Brickyard 400 Race Predictions & Value Picks
Race: Brickyard 400
Date: Sunday July 21, 2024
Track: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Time: 2:30pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Denny Hamlin almost locked it down at Pocono, but he just couldn’t beat Ryan Blaney when it came down to the checkered flag. Blaney got his 2nd victory of the season, beating 2nd place Denny Hamlin by a clear 1.312 seconds. In fact, this was the track where Ryan Blaney earned his first career Cup victory. For Blaney, he did a great job in the closing laps to hold off Denny Hamlin, and he never relinquished once he gained it with 44 laps to go. He led the remainder of the race and cleared Hamlin by a good margin. Alex Bowman led a good charge but started to fade with seven laps remaining and ultimately got passed by Denny. He still managed a strong 3rd-place finish, with William Byron and Joey Logano rounding out the top-5 spots.
As I mentioned last week, track position is and was absolutely critical for the drivers at Pocono. This is one of those tracks that the leaders typically grab the lead and run with it. Blaney proved that point in the last portion of the race with no one able to pass him. Other guys never really had that opportunity. There are several guys still looking for their first win of the season and many still chasing the points in an effort to secure their spot in the playoffs. For drivers like Kyle Busch, though, it just didn’t play out well. Busch just can’t seem to catch a break. Currently 19th in the standings, he suffered another catastrophic ending to his day after being involved in a wreck with 39 laps to go. He finished a dismal 32nd and now has a 27th or worse finishing position in 4 of his last five races. In the last seven races, Busch has suffered with 5 DNFs. That’s definitely not a record he wants to hold. Ross Chastain is another driver that is struggling to earn his playoff spot this year. After coming into the Series pretty hot, he’s cooled off tremendously this year, ending Pocono with a DNF. He’s within the top 16, but that’s on points alone, and any further poor finishes are not going to help his cause.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
These guys are going to have a lot of work to do in the coming weeks, and Darlington is going to close out the opportunity to make the playoffs. That race will be around the corner in a few weeks. This weekend, the drivers are battling at the Brickyard. Back by popular demand, NASCAR finally made the choice to return drivers to the oval. Since 2021, they’ve been racing the infield road course, which was alright, but the history at this track lies in the oval. This 2.5-mile asphalt and brick oval boasts 9.2 degrees of banking in the turns and no banking on the straights. Because of the length of the track, track position is clearly going to be very important, like Pocono. That being said, although Indy is a 2.5-mile track, the lack of banking on the straights, and the minimal banking in the turns does create an element where the drivers can garner the speeds and style of racing they would on the other 2.5-mile tracks that are considered superspeedways. Daytona and Talladega are tracks where the guys can maintain their momentum, draft, and push each other. Indy is not that track. Something to also take into consideration other than track position is tire wear based on the configuration at the track. We typically see tire wear as something drivers have to mitigate and teams bank on. Two or four? Lefts or rights? It’s going to be interesting to see how strategy has evolved since the last time the drivers raced here on the oval a few years ago.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, as much as I hate to repeat picks, Denny Hamlin is going to be hard to beat. He had the best speed ranking at Pocono and almost won this race the last time they raced here back in 2020. He ended up falling short after getting a flat with seven laps to go. Denny is an excellent driver on the flatter tracks as well. This is a crown jewel he is looking to capture. With an average finish of 4.2 (tossing the 2020 and 2017 misleading results), Hamlin is clearly elite when it comes to skills on this track. Another driver to keep on your radar (always) is Kyle Larson. Although he’s never run here with HMS, Larson has a notably great average finish of 8.8. In his most recent run, Larson led laps and finished the first two stages as the runner-up. He’s definitely someone to keep on your radar. Larson knows speed, and that’s what this track is going to require. Our winner at Pocono is another guy who is showing some major strength here in the summer months. Ryan Blaney floats around 10th place at Indy. He’s definitely got the potential to win, but the question is, can he strong-arm Hamlin and Larson out of position? Let’s take a look at your potential winners this weekend with odds provided by Bovada:
- Winner: Denny Hamlin
- Mid-Range Pick: Tyler Reddick
- Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe
Although Briscoe doesn’t have any Cup starts on the oval, his two Xfinity starts proved to result in top-10 finishes, with both being better than his starting position. Briscoe has shown much growth this season and is finding his feet in the Cup series still. I believe this is going to be quite the experience for him and his team. They’ve run the road course a few times as a Cup driver, but running the oval is such a different feeling and just a different experience altogether. Reddick’s first and only start on the oval at Indy resulted in an 8th-place finish. That was back when he was a rookie! He’s definitely gotten better with time. Reddick does have a win on the road course, so don’t count him out for the oval. Denny Hamlin is going to be chasing that trophy, though. He’s never won here, but that’s not going to stop him from pursuing the win. Hamlin has a strong presence on this track and has come close. This just might be his weekend. His finishes this year have been strong, and he’s well within reach.
Hamlin is also still looking for the championship trophy in addition to the one from Indy. He’s got the playoffs secured, but some of these guys are still chasing it as we discussed. Few guys, if any, will make it on points alone at the rate we’re going with “new” winners and the lack of guys winning multiple races this year. The pattern has produced many different winners, making the playoff field a little more competitive, in my opinion. Chase Briscoe is one of the guys still sitting on and off the bubble and someone without a win. This weekend would definitely bolster his confidence if he could nail down a win and secure a playoff spot. Let’s take a look at your current top 16 in the points after Pocono to see what these guys need to do this weekend to get their playoff hopes taken care of:
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Denny Hamlin
- William Byron
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ryan Blaney
- Christopher Bell
- Brad Keselowski
- Alex Bowman
- Ty Gibbs
- Chris Buescher
- Ross Chastain
- Joey Logano
- Bubba Wallace
- Chase Briscoe
Briscoe is still sitting there on the bubble, with Daniel Suarez and Kyle Busch in striking distance. Suarez and Busch are in a battle of their own switching spots back and forth each week. Suarez, though, has a win. Busch and Briscoe do not. Austin Cindric is sitting in 19th, but he has a win, so that knocks out someone in the top 16. So Suarez and Cindric will bump Wallace and Briscoe unless they come up with a win. Indy is a race that is coveted by every driver. It’s a race with an enormous history and something that a driver from any league would want to have on their roster as a winner. Will we see another first-time winner his weekend? Will Hamlin be the one to do it and get a notch on his belt? Will Briscoe surprise us and earn his spot in the playoffs? The only way to find out is to watch this weekend’s Brickyard! Stay tuned for an exciting afternoon of racing as these drivers and teams return to the historical Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Brickyard 400!