Cook Out 400 Race Predictions | Value Picks

Date: Sunday August 11, 2024

Track: Richmond Raceway

Time: 6pm ET

Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

The drivers and teams (and fans!) have been given an unusual two week break, but we are back at it this weekend as everyone heads to Richmond ready to get back to the action. With only four regular-season races remaining, the pressure is definitely on. Many guys have wins already, but there are still several needing a win to secure their spots. Unfortunately for those guys, Kyle Larson was a repeat winner at the last race the drivers were at, which just happened to be the Brickyard 400. This notorious race is one of the premier races to win on any circuit. For Larson, it was a bittersweet victory after his debacle with the Indy 500 just a couple of months ago. It was meant to be. Even Jeff Gordon noted that Larson was “driving for a purpose.” It was that evident that he was hungry for this particular win. In fact, Larson had an unscheduled pit stop that put everything in jeopardy; however, that didn’t stop his charge over the final 32 laps. Larson was able to move from 12th all the way to the lead. A little luck was involved when the leader, Brad Keselowski, ran out of fuel. This left Larson tasked with passing 2nd place Ryan Blaney, which was clearly not much of a challenge. This happened just in time before another crash involving five cars brought out the red flag.

For Blaney, it was a bit of a heartbreak, as he worked hard to block Larson, but it just wasn’t in the cards. With the race ending with seven overtime laps, Larson did a great job of doing what he does best: driving hard with only one goal: winning. Larson is the risk taker that no one else is. When even team owner Rick Hendrick had reservations about Larson’s bold driving, Larson never backed down. When Brad Keselowski ran out of fuel, it still didn’t matter. Larson was committed to the strategy, and it paid off in dividends. This was Larson’s 4th win of the season and a notch on the belt of winning all crown jewel races. The only one remaining is the Daytona 500. Honestly, he’ll get it. That will be no surprise. There were a few shining spots for other drivers throughout the race, most notable Bubba Wallace winning his first stage of a race since 2022. Denny Hamlin won the opening stage.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers are going to attempt to head to Richmond. I say attempt as tropical storm Debby makes her way up the east coast. We will have to see how it all pans out for these drivers and teams. Sunday isn’t looking too bad, but it seems like Richmond is doomed with rain. The Spring race was also shadowed with rain and storms, but NASCAR was able to get the race in. We will have to wait and see what this storm does in the area, but so far, we are on for racing at Richmond this weekend. Richmond has become one of the more monotonous races over the years, and I hate to say that. It’s become a track where the leader pulls away, no one can catch him, and there’s not a lot of passing as the races progresses. This weekend, though, a new tire compound is being brought to the track, and I have a feeling this is going to change things a little bit. Hopefully, this creates a bit more of a challenge for the drivers and an element of strategy that must be played out. It also might mean that we see more cars in the wall depending on how well Goodyear has worked this compound out. We’ve seen Goodyear make some good changes in the past, but we’ve also seem some pretty questionable changes as well. Quite frankly, I just want to see more passing and more tire wear that results in more necessary strategy. Richmond is a 0.75 D-shaped asphalt oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, 8 degrees on the frontstretch, and 2 degrees on the backstretch. It’s basically a big short track. You’d think it would create a little more action, but with the paving of the track and the cars changing over time, the challenge has become less and less. Here’s to hoping the tire compound does something about that!

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, there are some historically good drivers here, most notably the hometown driver Denny Hamlin. He’s from Chesterfield, just outside of Richmond. With five wins in his career and 19 overall top-5 finishes in 35 starts, it doesn’t take rocket science to figure out he’s going to be someone to watch. In most recent history, Hamlin holds the best average finish of 4.6 followed by Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, and Josh Berry. Over career history, Josh Berry actually holds the current best average finish, but he’s only boasting two starts total. He’s followed by Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick. So let’s look at those guys and take out some obvious facts. Harvick isn’t a contender…clearly. Berry, well don’t count him out, but he’s the least experienced of the bunch. Kyle Busch? His year has, well, struggled to say the least. I do not have him on the radar to even be in contention to be honest. I think that with his skillset, he has the opportunity to save face a little bit, but I don’t see a win on the books this Sunday. That really leaves us with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin. Who won the Spring race here? That, my friends, was Denny Hamlin. If you haven’t followed me long enough to know, I’m not a fan. I’m also not dumb. He’s the one to beat this weekend. Hamlin clearly has this place truly figured out and is the most decorated driver as of late. Out of active drivers, he’s the star of the show. Let’s take a look at your potential winners as these drivers *hopefully* head to Richmond this weekend (odds provided by Bovada):

• Winner: Denny Hamlin +500
• Mid-Range: Chris Buescher +1600
• Dark Horse: Josh Berry +2000

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So Josh Berry has only run two Cup races at this track. He’s got 4 Xfinity starts behind him as well. As mentioned, he’s top-5 for average finishes with Cup drivers, but what we didn’t discuss was that his four Xfinity starts resulted in three top-10 finishes. Obviously, Berry has a knack for this style of track. I think that he’s on to something. Berry is finding his feet still in the Cup world and keeps seemingly getting the short end of the stick, but the guy is doing a great job with the cards he’s been dealt. I think that Richmond will provide another great finish for him and the entire team. Chris Buescher is a driver with a little bit of a rough past at Richmond; however, his last two races resulted in a win and another top-10 finish. He had a top 5 back in 2022 as well. For Buescher, those types of consistent finishes mean something for him and his team. This weekend will give him an opportunity to bring out his competitive side and get to the front of the pack. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the running and consistently top 10 throughout the race. Chasing Denny Hamlin is going to be a chore, though. That guy is going to be the one to watch. Coming off a win from the Spring, Hamlin has nothing but confidence in this place. He’s locked into the playoffs already. For Berry and Buescher, it’s a different story. Let’s see where everyone is sitting in the points after their last race at the Brickyard:

1. Kyle Larson
2. Chase Elliott
3. Tyler Reddick
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Ryan Blaney
6. William Byron
7. Martin Truex Jr.
8. Christopher Bell
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Alex Bowman
11. Ty Gibbs
12. Chris Buescher
13. Ross Chastain
14. Bubba Wallace
15. Joey Logano
16. Chase Briscoe

There were no jumps in or out of the top 16 after the race at Indy. Some slight movement occurred within, but nothing major. Our top 6 drivers are secure in the playoffs. Truex Jr. is still looking for a win, and he’s another guy that’s usually pretty good at Richmond, so don’t count him out, especially in the climate of trying to earn your spot in the playoffs. Gibbs, Buescher, Chastain, Wallace, and Briscoe are also looking for a win to earn their spots. With only 4 races remaining, that means that a couple of these guys are going to be locked in with points. That adds another element to these races, with some drivers opting to go all in and take any risk to win and some drivers being more conservative and working on gaining the most points they can to capture their spot. None of this is guaranteed. Whatever choices these guys decide to make are going to be paramount to where we see them in 4 weeks when the regular season concludes. Stay tuned to see where Richmond leaves these guys as they battle it out on the big short track this weekend!