Daytona 500 Predictions: Expert NASCAR Picks & Betting Preview

Race: Daytona 500
Date: Sunday, February 16th, 2025
Track: Daytona International Speedway
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Channel: FOX

This weekend is the weekend we race fans have been waiting for! 

The Great American Race is coming up this Sunday, with drivers already in Daytona for the Duels that are happening Thursday. There’s been a lot of commotion and action across the track so far this week, with drivers and teams preparing themselves for the inaugural race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. While the exhibition race a couple of weeks ago was fun, there is nothing like racing at Daytona to get everyone back on their feet and on the edges of their seats. The Cookout Clash at Bowman Gray did keep everyone pretty entertained if I do say so myself. It was fun watching these cars try to navigate around a quarter-mile track and manage to stay facing the right direction. There was plenty of paint swapped, and many cars moved out of the way throughout the race. Ultimately, Chase Elliott came away the winner, with Ryan Blaney charging late in the race but unable to make it happen.

Those two guys at the front of the pack are going to be drivers to watch as we head into Sunday’s big race. Although Daytona is a totally different beast, both Elliott and Blaney have a lot going for them when it comes to their chances of victory at the 500. Blaney will have to take some notes because Elliott pulled away 1.333 seconds to take the checkered flag at Bowman Gray, but there was a lot of lap traffic that played into Elliott’s favor. Daytona will likely not produce that same grace. Superspeedway racing produces much different racing styles, with most drivers maintaining the lead lap, sometimes just left behind in a second or third pack. In recent years, Daytona (and Talladega) have proven that these newer cars run better in bigger packs. We don’t see much in the way of tandem racing, with manufacturers still working closely together to produce the best track position.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Daytona is a 2.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 31 degrees of banking through the turns, 18 degrees in the tri-oval, and 3 degrees on the back straightaway. It’s a touch smaller than Talladega, but the speeds remain high. Drivers do not touch their brakes during this race, with gas pedals to the floor and rarely leaving. The high banking through the turns allows the drivers to carry their momentum and have little need to lift. Remember that time when Brad Keselowski said he “doesn’t lift”? This is that type of track. Drivers used to lock bumpers and push each other, hence the term “bump drafting” across these superspeedways. With the current configuration of these cars, however, we don’t see that happening like it used to. Safety precautions outweigh unbridled horsepower these days. While 200+mph is absolutely awesome to watch, no one wants another situation like we saw with Dale Earnhardt. The limitations on power, the introduction of the HANS device, and safer barriers were all necessary introductions to the sport to ensure driver safety.

Odds and Value Picks

As the teams work with drivers on strategies for the Duels and the 500, it’s hard to count anyone out of the running. The beauty of these superspeedway tracks is in the lack of predictability. There is always the essence of those teams that we expect to perform well. As mentioned, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are two drivers that can never be counted out. But then we have who we would think of as the typical underdogs that always have a chance. At Daytona, it ain’t over until the checkered flag waves. There’s no track where that statement is truer. Michael McDowell has come away with a win. Austin Dillon took the win in 2018. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Cindric saw victories here! It just goes to show that it’s all about being at the right place at the right time at this track. The closing laps are always troublesome, with many drivers losing their patience and causing some sort of massive pileup at the end. This leaves the door potentially open for someone we never would’ve imagined winning here. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s big race:

• Winner: Chase Elliott +1400
• Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher +2500
• Dark Horse: Josh Berry +3300

Daytona hasn’t been the kindest to Berry, but I think that 2025 is going to be a standout year for this guy. He finished respectably in 13th place at Bowman Gray and is coming into 2025 driving the #21 Ford for Wood Brothers Racing. Although his previous finishes weren’t the greatest, Berry has a good shot at gaining some traction with a different team this year, if I had to guess. SHR was knowingly dissolving after 2024, leaving Berry with little support. This year, it’s a year of refocusing for him and his team. I imagine they’re looking to kick it off in good fashion at Daytona. Chris Buescher has a couple of wins at this track with RFK racing and does well at these tracks. Buescher had a stellar year in 2024 and is looking to capitalize and build on that success as he continues with his team. Between him and Keselowski, I think we are going to see a lot out of these teams in 2025. Buescher will be coming into his own, starting this weekend at Daytona. Chase Elliott is going to be the man to beat. He’s coming off a win at Bowman Gray, and although that is no predictor at all for Daytona, a win is a win and shows the caliber of this team and how they’re coming to do business this year. Honestly, Buescher has a better record than Chase, but Chase is Bill Elliott’s son. That’s something. He’s got the skills behind the wheel and he’s also got consistency. Also, holding a couple of wins to his name here, Elliott is looking to start the season off right by hoisting that trophy at the end.

This is certainly going to be a fun-filled week and weekend of racing. The Duels are going to run on Thursday night, helping to set the field for the 500 on Sunday. Inevitably, we are going to see some carnage in the Duel races. That could put a damper on some of these teams, so look for them to try to take care of their equipment during the Thursday night races. Tempers will still flare, and we are bound to see some wrecks. The only silver lining is that the fields are smaller, so only so many cars can be taken out at a time. Regardless, the big race on Sunday is going to give us all the action we could want. This weekend will be an awesome culmination of anticipation. Stay tuned as the drivers and teams give us a show to remember in the Great American Race this Sunday at Daytona!