Ally 400 Pick & Predictions
Date: Sunday June 30, 2024
Track: Nashville Superspeedway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Christopher Bell managed to pull out the victory last weekend at New Hampshire. After starting 4th, winning Stage 1, and finishing 4th in Stage 2, Bell was clearly the class of the field. His 1.104 lead over second place Briscoe was evidence of just how good his car was all day despite the weather that literally put a damper on things. At lap 219, Tyler Reddick was praying for the rain to end the race, but NASCAR worked fervently despite the 2 hours and 14 minutes it took to resume the race. The drivers got back on track and Bell scored the victory after leading a race high 148 laps of 305 total. He also won the race the day prior in the Xfinity Series. It was a good weekend for Bell.
Alex Bowman struggled early on with engine issues, being the first car to exit the field. Other guys like Chase Elliott and Joey Logano danced together but failed to execute and crashed on lap 194. Martin Truex Jr. was a victim of his own pit crew. A lengthy stop put him mired back in traffic. He ended up crashing shortly after that stop on lap 210. The top 5 was a little more surprising than usual. Chase Briscoe took the runner up spot followed by Josh Berry, Kyle Larson, and Chris Buescher. What a phenomenal finish for Josh Berry! I’m telling you, he’s going to be one to watch in the years to come! I’d even say lookout this weekend at Nashville! This is Berry’s home track, after all.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to Nashville Superspeedway! This track is really unique in its own right. It’s a 1.33-mile concrete tri-oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, 9 degrees on the front stretch, and 6 degrees on the backstretch. It’s been a long run for this place, with only recent history providing evidence of Cup Series racing near Nashville. In fact, 2021 was the first year since 1984 that the area held a Cup Series race. The track is not a Superspeedway like Daytona or Talladega, despite its name. But it’s also not a true intermediate. It’s interesting how it’s deemed a Superspeedway, but it definitely is not what we envision. The banking at 14 degrees and tri-oval configuration creates a little bit of that element. Overall, it’s a track that allows the drivers to drive away from the field if they get the clean air and track position; but it is certainly does not present the same level of unpredictability that the major tracks do.
Odds and Value Picks
That being said, we don’t have a long history to go on here when it comes to comparison. With only three races to base anything on so far, this year’s performance is going to be pretty telling of the results if I had to guess. Right now, we have Ross Chastain sitting at the top of the best average finish list. He’s followed by none other than Kyle Larson, retired Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin. Chastain and Larson both carry a win here. Chase Elliott is the other driver who has a win, but even with that win, he averages a 15th-place finish. I’m not sure that’s accurate with such a small sample to pull from, but that’s what we’re dealing with. This year, I think it’s pretty clear to see that Kyle Larson is going to be hard to beat here. The kid is just on fire. He’s in contention in every race. If he wrecks, it’s because he was racing as hard as possible, or someone else just had some misfortune. Christopher Bell is someone else to keep your eyes on. He’s coming off a win at New Hampshire last weekend, and he’s got a top-4 best average finish. Clearly, he’s pretty strong here. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Nashville:
- Winner: Kyle Larson +400
- Mid-Range Pick: Ross Chastain +850
- Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs +2000
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Ty Gibbs is having a good year. He’s currently sitting in 11th in the standings with eight top-10s this year, and two stage wins. He’s got an average 13th-place finish at Nashville and has run decently well at the intermediate-length tracks this year. This might be a shot for him to get a coveted win. Ross Chastain would also like to get back into victory lane. He’s had an up-and-down year so far. He’s got 7 top 10 finishes and 1 stage win. Of those top-10s, he’s got two top-5 finishes. This team needs a shot of victory. His average finish is 2.7. In just three races, Chastain has one win and two other top-5 finishes. They obviously understand Nashville. Will they be able to turn it around this weekend? Not if Kyle Larson has anything to say about it! It’s just hard to bet against him. Larson is going to be the one to beat. He knocked Elliott off the top of the podium. How will the rest fare after this weekend’s race? Let’s see where they landed after New Hampshire.
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Tyler Reddick
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Ross Chastain
- Brad Keselowski
- Ty Gibbs
- Alex Bowman
- Chris Buescher
- Joey Logano
- Bubba Wallace
- Chase Briscoe
Kyle Busch was knocked out once again. He’s having a terrible year. He’s got no victories and not even a stage win this year. That’s pretty hard to believe. Maybe Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was on to something when he told him he was basically washed up. Maybe Nashville will be a turning point for them? Who knows. It would be nice to see Busch have a good weekend earned by good driving. I’m not so sure that Stenhouse wasn’t hitting the nail on the head, though. Maybe it’s Brexton’s turn. We’ll have to wait and see how this weekend plays out. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing at Nashville Superspeedway!
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