2024 Cook Out 400 Picks & Race Analysis
Race: Cook Out 400
Date: Sunday April 7, 2024
Track: Martinsville Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Richmond was almost a washout but somehow someway, the rain skirted the track after about 7:30. It was pretty miraculous. In a race that I had little hope of attending Sunday night, God parted the skies and allowed the rain to stay away just far enough for the drivers and teams to get onto the track in a respectable amount of time. The jet driers were running before the rain even completely stopped, and they did a fantastic job and getting the guys on the track. One thing that everyone was wondering about was the tires. Goodyear brought a “wet” tire to the track in anticipation of the rain. The cars started out on those tires, but no one really knew how they would hold up. They ran around 40 laps or so before coming in under a competition caution to change to slicks. It seemed like they held up just well enough because the teams were saying that they were down to nothing by the time that they got to pit road for the change.
Overall, it was definitely a strong product from Goodyear. I think everyone was impressed. One person less than impressed by the end of the race was Martin Truex Jr. After leading the most laps of the night, a late race caution caused by Bubba Wallace dumping Kyle Larson resulted in Truex getting passed in overtime, leaving teammate Denny Hamlin passing him for the win. Truex let EVERYONE know how unhappy he was from Kyle Larson back to Hamlin, giving Hamlin quite a few shoves down the track after the conclusion of the race. I get his frustration, but, dude. Chill out. One thing that I think everyone is still wondering about is the final restart. Even the announcers seemed a little surprised that NASCAR didn’t call out Denny Hamlin for jumping the start. It seemed a little auspicious, but, hey, that’s what Denny does. He’s the golden boy of NASCAR anyway.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are continuing on a short track journey. They are staying in Virginia and headed to the track affectionately known as “The Paperclip”. If you take a look at the aerial view, you’ll see why they call it that. The straightaways are extremely short at just 800 feet, with heavy braking required into the turns and just a touch more banking than Richmond, but not nearly as much as Bristol. The track requires quite a bit of skill just to stay on the lead lap. We saw a lot of lap traffic at Richmond, and it only gets worse at Martinsville. Drivers get lapped fast and often stay a lap or more down. Gone are the days where drivers came back from being three laps down for the win like Jeff Gordon did many moons ago.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Martinsville, we have our likely suspects. This is a track, like most short tracks, where the rookies will struggle. It’s tough to get it all right at once, but that’s what you have to do at these places. No mistakes on the track. No mistakes on pit road. And show up with a strong car. We saw quite a few pit road penalties at Richmond, namely speeding, so teams will have to be cautious this weekend and minimize errors. Many of the same guys that were strong at Richmond will be strong at Martinsville, but there were quite a few drivers we anticipated having great days the ultimately struggled. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch were two guys that really had a tough day and just never got their cars in competitive gear. They’ll certainly be hoping for a better weekend at this short track, but only time will tell if they can make that happen. Let’s take a look at your potential winners for this Sunday’s race with the driver odds provided by Bovada:
- Winner: Denny Hamlin
- Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace
- Dark Horse: Todd Gilliland
Gilliland was running strong for a good part of the race at Richmond. Coming into Martinsville, he’s sitting on an average finish of 19.5 at this track. It seems like he’s definitely improving on those numbers at all tracks this year. Bubba Wallace had a great run going at Richmond, and Martinsville is even better for him. In his most recent finishes, he’s floating around 14th. Based on how competitive he’s been this year, I don’t put it past him to be up front and stay there on Sunday. He was in good position at Richmond for sure, and he maintained a top 5 run for a big part of the day. Denny Hamlin will continue to be the one to beat. I don’t like to pick repeats, and truth be told, I picked Kyle Larson last week and Hamlin lucked into the win, but Hamlin is the class of the field at Martinsville and considers this a “home” track. In all races, Hamlin has the third best average finish at 10.1. He’s only bested by Ryan Blaney and Jimmie Johnson. I think that he’s going to be at the front of the field for the checkered flag. He’s looking to get to the top of the leaderboard, and gained a spot after Richmond, putting him in third. Let’s take a look at your top 16 drivers after Richmond:
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Kyle Larson
- Denny Hamlin
- Ty Gibbs
- Ryan Blaney
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
- Chase Elliott
- Ross Chastain
- Tyler Reddick
- Alex Bowman
- Chris Buescher
- Kyle Busch
- Bubba Wallace
- Daniel Suarez
- Brad Keselowski
Wallace was the biggest winner of the night by picking up 4 spots in the standings, landing him back in the top 16. Keselowski is looking to capitalize on his Richmond success with a top 8 finish and translate to a strong finish here at Martinsville. That team could use some wins, so I think Brad will run a smart race. Daniel Suarez had a rough go of it at Richmond after being spun early, landing him with a 22nd place finish. It was disappointing, but he did manage to come back from 36th position and gain those valuable points. His continued determination is going to keep him in the top 16 if nothing else does. Martinsville is going to be a race that requires that level of determination, so stay tuned and hold on to your hats for a great afternoon of short track racing!