World Series Game 1 Odds & Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros
Date: Friday October 28th, 08:03 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: FOX
Money Line: Phillies +141 / Astros -170
Total Line: 6.5

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25)
Houston: Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Brandon Marsh CF
Jean Segura 2B
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Justin Verlander P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 89-79-5 / Run Line W/L 89-84-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 62-98-9 / Run Line W/L 90-79-0

The Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday October 28th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:03 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

In the Philadelphia Phillies’ last game, they picked up a 4-3 win over San Diego. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited San Diego to 3 runs on 5 hits. The Phillies benefited from an offense that generated 4 runs on 6 hits. Heading into their last game, Philadelphia was the betting favorite at -135.0. Through 113 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 60.0%. With the over-under line set at 6.5 runs, the Phillies and San Diego combined to go over this total. Philadelphia now has an over-under record of 89-79-5.

The Phillies come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +6. Philadelphia’s offense heads into action averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.65. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 54 series played, going 27-22-5.

The Astros are coming off a tight 6-5 win over the Yankees. Houston’s pitching staff gave up 9 hits, leading to 5 Yankees runs. In the victory, the Astros came up with 9 hits and 6 runs. Despite being the underdogs, getting 100.0 on the moneyline, the Astros still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 23 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 52.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Astros and Yankees combined to surpass the line of 6.5 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 62-98-9.

Over their last 5 games, the Astros have not lost a game, going 5-0. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +10 (last 5). Houston has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.54. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 36-13-6.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Aaron Nola (11-13) as their starter. Currently, Nola has an ERA of just 3.25 while pitching an average of 6.41 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .218. Home runs have not been an issue for Nola, as he is giving up just 0.83 HR/9. On the season, Aaron Nola has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. This includes a per-game average of 7.34 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.27 walks per outing.

Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros, with an overall record of 18-4. Through 28 appearances, Verlander has an ERA of just 1.75 while averaging 6.25 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .186. Home runs have not been an issue for Verlander, as he is giving up just 0.62 per 9. In terms of strikeouts, Justin Verlander has a strong K% of 28.00%, including a per-game average of 6.61. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.49 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Houston History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will be playing their 4th game of the season. Houston holds the edge in the series at 2-1. Through 3 games, the series over-under record is 1-2, with the average run total sitting at nan runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.67 runs.

Betting Trends

• Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Astros are 7-0 in their last 7 playoff games.
• Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Prediction

When it comes to World Series betting, it’s like splitting hairs to pick a winner when two great teams meet. In this case, we’ve got Aaron Nola, who is 5-9 on the road, pitches worse at night, however, blanked Houston in his one appearance vs. them this season. Over his career, he has a 4.39 ERA in September. On the flip side, you’ve got Jason Verlander who is 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA at home this season. Over the last 30 days, he has a 1.17 ERA and has struck out 31 hitters over 23 innings. He’s faced Philly once this season, allowing only one hit over five innings. The Astros have the edge Friday night at Minute Maid Park.

Free MLB Pick: Astros Moneyline