EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

by | Last updated Mar 22, 2023 | nascar

EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Race Predictions
Race: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Date: Sunday March 26, 2023

Track: Circuit Of The Americas

Time: 3:30pm ET

Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

So, I don’t like Denny Hamlin, but volunteering to pay for Josh Williams’ fines was pretty epic. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, google Josh Williams. Long story short, NASCAR told him to park his car, so he parked it. On the track. And left. It was great. It’s what we need to see more drivers doing. I’m tired of the catering to these pansy rules that NASCAR sees fit to enforce on their watch. It’s time for the drivers and teams to have more autonomy like they did back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. We saw a little bit of that style of driving in the closing laps at Atlanta last weekend. Joey Logano earned his first win of the season, passing Brad Keselowski on the last lap in a clean battle and no overtime for once. It was a bit refreshing to see the race end on a green flag and not a green/white/checkered finish.

Although Keselowski was clearly disappointed, it was bittersweet to see a Ford win and break the dominance of Chevrolet and Hendrick teams in the last few races. Logano had a dominant car all day, leading a race high 141 of 260 laps. Although Logano managed to pass Keselowski with 34 to go, it was a bottom lane/top lane battle between the cars. The bottom lane had a strong run, but Logano managed to get passed Keselowski for a final time. Those two guys are exceptionally good at blocking, and despite popular opinion, they’re clean racers. It’s other drivers (who shall remain nameless) that tend to get aggravated and can’t seem to keep their cool and drive cleanly themselves. Regardless, for Logano, this was his first win at what he calls a second hometown track. Keselowski, Christopher Bell, Corey Lajoie, and Tyler Reddick rounded out the top five. It was a career best finish for Lajoie and a huge accomplishment for that entire team. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Ty Gibbs, and Kyle Busch were the remainder of the top ten. What a great day for Jones and Gibbs. The young guns are starting to show some strength.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, we’re going to have to see some different strength and skill. We are headed to our first road course of the year for the drivers and teams. This will be the third year that NASCAR is running on Circuit of the Americas. This is a 3.426-mile asphalt track in Austin, TX with a total of 20 turns. There are 3 total stages. The first stage is 15 laps, second stage is 17, and third stage is 36 laps. Road courses are their own type of beast. I like seeing road courses more and more only because we have such limited opportunity to see driver skill these days in the NASCAR world. The road course will give us a good idea of who is truly a wheelman.

Odds and Value Picks

Previous winners include Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott. Elliott actually won the first one, but the race was race shortened, so that’s something to keep in mind. Chastain won a race in overtime. Maybe this weekend will give us a race finishing under normal conditions. Maybe not. It *is* a road course. They tend to be pretty eventful. Tires are essential in road courses. You will see what a huge strategy this plays on the course of the race. Tires will play into track position, which is critical. The race off pit road after tires will be fierce. It’s immensely hard to pass on road course without being forcible. There aren’t many clean options to get around other drivers either. With so many turns across this track and the bump stops, there are only so many strategic passing zones. That means that drivers will need to be at the bumper before getting to those zones which can be a feat in and of itself. Lap cars are a big hinderance in passing as well. So many drivers are just trying to stay on the lead lap or stay in that lucky dog position, but it’s easier said than done.

When it comes to picking a winner here, we have to take a look at the only 2 races we’ve had. As I mentioned before, Elliott won the rain shortened 2021 race while Ross Chastain won the 2022 race that went into overtime. Another consideration with any road course that goes into overtime is fuel mileage. So often, these teams are down to the lap when it comes to these types of tracks, so the threat of overtime can be devastating with 2 extra laps, especially when the laps culminate into an over 3 mile distance. Elliott and his team have done a good job in the past with fuel mileage strategy. In fact, he’s probably the best active driver on road courses with 7 total wins at most tracks with only Sonoma and Indy eluding him. But we also have to look at the other drivers and teams who have done well across the board on all road courses. Not to mention, Elliott won’t be running this weekend due to his injury. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are top notch road course racers. They both have 4 wins, followed by Kyle Larson with 3, and Kevin Harvick with 2. Let’s take a look at your potential winners and their odds from Bovada heading into COTA this weekend:

  • Winner: Kyle Larson +650
  • Mid-Range Pick: AJ Allmendinger +1200
  • Dark Horse: Kevin Harvick +3000

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Allmendinger is also a great road course driver. If there’s anywhere this guy is going to win in the Cup Series, it’s on a road course. Although he’s never won here, he’s got a win on the Indy road course along with a win at Watkins Glen. Although rarely a favorite, this dark horse could get you a very large payout if he pulls it off this weekend. Kevin Harvick is another driver that can fare well here. Although he’s never won at COTA, the man can drive a car. He’s got 2 wins on road courses and is driving much more consistently this year. In his final season, I wouldn’t be surprised if a winning streak starts here for this team. While they are working on that, Kyle Larson will be working on his first chance at a win here. With so much success on the road courses, the Hendrick drivers are looking at this weekend as a period of redemption after the entire organization was hammered with penalties. Generally speaking, anytime a driver or team is rained on by NASCAR, they seem to always come out the gate with a fire lit and ready to take on anything coming at them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Larson does just that this weekend in Texas. He’s looking to secure a spot in the playoffs too! Let’s see where everyone stands after the race at Atlanta:

  • William Byron
  • Joey Logano
  • Kyle Busch
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  • Christopher Bell
  • Ross Chastain
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Daniel Suarez
  • Austin Cindric
  • Chris Buescher
  • Corey Lajoie
  • Tyler Reddick

Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson both suffered tremendously under the penalties sanctioned by NASCAR. They are currently sitting 21st and 32nd, respectively. They have a lot of ground to make up. Larson could definitely take care of any playoff concerns this weekend if he can get out front and stay there. He will have the likes of Harvick, Chastain, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. on his tail. Let’s see how these guys shape up. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing as the drivers and teams battle it out on the first road course of the season at COTA!