White Sox vs. Pirates Picks 9/9/20

Chicago White Sox (26-16) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (14-26)
When: 7:10 p.m., Wednesday, September 9
Starting Pitchers: Dane Dunning (0-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs. J.T. Brubaker (1-0, 3.96 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Moneyline: CHW -172/PIT +158 (BetOnline)
Runline: White Sox -1.5/Pirates +1.5
Total: 9.5

Home-Park Advantage

It might seem like home-field isn’t really a thing this year with no fans in the stands, but when the Pirates and White Sox have tangled, the home field has actually played a factor. The sides have now met three times this year, and in all three games, the home team has come out on top. Last night’s game came in dramatic fashion, with Pittsburgh getting the win by overcoming a two-run deficit in the eighth inning and scoring the winning run in the ninth.

What makes the 3-0 home record interesting is that it’s the total opposite of how the teams have played for the majority of the season. The White Sox have been an excellent road team this year, owning a 15-7 record away from Chicago’s South Side. Pittsburgh is just 9-13 at home on the year, which is actually an improvement for the Pirates, who haven’t been able to find success either at home or on the road this year.

Starting Hot

If you’ve got a chance to live bet this game and the odds on the White Sox are reasonable, you might want to take it. That’s because Chicago has been absolutely deadly when it scores first, as the Pale Hose are 22-5 when they plate the first run of the game. Truth be told, the White Sox have been swinging hot bats throughout the game, as Chicago is second only to the Mets in batting average and ranks third behind the Dodgers and Padres in home runs. If there is an issue with the White Sox, it’s that they’re not always the most efficient at cashing in their chances. Chicago has just one fewer hit than San Diego this season, but the Padres have scored 31 more runs than the White Sox have this year.

That can make this a tricky game to live bet, as you’ll get better odds on the Pirates if the White Sox get a runner or two, but if the Sox score, you’ll likely end up wishing you’d backed them.

As the Pendulum Swings

J.T. Brubaker has been the king of no-decisions, as he’s taken one in five of his past six appearances. The one exception was his most recent start, a 6-2 win over the Cubs, where he picked up his first decision of the year and earned a win. While he’s been taking no-decisions, the Pirates have been alternating wins and losses in his appearances. In seven trips to the mound, Pittsburgh is 4-3 in games where he’s pitched, never following up a result with the same one as the previous result.

Here’s another interesting thing when he’s pitched: four of the past six appearances have been decided by just one run. That would fit well with the Pirates’ history on the run line, as Pittsburgh has done a fine job of staying competitive in most games before finding a way to come up short. For the year, the Pirates have managed to lose nine games by a run as the underdog, meaning they’ve covered the runline 23 times this season.

Betting Trends

• The White Sox are 16-5 in their past 21 games.
• The White Sox are 1-4 in their past five against a team with a losing record.
• The Pirates are 1-6 in their past seven interleague home games.
• The Pirates are 5-2 in their past seven against a starter with a WHIP under 1.15.
• The under is 5-1 in the White Sox’s past six against a right-hander.
• The under is 5-2 in the White Sox’s past seven road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Pirates’ past five games as a home underdog.
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Pirates’ past seven against the AL Central.
• The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Pittsburgh.
• The White Sox have lost their past five visits to Pittsburgh.

Weather Report

The ball could have a hard time jumping off the bats today, as wind is blowing in from the east-southeast at five miles an hour on a clear, comfortable 86 degree day on Pittsburgh’s North Shore.

Dan’s Pick

The Pirates have looked a lot better in recent weeks, as they’ve won 10 of their past 19. The White Sox don’t play well in Pittsburgh for whatever reason, and the Pirates have shown that there’s a lot of value in backing them to keep the game close.

I like Pittsburgh on the run line here, and given that Chicago has lost five straight in this park, I’m going to go against Brubaker’s pattern and take the Pirates to win the game outright. However, my best bet in this game is the under.