Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol Predictions & Race Analysis
Date: Sunday June 16th, 2024
Track: Iowa Speedway
Time: 7pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
I didn’t think he’d be able to pull it out, but Kyle Larson proved me wrong. Congratulations to the #5 Hendrick driver who pulled out a win at Sonoma this past weekend. It was a race that saw a record amount of cautions in the first stage, with more yellow flags in the first half than the last two races at Sonoma combined. That might be due to the newly repaved track, but the racing was tight, with many drivers trying to force their way into spots that didn’t necessarily exist. Larson did a phenomenal job and ran a clean race, battling at the end primarily with Martin Truex Jr. and Chris Buescher. Larson claims he wasn’t paying attention to strategy during the race and was simply “banging laps away.” Quite frankly, I think that’s what makes him one of the best. He has people surrounding him that take care of the strategy, and Larson focuses on getting out front and staying there. There’s probably no one that does that better than him at this point, regardless of what style of track or type of race car. Larson just gets it. He’s got more talent in his pinky finger than I have in my entire body when it comes to racing. He earned the win after battling hard with Truex in the closing lap. Unfortunately, Truex’s guys didn’t do enough work on their side of the strategy game, leaving Truex with no gas on the last lap. It was a clear disappointment and tough loss for Truex, who limped his car across the finish line in 27th place. He was only about 40 yards from the finish when that happened. I can only imagine the frustration.
Larson took full advantage of his team’s call to make him one of the last cars to pit, leaving him enough fuel to get to the end. He wheeled his way to that checkered flag, giving him his 26th career victory. This was his 20th victory with Hendrick Motorsports, putting him 3rd behind just Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon for most career wins for an HMS driver. With such a long runway in front of him, that’s absolutely insane to think of where he could end up. He’s got quite a bright future. In the here and now, this victory puts him 14 points above teammate Chase Elliott in the standings, with Denny Hamlin dropping to 3rd place after leading the standings for several weeks. Hamlin suffered a catastrophic engine failure at the very beginning of the race. He finished in 38th place, dead last. That definitely didn’t put him where he wanted to be, but Hamlin is still in good shape having three wins already this season. He’s certainly going to want some redemption just for himself as we head into a new weekend, so we’ll see how that team fares as they head into Sunday night’s race.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This Father’s Day, the drivers and teams are heading to Iowa Speedway for the running of the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol. This is going to be a pretty cool race because it is the first for the Cup Series drivers. They’ve been running Xfinity races here for a minute, but it will be the inaugural race for the big leaguers. I’m hoping for a good race. This track is considered a short track, with 12 to 14 degrees of banking through the turns on this 0.875 mile asphalt D-shaped oval. The frontstretch boasts 10 degrees, and the backstretch is just 4 degrees. Compared to other tracks that these guys race, I’d say this place is pretty similar to Richmond. It’s slightly larger with very similar banking. Rusty Wallace actually designed this track! With that comparison, we would assume that tires and track position are the name of the game. Tires aren’t quite as significant as they used to be because of stage racing and the opportunity to stop during cautions and observe and make necessary changes. Track position, though, is pretty critical at a track like this. If Richmond is any comparison, the driver that can get out front will stay there. The other drivers will need to rely on lap traffic to catch up and get an opportunity to pass.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, we can clearly look at the best drivers in terms of short tracks, obviously with a focus on Richmond. We also have the opportunity to look at those guys that have experience from the Xfinity side of things. We have to remember that some of the experience in the Xfinity races were many years ago for some of these drivers. Brad Keselowski, for example, has run here seven times with three wins. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has six starts also with three wins. Aside from those with a history of winning here, we have to look at our current field and their experience. Guys like this past week’s winner Kyle Larson and also Christopher Bell should be high on your list. Both of these guys have tested at this track this year, which is very important being that it underwent a partial repave. This gives them an advantage in knowing what to look for, what to expect, and potentially how tires are going to perform. For Bell, he holds the title of best rating on shorter flat tracks this year. His past Iowa performance left him with two wins and two runner-ups. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:
- Winner: Martin Truex Jr.+1000
- Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +1200
- Dark Horse: Josh Berry +5000
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Josh Berry doesn’t have much for experience, if any at all, when it comes to Iowa, but what he does have a great short flat track record. He finished 2nd in last year’s race at Richmond and came home with an 11th this year. Overall, he’s not a terrible pick. His relative success at Phoenix last year also gives us some insight into his strength on this configuration. Keselowski probably is bordering on an A-list at this point having won a race this year, but he’s been mildly hard to read, so I’m leaving him as a mid-range pick. With three wins in Xfinity and also having success with this configuration at other venues, don’t count him out. This team is coming into their own as the season progresses. The guy that I’m betting on, though, will be Martin Truex Jr. After a heartbreaking loss due to strategy, they are definitely a team looking for a win. With no wins yet this season and a potential retirement looming after 2024, we have to wonder if he’s in the game mentally. I’d like to think he’s still gunning for the championship. If he’s going to make a strong comeback and potentially get his first win of the season, this is just the place to do it. With a phenomenal amount of success at tracks like New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix, we have to assume that he will take to this track like a fish to water. He’s certainly trying to navigate his way to securing his spot in the playoffs. With losing a spot in the points after last weekend, look for him to battle to get up front and stay there. Let’s see where these guys stand as we head into the inaugural Cup race at Iowa:
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Denny Hamlin
- Tyler Reddick
- Martin Truex Jr.
- William Byron
- Brad Keselowski
- Ty Gibbs
- Christopher Bell
- Ross Chastain
- Alex Bowman
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Bubba Wallace
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
Logano needs to do something is he’s going to be in the playoffs this year. Ironically, he’s a master of the new challenges that NASCAR puts in front of these teams. Maybe this is his time to shine! He needs a win, unless he’s got something up his sleeve to be consistently strong each week moving forward. Kyle Busch gained two spots to climb back into playoff contention, but he’s another driver that needs a win to secure his spot. I’m not so sure that this is his style this weekend. He’s going to have a lot of notable competition. Honestly, his best friend Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has a better record than most, so Stenhouse might outrun Busch this weekend, fair and square. This is definitely going to be a weekend of firsts. Stay tuned as these drivers head into their first race at Iowa Speedway!