Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Analysis Plus Value Pick

Race: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Date: Saturday August 26, 2023

Track: Daytona International Speedway

Time: 7pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

William Byron did it again. In a dominating performance, Byron took home his 5th win of the season at Watkins Glen this past weekend. Out of 90 laps, Byron left no one to wonder who had the best car of the day or the most skill by leading 62. He credited his success to a new simulator at home. You may laugh, but there’s something to be said about iRacing and the skills it helps drivers with, especially on-the-road courses. Byron is getting the last laugh. The way that these simulators work now, drivers can set up their cars and adjust things like humidity on the track and even tire pressures, etc. This development in electronic gaming is pretty incredible. They can really get a lot out of the games, and it is entirely life-like. William Byron would agree. In fact, he’s got quite the background in iRacing, gaining a good portion of his skill set from the gaming platforms.

There are some other drivers who have utilized iRacing, but they may want to hang out with Byron a little bit more. His teammates struggled at the Glen. For Chase Elliott, it was a day to forget. He is in a have-to-win situation, and his shot was foiled after what they thought was a strategic attempt at fuel strategy. The attempt led them to be the cause of the only caution of the day on lap 55. Elliott and his team had to go home with their tails tucked between their legs after that failed strategy left them with a disappointing 32nd-place finish. The runner-up finisher, Denny Hamlin, never had anything for Byron. He was over 3 seconds behind him by the end of the race. Christopher Bell, AJ Allmendinger, and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top 5 spots. Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano were the backend of the top 10 drivers. Another Hendrick driver with big woes was Kyle Larson. He had a pit road penalty for speeding while being in the mix for the win. That totally trumped his day, and any hope of redemption was foiled by his run-in with Austin Dillon in the final corner of the race. Honestly, I’m much more a Larson fan than a Dillon fan, but that was a dirty pool. Dillon made contact, but he didn’t wreck Larson. Larson dumped Dillon. That was not cool. It’s one thing to move a driver, but it’s an entirely different situation to wreck them. Larson needs to re-evaluate that situation. Michael McDowell had a rough time with a pit road penalty early in the race, which ultimately gave Byron the break that he needed. Pit road was doomsday for many drivers. Without the luxury of stage breaks, it was a runaway race, and the ones with penalties had no chance of catching up.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers will have stage breaks, but we’re at another crapshoot track. You may as well throw 36 names in the air and grab one. That’s what it’s like when trying to pick a winner for this race. Daytona is about as unpredictable as they come. While there are some drivers that are notoriously good, Daytona lends itself to being a track that creates chaos, and anyone can prevail. Drivers like Michael McDowell have reaped the benefits of chaos on the superspeedways. As the Daytona 500 winner, McDowell earned himself a spot into the playoffs that easily. This week, we may have another first-time winner due to the same circumstances. Who knows? Daytona is a 2.5-mile asphalt tri-oval. It has 31 degrees of banking in the turns and 18 degrees through the tri-oval. The backstretch has a pretty minor 3 degrees of banking. The significance of the banking is the momentum the cars carry through the entire track. They will easily hit and stay at 180mph+ through the whole thing. This means little braking but high heat on those brakes. It also means hot tires and more tire wear. Tires are tremendously important to maintain the draft here. If drivers get off the pit cycle and do not come off pit road with a pack or a friend of some sort, this will essentially doom them for track position.

Odds and Value Picks

Because of the different factors that can cause drivers to struggle, this is one of the toughest places to pick a winner. That being said, there’s one standout based on recent finishes this year and just his history at this particular track. Denny Hamlin is a strong pick this weekend. He’s got a runner-up finish at the Glen and many others this year. From 2019 to 2021, Hamlin has two wins and 4 top 5 finishes. Now, his most recent finishes at Daytona have been struggle buses. In fact, he hasn’t earned a top-10 finish from 2022 to now. That said, I think we can chalk a lot of that up to lack of predictability of the track. Hamlin is having some very strong runs right now, so I wouldn’t count him out. Chase Elliott is another driver we have to talk about. He has to win. Although I thought he could do it in the previous two races, he’s failed. Maybe the pressure is getting the best of him, but he’s just not performing where he needs to be. Although Elliott and his dad are superstars on the superspeedways, I am not so confident that he’s going to pull off this Hail Mary. Let’s take a look at your potential winners (Odds provided by Bovada) heading into the final race before the playoffs:

• Winner: Denny Hamlin +1400
• Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace +1600
• Dark Horse: Austin Dillon +3000

Dillon is definitely a long shot, but if that team has a shot at anything, it’s probably a superspeedway. He actually has two Cup wins here and an Xfinity win, so it’s not foreign territory by any means. Bubba Wallace is likely looking for an uneventful race. While he’d undoubtedly love to win, if Dillon can manage just to run a safe race and stay out of trouble, he will likely point his way into the playoffs based on where he sits right now. Daytona is definitely his best out of the two major superspeedways. His average finish of 13th isn’t too bad. Denny Hamlin is our guy this weekend, though. With all the stats I mentioned previously and simply his strong runs as of recent weeks, Hamlin is positioned in a great spot. He doesn’t need to win, but he can take any risk he wants to without the issue of falling out of championship contention. It’s definitely going to be an entertaining race one way or the other. A lot of these guys have nothing to lose, so they’re going to do everything they can to win. Then there are the guys that need to be safe, like Wallace, although he’s probably the only one. He’ll be threading the needle to stay out of trouble. Let’s take a look at where everyone stands as we head into Daytona:

1. William Byron
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Larson
5. Kyle Busch
6. Chris Buescher
7. Christopher Bell
8. Ross Chastain
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Tyler Reddick
11. Joey Logano
12. Brad Keselowski
13. Michael McDowell
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
15. Kevin Harvick
16. Bubba Wallace

Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick are locked into the playoffs based on points due to their finishes at the Glen. The driver on the bubble remains Bubba Wallace, with Ty Gibbs the only driver logistically able to bump him from that spot unless we have another first-time winner for Daytona. Unfortunately, Daniel Suarez missed the mark at Watkins Glen. That really put him in a position where he can’t point his way in. This is definitely going to be a wild ride. The best part? This is a night race at a superspeedway. Although I’m not thrilled about a superspeedway closing out the regular season, it’s definitely going to give us all quite the show. Stay tuned to see how it all plays out as the teams battle for the final spots available for the playoff rounds!