Bristol Food City 500 Prediction: Lessons from Darlington

Date: Sunday, April 13th, 2025

Track: Bristol Motor Speedway

Time: 3 pm ET

Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Unfortunately for William Byron (and as predicted!) Denny Hamlin and crew absolutely nailed his last pit stop after coming in as the third-place car. He came out in first and didn’t look back. It was Kyle Larson’s spin with three laps to go that forced the final caution and a green-white-checkered finish. For Byron, it was a disappointing end to a day that saw him lead the first 243 laps. It was evident that he had the strongest car. Ryan Blaney also had what he thought was going to be his first Darlington win ever swept out from under him, as he was leading the race with just three laps left when Larson spun after clearing Tyler Reddick. Unfortunately, the race was won off pit road. It doesn’t matter who leads the most laps. It only matters who leads the last. Hamlin noted that his pit crew won for him last week at Martinsville, and they did it again this week at Darlington. He gave credit where credit was due, but he left no doubt about the fact that he and his team are here to “win a lot of races” this year. Hamlin is out for a trophy, something he’s yet to accomplish.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

As the drivers and teams wind down from the excitement of the Darlington throwback, they are all heading to the track with one of the longest histories in NASCAR. The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway brings the tempers back to the track in true short-track fashion. Although the cars have changed the way the drivers navigate this track through the years, we still see some pretty great racing at this concrete 0.533 oval. There is 24-28 degrees of banking in the turns and a mild 4-8 degrees on the straights. This differs quite a bit from both Richmond and Martinsville, which are predominately flat tracks. Bristol allows the drivers to build more speed and carry more momentum through the turns than at Martinsville, but it still burns tires down pretty good. That is one of the biggest battles that the drivers and teams will face. You will see two tire and four tire strategies throughout the day, with many teams running various strategies. Fuel used to be a consideration, but it isn’t quite as much with the stage breaks that we see these days.

Odds and Value Picks

When we take a look at potential winners heading into this weekend, our almost spinner from last weekend takes the cake. Kyle Larson has had an interesting year thus far, but he still remains very competitive. After dominating and leading 462 of 500 laps in the September 2024 race, he took the win. He also won the Fall race in 2021. He comes to Bristol with 7 top 5 finishes in 17 starts. Larson is currently sitting at +450, better than any other driver, followed by Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney. We’ve got some good names floating around, but Larson is hard to bet against this weekend. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners:

Winner: Kyle Larson +450

They will all be chasing Kyle Larson, who is looking like a top-tier driver at this track, clearly understanding the nuances with two wins under his belt. Larson will be hard to beat, and he’s definitely looking for a way to get some points and a win to get back to the top of the leaderboard after his struggles at Darlington. At +450, he’s definitely the strongest contender.

Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace +2000

Wallace comes into Bristol with some good odds at +2000, and he is very clearly having an exceptional year. His finish in the 2024 Fall race brought him a podium finish in 3rd place, and he will likely be in contention for the win this year with the runs he’s been having.

Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs +2500

At +2500, Gibbs is running odds akin to Wallace, but his lack of experience and wins keeps him in the C list category. Gibbs has had a good year so far, and Bristol has proven to be one of his best tracks. In just four total starts, he has 2 top 10s and is looking to improve on that. His 15th-place finish last year wasn’t necessarily indicative of the day he had. We’ll see what he brings to the track this week.

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Let’s take a look at the standings after the race at Darlington:

• William Byron
• Denny Hamlin
• Christopher Bell
• Chase Elliott
• Tyler Reddick
• Kyle Larson
• Ryan Blaney
• Bubba Wallace
• Joey Logano
• Alex Bowman
• Chris Buescher
• Ross Chastain
• Ryan Preece
• Chase Briscoe
• Kyle Busch
• AJ Allmendinger

Michael McDowell dropped out of the top 16 after Darlington, so he’s chasing tail right now to get his position back. Kyle Busch gained another position, and Bristol tends to be a strong track for him. He’s heading into the weekend +2200, so there’s hope for him yet. We’ll have to keep our eyes on some other guys, though, like Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott. They’re running some strong odds heading into Sunday’s race. Will Larson be able to hold them off and gain back some positions after losing four after Darlington? There’s only one way to find out! Stay tuned for a great afternoon of short track racing at Bristol Motor Speedway!