Cook Out Southern 500: NASCAR Picks & Betting Odds for Darlington

Race: Cook Out Southern 500

Date: Sunday, September 1, 2024

Track: Darlington Raceway

Time: 6 pm ET

Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

If you wanted excitement, Daytona was where you needed to be this past weekend. Saturday night’s race proved to be nothing short of exciting, with the cars racing in pretty much one large pack all night long. There were few instances of anyone falling out of the draft, but there was no shortage of cars being involved in wrecks. Two pretty large wrecks took out some of the top competitors, but the final wreck ruined the potential for Josh Berry to come away with his first Daytona win. He had led many laps and stayed at the front of the field for much of the race, but ultimately, he ended up on his roof, taking a brutal hit to the inside wall while he was upside down. Miraculously, Berry climbed out of his car unscathed and told the media that the wreck probably looked worse than it actually was. He had a surprisingly positive demeanor despite being so close to a victory. After leading eight laps, winning a stage, and climbing out of a car that was on its rooftop seconds prior, I guess he realized his blessings and chose to see the good. Ironically, Berry is out of the #4 this year after only one season because of SHR dissolving post-2024.

The bigger piece of irony is the winner amidst all of the chaos. Fired driver Harrison Burton managed to come out victorious despite losing his ride to…wait for it…Josh Berry for the 2025 season. When news broke that SHR was to be no more, Berry got on the horn and made the phone calls he needed to make to secure a ride for the next season. Burton, who’s been racing with the Wood Brothers Racing team for the last three years, earned his first Cup Series victory and the historic 100th win for the Wood Brothers team. Honestly, it was a Daytona victory. You just never know what’s going to play out, and luck is always a big part of the puzzle at this place. It’s doesn’t matter though. A win is a win. Burton punched his ticket into the playoffs, which created a bigger hole for some drivers to climb out of, with just one race remaining before the playoffs begin. Some of the drivers affected were involved in wrecks earlier in the race as well. On lap 61, Corey LaJoie created a chain reaction when draft racing took hold. That wreck involved 17 different cars, some of which were able to continue, but some of those guys had to head to the garage and retire for the night. Hamlin and Elliott were two of the retired cars, but they don’t necessarily have anything to sweat about. They’re in the playoffs regardless. Guys like Ross Chastain are the ones that are fighting tooth and nail to get to where they need to be before Darlington creates more trouble.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Darlington, or as many like to call it “The Track Too Tough To Tame” or “The Lady in Black”, earned its nicknames because drivers just can’t seem to stay off the walls here. At tracks like Daytona, drivers are constantly battling each other. They have to have to have the skill set to draft, maintain control when they are literally inches away from each other, and learn how to block. At Darlington, the drivers’ biggest challenge is the track itself. Since 1953, this track has maintained its 1.366-mile asphalt configuration. It is, however, shaped like an egg. It has 25 degrees of banking through turns 1 and 2, with 23 degrees through 3 and 4. The frontstretch is milder at just 3 degrees, with the backstretch boasting just 2 degrees. One of the biggest issues with Darlington continues to be tire wear. Drivers often earn their Darlington Stripe without the help of worn tires, but tires can certainly play a part. Oftentimes, the right sides take a hit, causing drivers to catch that outside wall without much recourse. Regardless, many of them are able to overcome their troubles with the wall to continue on and finish the race without further incident. Darlington is often a track where, if the cars are able to continue of, there is often good racing throughout the entire track. We’ll see great racing front, mid, and back of the pack. The cars really do get spread out, but they don’t all just run away from each other. The fans get a good show no matter what part of the track they are watching. It’s another one of those tracks with a weird enough configuration that allows the drivers to sometimes pull away but to still get caught by someone else. Pit road is going to be a big deal for the teams as well. Drivers are going to get penalties. That’s the unfortunate part of this place. They will need to be cautious to adjust pit road speed accordingly. If drivers can have a race with no pit penalties AND stay off the wall, well, they are going to be in good shape and definitely the ones to watch for at the end of the race.

