Yankees vs. Royals ALDS Game 4 Picks and Predictions

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Date: Thursday, October 10th, 8:08 ET
Location: Kauffman Stadium
TV: None
Money Line: Yankees -152/Royals +130
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Kansas City Royals and the Yankees on Thursday, October 10th at Kauffman Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Thursday’s forecast in Kansas City calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The Yankees are facing the Royals on the road, and the game is set for 8:08 PM ET from Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City is 2nd in the AL Central, while the Yankees are 1st in the AL East with a record of 94-68.

New York is currently favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -152 compared to the Royals at +130. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees, while the Royals are sending Michael Wacha to the mound.

Yankees vs. Royals Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 87-73 / Runline 84-81
Kansas City Royals: 86-76 SU / OU 70-92 / Runline 94-73

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Yankees vs Royals series. New York went into the matchup as slight favorites at -119 and squeaked out a 3-2 win. The Yankees offense only had four hits in the game but took advantage of their opportunities, scoring three runs in the 4th and picking up the game-winning run in the 8th.

Giancarlo Stanton was the difference for the Yankees, as he homered twice, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Kansas City’s two runs came in the 5th inning, and they had a chance to tie or win the game in the 9th but went down quietly.

Clarke Schmidt got the start for the Yankees, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out four. Tommy Kahnle got the win out of the bullpen, and Luke Weaver got the save. Seth Lugo only went five innings for the Royals, giving up two earned runs on two hits.

Yankees Records & Recent Play

Looking to close out their series against Kansas City, the Yankees hold a 2-1 lead heading into game four. New York is on the road, where they posted a 50-31 regular season record compared to 44-37 at home. As road favorites, they went 34-25 this year.

New York finished the regular season with an 84-81 run line record, including 49-33 on the road. Their games had an average run margin of +0.9. The Yankees’ over/under record was 87-73, and 85.8% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Royals Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win situation in game four of their series against the Yankees, the Royals are looking to even things up, as New York holds a 2-1 lead. Kansas City is at home, where they went 45-36 during the regular season, compared to 41-40 on the road. As favorites, the Royals posted a 50-31 record this year, while they went 39-47 as underdogs.

During the regular season, Kansas City had a run line record of 94-73, with a +0.5 run-scoring margin at home and +0.7 on the road. As underdogs, they went 53-33 against the run line. The Royals’ over/under record is 70-92, and 81.5% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line. The under has hit in their last two games.

Pitching Matchup

New York is sending right-hander Gerrit Cole to the mound today vs. the Royals. He has made 17 starts this year and has a record of 8-5 with an ERA of 3.41. Cole’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.13. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Cole’s last outing came on October 5th. This year, he has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 9.38 strikeouts per nine innings.

Michael Wacha gets the start for the Royals today and has made 29 starts this season. He is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up three earned runs in four innings of work vs. the Yankees. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Wacha has a record of 13-8 this season and an ERA of 3.35. Looking at his home/away splits, he has an ERA of 4.0 on the road compared to 3.47 at home. Wacha’s ERA for September was 3.55, and he didn’t allow more than three earned runs in any outing that month.

Yankees vs. Royals Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Yankees offense has been the best home run hitting team in the league, and they are also 3rd in the league in runs per game. Overall, they are batting .248 (7th) and are averaging five runs per contest. New York has been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game.

Aaron Judge has been the league’s top run producer, with 144 RBIs, and his 58 homers are also the best in the MLB. He comes into the game with just a .200 batting average over his last seven games, but he does have three homers in that stretch. Juan Soto is also having a strong season for the Yankees, with a batting average of .288 and 41 homers.

Heading into today’s game, the Royals have the 7th best batting average in the league at .248. Kansas City’s offense is also 13th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez have been the team’s top two power threats this season, with Witt Jr. leading the team with 32 homers and Perez right behind him at 27. Witt Jr. is also hitting .332, and Perez is batting .271.

Salvador Perez is currently on a six-game hitting streak but is just 6/28 in his last seven games. Michael Massey is also on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 10/27 in his last eight games. Over this stretch, Massey has one home run and four RBIs.

Free Yankees vs. Royals MLB Pick

It’s hard not to feel that yesterday was the game that would make or break the Royals’ post-season run. To advance now, they would need to rattle off two straight wins and have to go through Gerrit Cole. I see New York taking care of business tonight with Cole on the mound and would take them on the money line at -152.