Crayon 301 Race Preview & Picks to Bet
Race: Crayon 301
Date: Sunday, July 16, 2023
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time: 2:30pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Another rainy weekend means another rain-shortened race. We saw Chicago shortened by 25 laps, and this past weekend, Atlanta was shortened by 75 laps. Even still, there were a total of 18 lead changes among 12 different drivers. That’s nothing compared to the last spring race, where there were 46 lead changes among 20 different drivers. The new configuration and 2021 repave of the track have done wonders for the racing here. In fact, drivers and fans alike both raved about how tremendous the racing really was. I wish they were able to run a full race as the lead changes and passes throughout the track were pretty cutthroat. Watching the racing on a track that is essentially an intermediate track turned super speedway in some ways. If you watched the race, you saw a lot of track being used. It’s always great when drivers are able to use multiple lanes. It makes for a much better race. The drivers have to lift in the corners here still, which also makes a big difference. With momentum being important, lifting in the corners without making mistakes is critical. Some drivers have that skill and some don’t. Some cars aren’t set up quite right for it either. Regardless, it was a fun race to watch.
William Byron had his fair share of problems early in the race, getting a pit road penalty during stage one and spinning early on in stage two, but somehow he and his crew chief made the right calls to get him back to the front. The rainbow warrior-ish car made the pass on AJ Allmendinger on lap 166, just when he needed to, and remained there through the closing laps. It didn’t take long before the rain was falling, and NASCAR made the call to end the race. With this being a night race and more than half of the laps being run, they decided to end it where they came down pit road. Byron got his fourth win of the season, something he definitely won’t fuss about. Sometimes a little luck goes a long way. It was a win based on a strategic call from his crew chief. He was one of nine drivers to head to pit road after the fifth caution of the night, but the difference is that he took four tires, which allowed him to ultimately pass Allmendinger. Just 11 laps later, the final caution came out when Bubba Wallace, Cole Custer, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got together. The race was called after the rain started and got heavier, prompting NASCAR to call the cars to pit road. Daniel Suarez, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, and Kyle Busch rounded out the top 5 spots. It was a strong finish for Allmendinger and McDowell, especially. Kyle Busch had to fight back after some struggles, so a fifth place was definitely a respectable finish. Brad Keselowski, JJ Yeley, Justin Haley, Ryan Blaney, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished out the top 10 spots. Justin Haley was having a really great run throughout the day. The strategy there at the end coupled with the rain caused quite a bit of problems for many of the drivers, but for Byron, it was a fantastic finish.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to New Hampshire for the Crayon 301. The Magic Mile is a 1.058-mile asphalt and granite oval with 2 to 7 degrees of banking in the turns and just 1 degree on the straights. That kind of configuration is akin to Richmond. They are both relatively flat short tracks. Usually, the guys who run well at Richmond will run well at New Hampshire. A track like this is going to show us what tire wear is really about. At Atlanta, there were pretty big speeds carried into the corners, with guys not using too much brake or too much tire. That’s not necessarily going to be the case here. Track position is going to be very important, as it is at Richmond as well, but tires will make or break a driver here. Anyone with just two tires will get spit up and chewed out on the short runs. But will we have any short runs? If the aggressiveness at Atlanta is any indication, I think we very well could. We also have to keep in mind that the drivers only have a handful of races before the playoffs. It’s crazy to think about it, but it’s the middle of July. There are only seven races remaining before the drivers take on the playoffs for a run at the championship. Wild stuff.
Odds and Value Picks
Knowing that we’re closing in on a very important part of the year, I’d expect the risk-taking style of driving we saw at Atlanta to very well continue into the upcoming weekends. There are many drivers who still need a win to secure their position and every single point matters. When we consider the guys who are going to give us the best shot and best value this weekend, there are a couple of drivers that are no-brainers. Denny Hamlin is always a go-to pick at New Hampshire. He’s got a few wins here, with a total of seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts. With his success on these types of tracks, he’s going to be one to watch. While everyone was rallying around Harvick last weekend, it just wasn’t his time. It would’ve been nostalgic to see him back in victory lane, but it didn’t work out that way. This weekend might be different. He’s one of the better drivers at this track. He actually has a better average finish than Hamlin since 2020, only being bested by Brad Keselowski. In overall finishes, Hamlin bests everyone with an average finish of 9.5. He’s followed by Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell, Jimmie Johnson, and Martin Truex Jr. We can’t forget about Truex Jr. He’s also a strong driver at Richmond. Let’s take a quick peek at all your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race with odds provided by Bovada:
- Winner: Denny Hamlin +800
- Mid-Range Pick: Kevin Harvick +1000
- Dark Horse: Erik Jones +12500
Jones isn’t too shabby here. He’s got an average finish of 18th, but he’s been doing better so far this year than last. Jones is a good driver who’s had a bout of bad luck. I don’t think his finishes truly represent his capabilities. This weekend will give him an opportunity to tout his skill level. Kevin Harvick is usually pretty good here. More promising than “pretty good” are his most recent finishes. As I mentioned before, his average finish in the last three years sits around 5.3. That’s not too bad. He’s looking to finish out his last season in the Cup Series strong. This is a good opportunity to add a trophy. Finally, Denny Hamlin never gets tired of winning, but he hasn’t been doing much of that recently. New Hampshire is a great place for him to get back to victory lane. With the best average finish overall and three wins under his belt, he’s never a guy you can count out. He’s been sitting near the top of the leaderboard all year long,
Let’s take a look at what the standings look like after an eventful race at Atlanta:
- William Byron
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ross Chastain
- Kyle Larson
- Denny Hamlin
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Tyler Reddick
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Kevin Harvick
- Brad Keselowski
- Chris Buescher
- Daniel Suarez
- Michael McDowell
A top 5 finish never hurt anyone, especially Michael McDowell. He’s climbed his way into the top 16, but he’s going to have to give us the big guns if he wants to stay there. Consistency is everything. That’s what Byron has taught us this season. Chris Buescher continues to impress as well, also needing that elusive win to secure a spot in the championship standings. One guy that we are so used to seeing is Chase Elliott. He isn’t up there because of a multitude of reasons so far this year, but he absolutely must win to get into the playoffs. Right now, Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, and William Byron are riding high on the hog. Ross Chastain is slowly creeping back towards the top of the leaderboard, and with a little bit of luck like Byron, he might find his way there. Stay tuned for a great day of racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway! Bet your NASCAR picks for free for a month by grabbing a 100% signup bonus up to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!