Twins vs. Mets Free Pick – Odds, Lineups, and Predictions

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets
Date: Tuesday, July 30th, 7:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: SNY
Money Line: Twins +114/Mets -134
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Twins on Tuesday, July 30th at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM ET, the Twins and Mets square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are favored on the money line (-134). The money line odds for the Twins are sitting at +114, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

David Festa is starting for the Twins, and he is facing off against Sean Manaea. The Twins are 2nd in the AL Central with a record of 58-47, while the Mets are 3rd in the NL East at 56-50. SNY will be televising this one.

Twins vs. Mets Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/Runline Record

Minnesota Twins: 58-47 SU / OU 54-49 / Runline 50-55

New York Mets: 56-50 SU / OU 57-46 / Runline 51-55

New York cruised to a 15-2 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring six of their fifteen runs. As for the Twins, they scored their only two runs in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -113 on the money line.

Jose Quintana pitched well for the Mets in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He picked up a win in the game, while Simeon Woods Richardson took the loss for Minnesota. Woods Richardson went just 3 1/3 innings and gave up six runs.

Pete Alonso and Luis Torrens each homered for the Mets, while Ryan Jeffers hit a home run for the Twins. Alonso, Torrens, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Tyrone Taylor each had three RBIs for New York’s offense.

Twins Records & Recent Play

With an overall record of 58-47, the Twins are 2nd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 5.5 games. So far, they have gone 21-14 in divisional matchups. The Twins have been good at home this season, going 29-21, and they have the same number of wins on the road.

Minnesota has been really good as the favorite this year, going 46-27 but just 12-20 as the underdog. As the road underdog, the Twins are 6-16 this season. The team’s overall series record is 21-11-2, and they have won two straight series.

When the Twins are on the road, they have a run line record of 30-25, which is a winning percentage of 54.5%. Their average run margin in those games is +0.3 runs per game. They have been favored in 73 games and have a run line record of 33-40 in those games. Their average run margin in all games is +0.4 runs per game.

The Minnesota Twins are on the road today against the New York Mets. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Twins have played in 118 games this season, and their average combined run total per game is 9.3. Their over/under record for the season is 54-49, and their average over/under line is 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-14. So far this season, 12 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 11.4% of their games.

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets kick off their game vs. the Twins with a record of 56-50, which has them 3rd in the NL East. They are nine games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 20-16 in divisional games. The Mets have won seven of their last ten games overall.

At home, the Mets are 29-28 this season compared to 27-22 on the road. This year, they have been the favorite in 62 games, where they are 34-28. As for their play as the underdog, they are 22-22. The Mets’ overall series record is 16-13-7 this year.

When betting the run line on the Mets at home, it’s been a losing proposition this season, as they are just 24-33. Their average run margin at home is just 0.2, which is slightly lower than their overall average run margin of 0.3. The Mets have been a better run line bet on the road, where they are 27-22. They have been a better run line bet as the underdog this season, going 27-17.

The Mets have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 57-46, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they are 19-11. The over has hit in their last two games, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs.

Pitching Matchup

David Festa is getting the start for the Twins on the road against the Mets. This will be his 3rd start of the season, and he is coming off a no-decision in his last outing, where he went 4 1/3 innings and gave up 1 earned run. His first start was a win vs. the Diamondbacks, and he took the loss in his 2nd start vs. the Tigers.

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Yankees on July 24th, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, four hits, and three walks. Looking back further, Manaea has made six straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs. His ERA for the season is 3.74, along with a record of 6-4. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is 1.25, and opponents are batting .219 off him this year.

Twins vs. Mets Offense Outlook

Minnesota’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 8th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. This is also where they are at in terms of home runs, and they are 7th in team batting average. The Twins are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. As a team, they are batting .253.

Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the Twins’ top power bats this season, with Santana’s 14 homers ranking 2nd on the team and Jeffers’ 15 homers leading the way. Santana is also 2nd on the team with 47 RBIs. Jeffers comes into the game on a team-high eight-game hitting streak. Over his last four games, Matt Wallner is 5/12 with two homers and three RBIs.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with both players having 22 homers, which is 11th in the league. Lindor is batting .256 for the season and has gone 5/39 (.282) over his last nine games, with five homers and 11 RBIs during that stretch. Alonso comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak and is batting .246 for the season. Brandon Nimmo is also among the league leaders in RBIs, as his 65 RBIs is 12th in the MLB.

Overall, the Mets are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, the Mets are batting .250 and have the 4th best home run total in the league. New York is also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS.

Free Twins vs. Mets MLB Pick

Things haven’t gone well for David Festa in his rookie season so far, as he was roughed up for 5 and 7 earned runs in his two starts. He did work in some long relief on July 24th and looked a little better. However, I see more struggles ahead for Festa against a Mets lineup that just put up 15 runs last night. I like the Mets not only to win but to cover the run line today.