Odds and Value Picks

Who exactly are those drivers? Unlike Daytona, Darlington does not lend itself to many rookie winners. This is a track that takes a lot of skill to maneuver around and to stay on track until the very end. Generally, we don’t see one or two wrecks that take out half or more of the field and leave only a few drivers in contention. Usually, rookies ride mid to back pack here and take notes from the veterans. The difference this time around is that Darlington is the last race of the regular season. That means that someone is bound to take some risks. Who, though, is historically good at this place? As mentioned, the top-tier drivers here are the veterans, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Joey Logano, and even Brad Keselowski. These are guys with years of racing under their belts. All 4 of these drivers have a win in their last seven starts. Kyle Larson also has a win, but his overall average finish isn’t the greatest at just 15.3. Erik Jones and Martin Truex Jr. are the other drivers with a win in the last seven races, but they are even further down on the average finish list. This is important because it speaks to the consistency (or lack thereof) of their finishes throughout the races. For all-time career stats, Denny Hamlin leads the pack in best average finish. He has four wins in 24 starts and an average finish of 8.3. He is the only active driver to have an average finish inside the top 10. Keselowski, Larson, and Jones follow behind Hamlin. So what does this mean for our winners? Let’s take a look at potential winners heading into this weekend’s very important race at Darlington with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:

• Winner: Denny Hamlin +500
• Mid-Range Pick: Martin Truex Jr. +1000
• Dark Horse: Erik Jones +3500

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As mentioned, Erik Jones has a win here, but more than that, he’s got an overall 4th best average finish in career runs here. With 5 top 5s and 8 top 10s, Jones doesn’t have many more tracks with a better record. This is one of those places that might just give him the boost he needs. I believe that he is going to be aggressive and race hard. Martin Truex Jr. has had a pretty laid-back season with not a lot of fanfare. In the last half of his last season, he’s going to be looking for a boost if I had to guess. He’s got some good runs at Darlington over the years with 4 top 5s and 10 top 10s. He has two wins over the seasons, so he has something to capitalize on! They will all be chasing down Denny Hamlin, though. Hamlin has this place figured out. He’s been competitive over the last few months with few exceptions and also a contender near the front of the pack. Suffice to say, coming to a track where he’s a dominating force, he will be the one to watch. Guys like Reddick, Byron, and Larson should also be on your radar, but I believe that Hamlin is going to be looking for another win and points boost before heading into the playoffs. Let’s take a look at where he and all other drivers are as they try to lockdown their chance at a playoff berth in this final weekend of the regular season. Here’s a different view of the points as they sit for playoff purposes heading into Darlington:

1. Kyle Larson
2. Christopher Bell
3. Tyler Reddick
4. William Byron
5. Ryan Blaney
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Chase Elliott
8. Brad Keselowski
9. Joey Logano
10. Austin Cindric
11. Daniel Suarez
12. Alex Bowman
13. Harrison Burton
14. Martin Truex Jr.
15. Ty Gibbs
16. Chris Buescher

At this time, Reddick is slated to win the regular season title, barring any crazy shenanigans, which are still possible. The bad news is that his 23XI racing teammate, Bubba Wallace, sits 21 points below the cutoff line with no win this season to lock him in. Kyle Busch is another driver who is just barely hanging on. Without a win, he’s leaning on points and is just not going to make the cut unless something wild happens. In the final playoff picture, he’s actually 106 points below the cutoff line. He’s come close to winning this season but hasn’t been able to close the gap when it mattered, most recently at this weekend’s Daytona race. Ross Chastain is 27 points below as well, so there is hope, however slight that chance may be. Darlington is definitely going to be an important race for many of these drivers. While some are focused solely on that regular season finish, many more are focused on how they can get one final shot to win and lockdown their playoffs hopes. Harrison Burton did it at Daytona. Will someone else do it at Darlington? Stay tuned to see the finale of the regular 2024 NASCAR Cup Series this Sunday at Darlington Raceway!

Don’t forget to check out this weekend’s college football picks!