Bank of America ROVAL 400: Betting Analysis & Expert Predictions | October 13, 2024
Bank of America ROVAL 400: Betting Analysis & Expert Predictions | October 13, 2024
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
If you bet on the dark horse last weekend, you’re a lucky duck! All three of my picks finished in the top 3, with Rick Stenhouse Jr. taking the win, edging out William Byron and Brad Keselowski by a mere 0.006 seconds. Stenhouse, who excels on super speedways, earned his fourth career win, all at such tracks, including the 2023 Daytona 500.
Both Byron and Keselowski were in strong contention, but Stenhouse managed to hold them off at the line. The race at Talladega marked the third non-playoff driver victory in the five playoff races so far, showing how competitive the field is. A massive pileup with five laps remaining involved 23 cars, including 8 playoff drivers. Among those with race-ending damage were Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, and Chase Briscoe. Cindric, sitting on the playoff bubble, was especially disappointed, while Logano acknowledged the difficulty in avoiding such crashes on super speedways.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the Cup Series moves to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, commonly known as the ROVAL. This 17-turn, 2.280-mile road course has only been part of the series for six years but has already made a name for itself due to its challenging layout and technical demands. It’s the last race of the Round of 12, and drivers will be giving it their all to advance to the next playoff round.
The road course at Charlotte offers unique challenges, as drivers must master both the traditional track layout and the additional road course elements. Positioning for passing opportunities is key, and some drivers are more aggressive in creating those openings.
Odds and Value Picks
Chase Elliott stands out as the only driver with multiple wins at the ROVAL, and he boasts the best road course average finish over the last 20 races. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural ROVAL race, although his victory was aided by a last-lap wreck involving Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson. Kyle Larson has also had success, with five road course wins in the last 21 races, though luck hasn’t always been on his side.
A driver to watch closely is Shane van Gisbergen, whose short road course resume is impressive. With just three starts, he has averaged the best finishes, making him a serious dark horse contender. Below are my top picks for this weekend’s race with odds provided by Bovada
- Winner: William Byron
- Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher
- Dark Horse: Shane van Gisbergen
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Byron has already secured his spot in the next round based on points but is still motivated to win. Chris Buescher, known for his underrated road course skills, is another driver to watch, especially since he’s racing without the pressure of playoff contention. Lastly, van Gisbergen remains a wild card who could surprise everyone once again.
Playoff Picture
Heading into the ROVAL, the playoff standings are as follows:
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Larson
- Denny Hamlin
- Alex Bowman
- Ryan Blaney
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott
On the bubble and needing strong performances this weekend are:
- Joey Logano
- Daniel Suárez
- Austin Cindric
- Chase Briscoe
Chase Elliott is just 13 points above the cutoff line and needs to avoid mistakes to advance. Suárez, Cindric, and Briscoe must push for top finishes to stay in the hunt. With the stakes high and the road course adding an extra layer of unpredictability, this weekend’s race promises plenty of drama and excitement.
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