Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum Race Analysis & Picks

• Race: Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum
• Date: Sunday, February 4, 2023
• Track: LA Memorial Coliseum
• Time: 8 pm ET
• Channel: FOX

Welcome to Speedweeks!

And just like that, NASCAR is back! Speedweeks is here, and it begins with the Clash! The Clash has been the inaugural event for Speedweeks for many years, albeit under many different names. Beginning in 1979, the Clash allowed NASCAR to run a non-points event prior to the 500 and giving the fans a sneak peak at the teams coming into the new season. The Clash is not a traditional race and really not representative of what the season is really going to look like simply because it is now held at the LA Memorial Coliseum. This track is definitely not a true test of what these cars are capable of, nor what the drivers are capable of. It really is a true exhibition race and something to get the fans excited heading into the new season of racing. It’s an opportunity to see the major changes in action and also to just have a great place to have some fun and kick off the season.

This year, NASCAR has implemented quite a few rule changes, but perhaps the most glaring is the one regarding qualifying. Although this won’t apply on superspeedways, the qualifying change is somewhat controversial. NASCAR decided that there will be two group qualifying and two rounds. Group A will determine the outside row, and Group B will determine the inside row. In round one, the top 5 drivers advance to round 2 for both Group A and Group B. Round 2 will set the top 10 positions based on speed. Rows 6 through 20 are determined from remaining order sets in round one of both groups. NASCAR may be trying to simplify the process, so we will see how this plays out. For the Clash, this is, of course, not the rules that are followed. There are a series of qualifiers for this race with multiple 25-lap heat races. Ultimately, the feature will be made up of 150 laps, with no caution laps counting this year. All drivers are eligible to qualify, with the final field only allowing 27 teams.

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Where Are We Headed This Week?

The LA Memorial Coliseum adds another layer of challenge for the teams because this is nothing like Daytona. In fact, this track is nothing like any of the current NASCAR tracks. It is really more representative of a local short track or dirt track. Being asphalt with 4 turns is really where the similarities end. This track is a mere 0.25-mile in length. From what we’ve seen in the Clash since being at the Coliseum, it’s not the greatest battle because it’s so challenging to pass on such a small track. If drivers get a little more aggressive, it might be more competitive, but ultimately, no one wants to tear a car up.

Odds and Value Picks

Predictions for the Clash, well, it’s a tough pick. Because we’ve only run a couple of races at this track and because it’s so different than anything else we see across the series, it can be challenging to think about who’s going to take the checkered flag. Ultimately, qualifying matters. With difficulty in passing, being upfront from the beginning is going to be crucial. An aggressive nature can help, but it’s still hard to get through the field and pass. The silver lining is that it’s not a full field, although it might feel like it with 27 cars on a quarter-mile track. Pit stops are really non-existent, being that the feature is only 37.5 miles. The cars are really going to make one run at it, and only the green flag laps count, as mentioned. I don’t anticipate a huge number of cautions, if any, through the race.

When it comes to picking a winner, I think we’re going to see our veteran guys pull it out. So far, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. are the winners at the Coliseum. Prior to that, we saw a lot of Gibbs drivers taking the win when this event was run at Daytona. Several drivers are multiple-time winners, including Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin. They are actually the only remaining active drivers with multiple wins. Other drivers include the likes of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick. Dale Earnhardt Sr. actually has the record for most wins with six total Clash wins. He really was the one who could “see the air.” His wins at Daytona are a testament to his abilities on a superspeedway. It will be interesting to see if we have another new winner this year. Again, I think much of that will depend on qualifying. With this no longer being run on Daytona, we have to take a look at previous wins by Teams as a whole on top of driver wins. JGR clearly has an edge at this event for some reason, holding the most wins by a team at a total of 11. RCR is next with eight wins. Chevrolet is very clearly the winner in the manufacturer circle, with a total of 21 wins through the years.

So who will win in 2024? JGR is running Toyotas, so that doesn’t fit our manufacturer mold, but the JGR drivers are aggressive and strong. RCR, Spire, Front Row, and Hendrick are all running Chevrolet, so if that’s any indication, we would need to pick from that pool. Quite frankly, though, I think that we’re going to need to look at winningest team and most recent winners due to change in venue. Overall, Truex Jr. is clearly a favorite heading into this weekend’s opening race. He’s last year’s winner and has a thing for short tracks. Following Truex Jr., Kyle Larson is another driver to watch, but Kyle Busch is someone that we need to keep our eyes on. With a second-place finish at the Coliseum in 2022 and a third-place finish last year, Busch has an opportunity to really come into 2024 strong. He had a somewhat tough go of it in the Chase and struggled late in the season, but the start of 2024 is a place for redemption for him. I think that Busch is going to be the one to beat. He will have some tough competition, especially in a non-points race. There’s nothing to lose here but pride, so we’re going to see some risky moves for sure, and Kyle Busch is someone we can always count on for that.

• Winner: Kyle Busch +1000
• Mid-Range Pick: Tyler Reddick +2000
• Dark Horse: Austin Dillon +2800

These betting odds available at Bovada.

Dillon is another driver with a 2nd and 3rd place finish at the Coliseum. As the only other driver with top-three results in the Clash since its move to LA, Dillon and Busch are going to be the ones to keep your eyes on. Tyler Reddick is also someone that is going to give us something to watch. With a 6th-place finish last year but also a few years of being a very solid mid-pick driver, Reddick is someone who could pay dividends on a bet this weekend. 2024 is going to be good for this team.

They will all have to watch Busch, though. He really found his stride in the first half of the year but struggled in the Chase. With some regrouping in the off-season, Busch and this new team are likely to have a very solid season. This could kick off the momentum that he needs. Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon will also be looking for the same sort of energy and momentum to start off the year. With many of these drivers and teams coming into 2024 with newer teams, this is going to be a year of growth. 2023 proved to be a year of tumult for many, but 2024 will settle some of that uncertainty and bring more opportunity to the guys trying to find their feet in newer situations. Stay tuned for an exciting opener for the 2024 season, as 27 teams will battle it out at the Coliseum!

The “Big Game” is coming! Be sure to check out our Super Bowl LVIII predictions!