All-Star Open and All-Star Race Value Picks

Race: NASCAR All-Star Open and All-Star Race

Date: Sunday, May 21, 2023

Track: North Wilkesboro Speedway

Time: 5:30 pm ET and 8 pm ET

Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

It looked to be Hendrick’s show by the end of the race at Darlington on Sunday! William Byron managed to take the win over Saturday’s Xfinity winner and teammate Kyle Larson, who got tangled with none other than Ross Chastain with only six laps to go. On the green-white-checkered finish, Byron was able to hold off Kevin Harvick to be the first with three wins this season. For Byron, it was a well-fought and earned victory after being shoved by Logano just a year ago and losing the race. Not only was it a significant win for Byron, but it was also a significant win for the Hendrick organization. This was the 100th win for the #24 car, most of which were obtained by none other than Jeff Gordon. Another huge victory for this team was securing the first Darlington win for any Hendrick team since 2012, when Jimmie Johnson took home the win.

The biggest losers were really Chastain and Larson, who seemingly had the strongest cars of the day by and large. Unfortunately, the late race scuffle resulted in a 20th-place finish for Larson and a 29th-place finish for Chastain. No regrets from the driver of the #1 car, that’s for sure. Chastain races hard and admits it. He has no sorrow when it comes to going for a win and what may come of it. The Hendrick garage is not happy about it, especially with Larson being entangled in Chastain’s antics at both Dover and Talladega already this year. Another Chastain casualty was Martin Truex Jr., who led 145 of the first 151 laps with a very strong car. Chastain managed to clip him at the end of the stage, causing Truex to play catch-up for the rest of the race. Unfortunately, Truex was also involved in a late race incident with Joey Logano that resulted in a major wreck with just 15 laps to go. Eight cars were involved, including the 3rd and 4th place cars of Truex and Logano. Prior to that incident, Erik Jones suffered a catastrophic loss of his right rear wheel on lap 193, causing pure chaos for Gragson, Suarez, Dillon, Gibbs, and Ryan Newman. It was definitely an unfortunate situation, especially since it was Newman’s first race in quite a while.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the entire NASCAR family is stoked to go to a track that’s been deserted by NASCAR since 1996. North Wilkesboro Speedway is hosting the All-Star Race on Sunday night. This place is just cool. It originally opened 75 years ago in May of 1975. It is a 0.625-mile oval track with 14 degrees of banking in the turns and 3 degrees on the straights. The neat thing about this track is that it’s old school. It’s a short track with a ton of history, and although it’s been completely revamped, it’s still very reminiscent of the origins of NASCAR and what stock car racing really started as. What to expect is going to be very very very difficult to even fathom here. This is a huge learning curve for all involved. The one thing that I would count on is track position being a tremendous consideration for all of the drivers. On these short tracks, it’s so easy to get lapped. As a track that is somewhat between the size of Bristol and Richmond, it’s going to be pretty neat to see the strategies play out and to see how tire wear and track position go hand in hand. Pit stops are going to be another critical component. I think that this race can be won or lost on pit road, so all of the crews will need to be at the top of their game.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to predicting a winner for the All-Star, well, that’s a hard one. It’s all going to start with a pit crew challenge on Friday that will set the field, thus the importance of the pit crew starts from the inception of this entire shindig. For every one that won in 2022 and 2023 so far, a spot is earned into the race automatically. Past champions and past All-Star race winners will also have a secured spot. Prior to the main event, the Open will be a 100-lap prelude for all of the drivers not already guaranteed a spot. From that race, the top 2 finishers will advance, and there will also be a fan vote winner as well. With the main event being a 200-lap shootout with a competition caution in the middle at 100 laps, strategy is going to come into play. Even more challenging is that NASCAR is only giving each team 4 sets of tires, and only one set can be used after the competition caution. I think that’s dumb, but my opinion doesn’t matter, so there’s that. The All-Star race is typically one where it’s about the money and the bragging rights. Because of that, it’s no holds bar, and anyone has the potential to win. Here’s a look at your potential winners based on who we know is starting on Sunday as listed at Bovada Sportsbook.

• Winner: Ross Chastain +1000
• Second Choice Pick: Kevin Harvick +700
• Dark Horse: Bubba Wallace +2500

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So the thing about this race is that everyone is just going for the notoriety. There are no points involved. Because of that, many of the drivers are willing to take some serious risks. Wallace has a few wins under his belt and might just make something out of the return to Wilkesboro. Because no one has raced here before, there’s really no advantage for one driver over the other. Kevin Harvick, although he doesn’t have a win here, has 2 previous All-Star wins. He’s got the passion to get back to victory lane. As I’ve mentioned in the past, his last year full-time in this series is going to make him want to do something to be remembered. This might be his weekend to do it. Ross Chastain, though, well…it’s Chastain’s world, and we’re just living in it. If anyone has the gumption to hit someone for a win, it’s him. With a new track and that type of attitude, good luck to the rest of ‘em! With points not mattering, HA! Y’all better watch out, or you’re bound to be #chastained. For what it’s worth, we’ll take a look at the standings as these guys head into the All-Star. These won’t change until they wrap up the Coca-Cola 600 the following weekend, but it’s worth taking a look to see how Darlington treated everyone.

1. Ross Chastain
2. Christopher Bell
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Denny Hamlin
5. William Byron
6. Martin Truex Jr.
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Tyler Reddick
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Kyle Larson
11. Kyle Busch
12. Joey Logano
13. Chris Buescher
14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
15. Bubba Wallace
16. Chase Briscoe

Bowman is out once again, sitting in 17th place. He’s had a challenging year, but maybe he can reset and gain some confidence and momentum by just having fun this weekend. Chastain has absolutely nothing to lose. He’s at the top of the points standings and really could care less what anyone thinks of his driving style. This race is the perfect platform for him. He’s going to take that to the bank and be a force to be reckoned with this Sunday. Stay tuned for the return of NASCAR to North Wilkesboro Speedway as these guys battle it out for bragging rights at the All-Star!