2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Analysis & Picks

Date: Sunday August 18, 2024

Track: Michigan International Speedway

Time: 2:30pm ET

Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Well, if that’s how you want to make your granddaddy proud, I guess more power to ya. Austin Dillon took home the win at Richmond this Sunday evening after an overtime restart. Apparently, he was so stuck on winning that he’d do absolutely anything to win. He said it himself in his post race interview. It was probably one of the most ridiculous last lap scenarios I’ve seen in racing. Dillon literally ran straight through Joey Logano. Logano outraced Dillon on the restart, cleared his car with ease, and had a solid car length or more on him into the final turns. Dillon used his momentum to smash Logano out of the way. We are all used to and even expect a little bump and run. Dillon didn’t trust himself to have enough skill to race that way, though, and just straight plowed Logano, causing him to spin. Following, Dillon’s chaotic lack of skill took out Hamlin as well.

I don’t have much respect for a driver that can’t get a clean win…or at least a win that required some skill. Dillon could’ve chosen to at least race in a way that would’ve afforded the other drivers a chance, but he chose the cheap way out and just wrecked the leaders. Logano clearly wasn’t thrilled after the race and rightfully so. Hamlin, whom I don’t have a lot of nice words for either, was also correct in his evaluation of the lack of skill shown by Dillon. He still managed a 2nd place finish despite how rough his car looked. Logano was not as fortunate, coming home with a 19th place finish after seemingly having a winning car. Other drivers had some solid finishes as predicted. Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain rounded out the top 5 spots. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott, and Daniel Suarez were the remainder of your top 10 drivers. Hocevar had a strong showing, and it was good to see that team have a solid day. The day at Richmond was pretty nonchalant, with the tire option really doing nothing to create better racing. In fact, the only caution for the entire race short of the stages was caused right at the end by Ryan Preece and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. That was the incident that caused the overtime.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to a much different atmosphere and style of track at Michigan International Speedway. Michigan is a 2 mile D-shaped oval track with 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 5 degrees on the backstretch, and 12 degrees on the start/finish line. Michigan is a speed track. Unlike Richmond, this truly is a place where the leaders get out front and drive away. You will get lapped. Tires will play a role to an extent depending on green flag runs. With Richmond having no cautions until the very end, I think we’ll see something similar at Michigan unless we have tire failures.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner at this track, there are a few notable names that we have to be cognizant of. The biggest threat at this track is none other than Kyle Larson. He’s really the gatekeeper at Michigan and just thrives at tracks like this throughout the circuit. Larson’s average finish in the last 4 races is 5th. He has 3 career victories here and is just the guy to beat on Sunday. Nobody has outperformed him on the intermediates this year. Reddick is going to be another driver to have eyes on. He’s in the top 5 of best driver averages on these tracks and was a contender in the 2023 race. And finally, who else but Denny Hamlin could round out our top 3 A list picks? Hamlin also has a couple of wins here and has been very consistent this year everywhere he’s been. Before being ousted by Dillon last weekend, Hamlin was also a factor to win at Richmond. Let’s take a look at your total list of potential winners for Michigan with their odds provided by Bovada:

Winner: Kyle Larson +600

Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +1000

Dark Horse: Erik Jones +12500

Jones is a sentimental pick for the sheer fact that this is his home track. Ultimately, he’s probably a solid teens driver here, but out of our dark horse pool, he’s got the home town advantage coupled with two top 10 finishes here as well. That puts him at the top of the list. Brad Keselowski isn’t necessarily a B list driver for the fact that he’s in the playoffs. The bottom line is consistency matters and he’s struggled this year with few exceptions. At Michigan, Keselowski is still looking for his first win. He has multiple top 5 and top 10 finishes but hasn’t had the chance to take home the checkered flag. He’s looking to change that this weekend in preparation for the playoffs. This guy needs some wins and needs some points. They’re all going to have to chase down Larson, though. Let’s take a look at your current standings after Richmond:

1. Kyle Larson
2. Tyler Reddick
3. Chase Elliott
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Ryan Blaney
6. Christopher Bell
7. William Byron
8. Martin Truex Jr.
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Alex Bowman
11. Ty Gibbs
12. Bubba Wallace
13. Chris Buescher
14. Ross Chastain
15. Joey Logano
16. Daniel Suarez

Bubba Wallace picked up 2 spots after his top 5 finish at Richmond. That was good for him with only 3 races remaining until the playoffs! Chase Briscoe wasn’t as fortunate with Daniel Suarez knocking him off the bubble position. These last few weeks are going to be pedal to the medal for many drivers. Dillon showed us that there are guys willing to do literally anything to make the Chase. Will we see another finish like Richmond? Stay tuned to find out as these guys gear up for a great afternoon of racing at Michigan!

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