Coke Zero Sugar 400 Picks: NASCAR Betting Preview for Daytona
Date: Saturday, August 24, 2024
Track: Daytona International Speedway
Time: 7:30 pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Tyler Reddick claimed his second victory of the season in 2024 after taking the win at Michigan on Monday. That’s correct, Monday. The race was only 51 laps in before it was halted by rain. NASCAR resumed the race on Monday morning. It was another week of overtime restarts when all was said and done, giving Reddick the opportunity to pull away from William Byron and Ty Gibbs. Reddick was quick to give credit to Toyota teammate Gibbs for the push he needed to get across the line ahead of the pack. That was significant, as this was the first time in nine races that a Ford hadn’t won the race. Reddick only led 15 laps throughout the whole race, but he led the lap that meant the most. He was followed to the checkers by William Byron, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski to round out the top 5 spots.
One of the favorites and drivers predicted to win, Kyle Larson, had a gnarly day. He ended up leading 41 laps but ultimately lost control of his ride on lap 116. It created a bit of a firestorm, taking out Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, Todd Gilliland, Bubba Wallace, and Joey Logano. Four of those involved were taken out of the race completely, including Larson, Gilliland, Bell, and Logano. It was clearly a hard way to end the race for Logano, who was frustrated after being taken out by Austin Dillon in the week prior. He is in the playoffs, though, so that’s his saving grace. A couple of other notable incidents included Corey Lajoie taking a joy ride on his roof around Lao 136. That happened after contact with Noah Gragson. Luckily, Lajoie came tumbling to a stop in the infield and was later deemed okay. It just goes to show the safety implementations over the years have worked. Denny Hamlin was another driver that had a not so great day but recovered to a respectable 9th place finish. He suffered damage on the underside of his car after an incident on lap 38 that left him also scurrying across the infield grass. His team managed to put things back together well enough to get him in contention. He’ll have another shot this weekend as the drivers head to a love-it-or-hate-it track.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to Daytona for a Saturday night filled with excitement! Racing under the lights at a superspeedway is a different kind of wild. Daytona is a great track, but there’s something about running at night with cooler temperatures that just always changes the atmosphere of the entire place. Daytona is unlike any other place. It’s steeped and rich in history and arguably one of the world’s most recognizable and prestigious racing institutions. Racing here requires a high level of skill and strategy. Its unique configuration, a 2.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 31 degrees of banking in the turns and 18 degrees through the tri-oval, demands precision and control. The backstretch boasts a mild 3 degrees, and overall, this is a place where brakes are pretty optional, and it’s all about a foot to the floor and maintaining control of your car in the draft. Drafting is a finely acquired skill, much like the bump and runs on short tracks that Austin Dillon doesn’t know how to execute. With the draft, we are often talking about 15-20 cars grouped together running within inches of each other. This means that the slightest movement of a car out of line could cause pure chaos and take out a large number of competitive cars. With the newer cars, we are seeing smaller groups running together more often than not, but it is still a phenomenon that is important to master when racing at this place. If a driver loses the draft due to any circumstance, often messing up pit strategy, it takes a large amount of time to make up the distance. Drivers usually have to wait until a caution comes out to catch up to the field, or they’re lapped with little opportunity to get their lap back.
Odds and Value Picks
Daytona is a place that requires a high amount of skill, luck, or a combination of both. Sometimes, this is a track where drivers actually get their first win by happenstance because the rest of the field wrecks out. Sometimes, this is a track where the veteran wins by maintaining a position at the front of the field and blocking with perfect technique. Blocking is another strategy that can cause mass chaos here. Often, a driver gets to the front of the field and must block the inside and outside lines from passing, but those lines tend to have crazy momentum with the draft. This is where many of the big wrecks happen towards the end of the race, resulting in those “lucky” wins we just talked about. When it comes to picking winners, those two things make it particularly difficult to pick one for this track, or any super speedway for that matter. When we consider the full-time Cup Series drivers, surprisingly, Bubba Wallace is one of those guys who is consistently good at the big tracks. As a whole, his boss, Denny Hamlin, has him beaten with three wins here. Austin Dillon, William Byron, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. also have multiple wins, with two each to their names. Looking at this season, Hamlin and Byron stick out as the potential winners. Byron won the opener here this year, and he’d love to join the prestigious five other drivers that have swept both Daytona races in a season. He will have his work cut out for him, with Denny Hamlin looking for another checkered flag. Let’s take a look at your potential winners as they drivers gear up for this weekend’s night race with odds provided by Bovada:
- Winner: William Byron +1600
- Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace +1600
- Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3300
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With two wins here, it’s possible they were both lucky, but with his playoff season riding on whether or not he wins, this is probably his best chance with just Darlington remaining after this race. Stenhouse has an affinity for the big tracks as well, so look for him to be unusually aggressive this weekend to try and lock down his opportunity at the playoffs. Bubba Wallace is also looking for a win. He fell two spots after his trouble at Michigan and hasn’t had a win yet in 2024. He’s been flirting with the bubble spot all summer, and this might also be his best shot at victory before the opener at Atlanta. He will be looking to surpass his boss man, Denny Hamlin, and also William Byron to get to the checkered flag. Byron has been a dominant force this season without much fanfare. He’s got three wins, 8 top 5 finishes, and 13 top 10 finishes. He’s also led 256 laps throughout the season. With a victory here already on the books, he’d like to add to the record books and be the 6th driver in history to sweep Daytona in a season. He’s securely in the playoffs already and actually earned another spot in the standings after Michigan. He’s got nothing to lose. Let’s take a look at where the other guys are heading into Daytona:
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Brad Keselowski
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Chris Buescher
- Ross Chastain
- Bubba Wallace
- Joey Logano
- Daniel Suarez
There wasn’t much movement in the last few spots short of Bubba falling a couple. Kyle Larson was the biggest loser, falling three positions, allowing Tyler Reddick to take the top spot. The only drivers in the top 16 that could secure a spot with points are Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, and Chris Buescher. Even still, both Gibbs and Buescher would need some help in that department, as other drivers are having a pretty terrible day. Truex Jr. needs 35 points to clinch his spot. There are only four open spots left to clinch a spot. These guys need to go for a win at this point. It will be interesting to see who takes what strategy at one of the most unpredictable tracks on the circuit. Do these drivers risk it all and go for the win? Do they play it safe and try to stay out of trouble for the points? Do they just hope the majority of the field wrecks out? You laugh, but it’s happened. Stay tuned to see how this all plays out with just two races remaining! The drivers are headed for racing under the lights this Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway!