Berry gets his first Cup win, and WWTR might give him a good shot. Ross Chastain has been struggling on and off this year, but the last few weeks, the team has seemingly come together to create some momentum. His average finish between 2 races at this track is 15th, but I believe we will see him best this finish this weekend. Kyle Larson is going to be coming in hot. He’s got the 5th best average finish here among active drivers, with one top 5 and one top 10. He’s been on a tear this year, and this is going to give him a great shot at a win. Larson is also coming off a weekend that didn’t go as planned. He seems to come off those weekends in a way that produces some serious results in the races that follow. Look for Larson to be the class of the field on this Sunday’s race. Not only is Larson looking for redemption from this weekend, but he’s looking to regain the top spot of the leaderboard. Due to not starting the race Sunday at Charlotte, Larson will also require a waiver to be eligible to participate in the playoffs. I don’t think that will be a problem, but he’s put himself at a slight disadvantage when all is said and done. Let’s see where everyone is sitting in the rankings after the 600:
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- William Byron
- Tyler Reddick
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Brad Keselowski
- Ross Chastain
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Bubba Wallace
- Kyle Busch
- Chris Buescher
- Chase Briscoe
Larson dropped two spots and relinquished the top spot to Denny Hamlin. That’s a hard hit. Chris Buescher also had a rough weekend and lost four positions, edging him closer to the bubble spot. Bubba Wallace regained some valuable territory, and Christopher Bell was the winner of the weekend, literally and figuratively. He secured his position on the playoffs and moved from 15th to 11th. This weekend, we will likely see some more movement in and out of the top 16. It seems like the spots are more fluid than usual, and these drivers are going to have to start stepping up to the plate and working on solid runs to secure points. Stay tuned as these guys battle it out for just the third time ever at WWTR for a great race this Sunday!