Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Can the Guardians Tie the Series?

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Date: Friday, October 18th, 8:08 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: None
Money Line: Yankees -123/Guardians +105
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Yankees on Friday, October 18th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 8:08 PM ET, the Yankees and Guardians will face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are slight +105 money line underdogs. The money line odds have the Yankees at -123.Both teams have been playing well recently, as the Guardians have won two straight, and the Yankees are 1st in the AL East with a record of 94-68. New York will be starting Luis Gil, while Gavin Williams goes for the Guardians.

Yankees vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Yankees: 94-68 SU / OU 89-75 / Runline 87-82
Cleveland Guardians: 92-69 SU / OU 72-85 / Runline 85-84

The most recent game o of this Yankees and Guardians series came right down to the end, as the Yankees rallied late but still fell short with the Guardians winning 7-5 at home. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -107 on the money line.

Cleveland’s offense got off to a fast start in this one, scoring three runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Yankees didn’t get on the board until the 3rd and could only muster two more runs in the 9th. As for the Guardians, they scored their final two runs in the 5th.

Kyle Manzardo and David Fry each homered for the Guardians, while Jhonkensy Noel scored three times and drove in two runs while going 1/1. Aaron Judge hit a home run for the Yankees, going 1/5.

Yankees Records & Recent Play

As the Yankees prepare for game four of their series against Cleveland, they hold a 2-1 lead and will be on the road. New York finished the regular season with a 94-68 record, going 44-37 at home and 50-31 on the road. As favorites, they posted an 81-62 record while going 18-8 as underdogs.

New York’s games have averaged 9.1 runs this season, compared to today’s over/under line of 8 runs. Their run line record is 87-82, and they went 50-34 against the run line on the road. The Yankees have hit the over in two straight games.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win game four against the Yankees, Cleveland is looking to avoid a third straight loss in the series. The Guardians finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, including a 50-30 mark at home and 42-39 on the road. As favorites, they went 66-37 while posting a 30-36 record as underdogs.

Cleveland’s run line record stands at 85-84, with a 42-42 mark at home. They’ve covered the run line in two straight home games. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.2 total runs this season, and their over/under record is 72-85. The over has hit in their last two games.

Pitching Matchup

New York is sending right-hander Luis Gil to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA. Gil’s WHIP for the season is 1.19, and opponents are batting .184 this year. In his last outing, Gil took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work vs. the Pirates. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Gil has been much better on the road this year, coming in with a record of 9-3 and 3.84 ERA compared to 6-4 with a 6.11 ERA at home.

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Yankees, and he comes into the game with a record of 3-10 and ERA of 4.86. Williams has made 16 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.37. Looking at his overall numbers, he has issued 3.79 walks per nine innings compared to 9.36 strikeouts. Williams has made seven starts at home and is 0-7 with a 6.98 ERA. On the road, he is 3-3 with a 10.13 ERA. Williams has allowed at least two homers in three straight starts.

Yankees vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs this season, but they are also 1st in team RBIs and are 3rd in the league in runs scored at five runs per game. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the MLB right now. New York has been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game.

Aaron Judge has been the league’s top run producer this season, with 144 RBIs, and is also 1st in the league in home runs (58). He has also been great in terms of batting average, hitting .322. Juan Soto is also having a big year for the Yankees, as he is 2nd on the team with 41 homers and is batting .288. Giancarlo Stanton has three homers in his last five games and is hitting .389 over that stretch.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 4.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .238, which is just 14th in the league, and their team OBP of .307 is also below the league average. One thing to watch is their team’s BABIP of .27, which is the worst mark in the MLB this season.

José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power threats this season, with 39 and 31 home runs, respectively. Ramirez’s 118 RBIs is the 3rd best mark in the league, while Naylor’s 108 RBIs is 6th. However, Ramirez has just a .211 average over his last five games, while Naylor has gone 4/12 in that stretch. David Fry has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 4/12 with two homers in his last five games.

Free Yankees vs. Guardians MLB Pick

The Guardians are coming off a dramatic win in game 3 of this ALCS series and have a chance to tie things up. But the way I’m playing Game 4 is to take the over at eight runs. Both starters haven’t pitched in a while, and Gavin Williams is prone to giving up the long ball. Look for this to be a high-scoring game, and go with the over at eight runs.