Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks and Predictions: Bristol’s Battle for the Round of 12

Race: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Date: Saturday, September 21, 2024
Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Time: 7:30 pm ET
Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

The race at Watkins Glen proved to be a bear for many of the playoff drivers, with the top 5 finishers being outside of the top 16. In fact, every one of the 16 playoff drivers had some sort of issue throughout the race. The best finisher in the group of playoff drivers was Chase Briscoe in 6th place. The second-best playoff finish was by Austin Cindric in 10th place. That just goes to show that the season ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Everybody is here for a piece of the pie. Chris Buescher took the checkered flag after moving Shane Van Gisbergen out of the way on the last lap. He said it himself. “We came here to be spoilers, and we’re going to do that.” Van Gisbergen was beat by Buescher by almost a full second once Buescher chased him down and pushed him out of the way in the notorious bus stop turn. Van Gisbergen earned the lead in an authoritative fashion by going three wide during an overtime restart, but Buescher wasn’t going to go down without a fight. He had to work through Ross Chastain and others to do it, but Buescher earned some redemption late this season with a win under his belt. It was definitely something he was looking for after losing his playoff spot when Chase Briscoe took the win at Darlington.

For whatever reason, Watkins Glen was a monkey on a lot of backs on Sunday. As mentioned, only two playoff drivers finished in the top 10, which is out of the norm for sure. The problems mounted early for these guys, too. Starting with lap 1, a wreck took out our defending series champ, Ryan Blaney. Six cars were involved in that catastrophe, also causing major issues for playoff drivers Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Brad Keselowski. In fact, Denny Hamlin had a pretty terrible day overall. He was involved in another incident along with Keselowski and Kyle Larson in the esses, causing some pretty significant damage to his #11 Toyota. Speaking of Kyle Larson, it was the end of a Hendrick streak of 5 wins at Watkins Glen after he and fellow teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron were involved in multiple incidents throughout the course of the race. Somehow, despite the multiple incidents, Larson pulled out a 12th-place finish, which was pretty important considering all of the trouble that the other drivers and teams had. To be honest, the entire top 16 was shaken up after this road course. We’ll dive deeper into the points in a minute.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

For now, let’s take a look at where these guys are headed this weekend. Much like Watkins Glen, NASCAR might just be throwing a curveball to these guys as they are now Bristol-bound for a Saturday night short track race. So far in this round, we’ve seen a pseudo super-speedway, a road course, and now none other than Bristol. With its rich history, this track is always a fan favorite. Although it isn’t the same Bristol as our childhood, it’s still a short track nonetheless, taking many prisoners throughout the race. This track now tends to give us some long green flag runs where lap traffic plays a big role in the outcomes. Because of those long runs, tires are obviously of some concern; however, because it’s a short track, drivers can often hold on just long enough to get to their next pit stop before losing too much track position due to tires. Now speaking of pit stops, Bristol is tricky to navigate for many. Speeding on pit road is a real concern. It’s a very short pit road, and there isn’t much room for error on this short track for entry. It is a 0.533 mile concrete oval with 24 to 28 degrees of banking through the turns, 5 to 9 degrees through the frontstretch, and 4 to 8 degrees through the backstretch. This track differs from others like Martinsville because of the banking through those turns. It definitely isn’t flat, so the drivers can certainly pick up more speed, carry more momentum, and take better care of their equipment than at other tracks. 

Odds and Value Picks

So who’s the best here? In recent history, Kyle Larson has the best average finish at 3.3. In 4 total starts, he has one win and three additional top 5 finishes. That’s pretty hard to beat. Denny Hamlin also has a great average finish in his last four starts here. He has a 5.5 average finish, but he has two total wins besting Larson. He’s our defending winner and also a driver that is in desperate need of a strong finish to make it to the next round. For overall career starts, Chase Elliott actually has the best average finish, but he ironically has no wins here. Hamlin has four total wins over a 34-race career at Bristol, but Larson still beats him out on the best average finish in career finishes. It isn’t by much, though. When it comes down to it, we see Hamlin as probably a more aggressive driver at the end of the race. Larson is a little cleaner, whereas Denny might just throw you in the wall for a win. He won’t admit it. But he’ll do it. So who’s going to win this weekend? Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s final race of our first round in the playoffs with odds by Bovada:

• Winner: Denny Hamlin +400
• Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch +2000
• Dark Horse: Erik Jones +11000

Jones is someone who quietly does well at these short tracks. He’s got the 9th best average finish in career starts with four top 5s. When all is said and done, this is one of his best tracks. With nothing really on the line for Jones, I’d really look for him to take some risks and work his way to the front of the pack on Saturday. Kyle Busch is another one to watch. Although he missed the playoffs and has had a relatively disappointing 2024 season, he’s probably one of the best drivers out there when it comes to Bristol. He’s also a top 10 when it comes to best-average career finishes, but he actually has eight total wins. Yes. EIGHT. That’s better than Jimmie Johnson, and that’s saying a LOT. Busch literally has absolutely nothing to lose right now and is likely looking to just check a box for a win before this season closes out. Denny Hamlin is going to work hard to prevent that from happening, though. With so much on the line for him and his team, he’s looking to execute with the intention of nothing less than a win. Hamlin is coming with fire in his veins. He’s also so close to a championship but never able to lock it down. He certainly doesn’t want to lose his opportunity in just the first round of the playoffs. Watkins Glen absolutely gave us a shakeup in the points, pushing Hamlin to the edge and leaving him with not a lot to grasp to. Let’s see where he and the rest of the field are sitting after the road course:

1. Joey Logano
2. Christopher Bell
3. Austin Cindric
4. Alex Bowman
5. Daniel Suarez
6. Tyler Reddick
7. Chase Elliott
8. Ryan Blaney
9. Kyle Larson
10. William Byron
11. Chase Briscoe
12. Ty Gibbs
13. Denny Hamlin
14. Brad Keselowski
15. Martin Truex Jr.
16. Harrison Burton

After Bristol, four drivers will be cut from the field as we move on to the Round of 12. As it stands, Hamlin, Keselowski, Truex, and Burton are on the chopping block. If they do not win, they will have to pray for the rest of the field to have an absolutely terrible day and make up a good amount of points. Hamlin is 6 points out, so it’s not unfeasible to think that he can point his way into the next round. Keselowski is sitting 12 points outside of the cut, with Truex 14 points out and Burton 20 points down. With so much on the line, it’s pretty wild to be heading to Bristol to sort it all out. It will give us some great racing, if I had to guess. Will Hamlin make the cut? Will a playoff driver win the race, or will someone outside take the checkered flag again? You’ll have to wait and see! Stay tuned for a great Saturday night of racing as these guys power it out for their final chance at making the next round in the playoffs!