Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 3 Picks and Predictions

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Date: Thursday, October 17th, 5:08 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: None
Money Line: Yankees -116/Guardians -101
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Yankees on Thursday, October 17th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

The Yankees and Guardians will face off in an AL matchup at 5:08 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The forecast for the game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-50s. Clarke Schmidt will start for the Yankees, while the Guardians are going with Matthew Boyd.

New York is currently 1st in the AL East with a record of 94-68, while the Guardians are 1st in the AL Central despite being on a two-game losing streak. Cleveland is the slight moneyline favorite today, with their odds sitting at -101 compared to the Yankees at -116. The over/under line is 7.5 runs.

Yankees vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 88-75 / Runline 87-81
Cleveland Guardians: 92-69 SU / OU 71-85 / Runline 84-84

The Yankees offense only scored one more run than the Indians in the most recent game of this series. New York went into the matchup as -171 favorites and picked up a 6-3 win. Heading into the game, the Yankees had scored 19 more runs than the Indians on the season.

Gerrit Cole started for the Yankees and went just 4 1/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out four. Clay Holmes got the win out of the bullpen. Tanner Bibee only went 1 1/3 innings for the Indians, giving up two earned runs on five hits.

At the plate, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres each had three hits for the Yankees. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Anthony Volpe each homered. Jose Ramirez hit the only home run for the Indians.

Yankees Records & Recent Play

As the Yankees prepare for game three of their series against Cleveland, they hold a 2-0 lead and will be on the road. New York finished the regular season with a 94-68 record, including a 50-31 mark away from home. They’ve won five straight road games and four consecutive games as the favorite.

New York’s run line record for the season is 87-81, with a 50-33 mark on the road. As favorites, they’ve gone 65-77 against the run line. The Yankees’ games have averaged 9.1 runs this year, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5 runs. Their over/under record is 88-75.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win situation in game three of their series against the Yankees, the Guardians are looking to avoid going down 0-3. Cleveland finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, including a 50-30 mark at home and a 42-39 record on the road. As favorites, they went 66-37, while they were 29-36 as underdogs.

During the regular season, Cleveland’s run line record was 84-84, with a +0.8 run-scoring margin at home and +0.3 on the road. As favorites, their run line record was 47-56, while they went 37-28 as underdogs. Their over/under record was 71-85, and 68.9% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Pitching Matchup

New York is sending right-hander Clarke Schmidt to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 2.85. So far, Schmidt has made two quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs. In that start vs. the Royals, he gave up four hits, issued four walks, and gave up one homer. Schmidt has finished with a no-decision in each of his last two outings. Opponents are batting .223 off Schmidt this season.

Matthew Boyd has made eight starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 2.72. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 10.44 strikeouts per nine innings. Boyd’s last outing came on October 12th, where he went just two innings and didn’t give up a run. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Boyd has not given up more than two earned runs in any of his last four outings. The left-hander has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 1.91 compared to 3.28 on the road.

Yankees vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs, but they also have the top scoring offense in the league at five runs per game. This has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and have the best team on-base percentage in the league.

Aaron Judge has been the best hitter in the league this season, as his 144 RBIs and 58 home runs are both the best in the MLB. He is also batting .322 for the season. Juan Soto is also having a great season, as he is 4th in the league with 41 homers and is 5th in RBIs with 109. Giancarlo Stanton has two homers in his last seven games, while Gleyber Torres has gone 9/27 in that stretch.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 39 homers are 5th in the league, and Naylor’s 31 long balls are 13th in the MLB. Ramirez also has the 3rd most RBIs in the league, with 118, while Naylor is 6th in the league with 108 RBIs. However, Ramirez has hit just .222 over his last eight games, and Naylor is batting just .243 for the season.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 11th in the league in home runs. They are batting just .238 for the season, which is below the league average, and their team BABIP of .27 is the worst in the league. Currently, Brayan Rocchio and Steven Kwan are both on seven-game hitting streaks, with Kwan hitting .448 over his last seven games.

Free Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Pick

New York is turning to Clarke Schmidt for game 3, and the last time he pitched was back on October 9th, giving the Yankees a decent outing vs the Royals, while Matthew Boyd only went two innings his last time out. I think the Guardians will get a bolt of energy being back at home for this one, and I like them to get their first win of this series. I’m taking the Guardians on the money line.