Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Pick 7/12/19

Toronto Blue Jays (34-57) vs. New York Yankees (57-31), 7/12/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Friday, July 12
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: Aaron Sanchez (3-12, 6.16 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) vs. Domingo German (10-2, 3.67, 1.09)
TV: MLB, TVA Sports, YES

Moneyline: Yankees -265/Blue Jays +215(Bookmaker)
Over/Under: 11

The AL East-leading Yankees kick off the back half of their season with a three-game series against Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and the Blue Jays starting Friday night in the Bronx. New York is a huge favorite for the opener of this series, but there’s more than one way to bet a baseball game. How are we playing this one with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and German at around -280 over Toronto and Sanchez, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to about -265 depending on the betting site.

The Yanks could also be found giving around -145 on the MLB run line.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Set-Up

Toronto finished the first half of this season by losing two of three games to Baltimore last weekend. Just before that, the Blue Jays dropped two of three games to Boston. Going back a bit further the Jays are 1-3 over their last four series and 5-8 over their last 13 games.

New York, meanwhile, broke the first half by splitting four games with Tampa Bay. Just before that, the Yankees split two games with the Mets. Going back a bit further New York is 4-0-4 over its last eight series and 16-4 over its previous 20 games.

At 57-31 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by 6.5 games over the second-place Rays, but they’re only one game up on Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

At 34-57 overall Toronto trails New York by 24.5 games in the AL East. It’s also 17.5 games back of Cleveland and Oakland in the race for the second American League wild-card spot. So the Blue Jays are basically playing the second half of this season in search of something to build on.

New York leads the season series with Toronto four games to two.

Friday’s Starting Arms

German, by our stringent standards, is 5/13 on quality starts this season, 1/1 since doing a stint on the DL with a sore hip. Nine days ago he held the Mets to one run and five hits through six innings, with zero walks, in a 5-1 Yanks victory. But over his three starts prior to going on the DL last month German allowed 14 runs and 21 hits, including seven home runs, through 14 2/3 innings.

New York is 10-3 with German this season.

In his only career start against the Blue Jays, in August of last season, German allowed just one run and four hits through six frames of a 2-1 Yankees win.

Sanchez is just 3/19 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last eight. Last Friday he held Baltimore to two runs and three hits through five innings, although Toronto lost that game 4-1. And over his previous seven outings, he’s been roughed up for 38 earned runs and 47 hits through 32 innings.

The Blue Jays are just 5-14 with Sanchez this season, 0-9 over his last nine starts.

Over his last three starts against New York, two last year and one three weeks ago, Sanchez allowed 14 runs and 24 hits through 17 innings. Toronto lost all three of those games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Toronto is batting .225/.297/.408 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those “help” this lineup rank among the bottom five or so in the Majors in this split.

New York is batting .272/.347/.483 against RH pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank among the top two in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Blue Jays bullpen owns a 4.40 ERA this season and a 1.36 WHIP while allowing a .773 OPS.

The Yankees pen owns a 4.03 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .715 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 45-43 in Blue Jays games this season.
• Overs are 48-37 in Yankees games this season.
• Unders are 25-19 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
• Totals are split 3-3 in Jays-Yanks games this season.

Free MLB Pick

German’s stint on the DL may have done him some good; he gets the check-mark in this pitching match-up. And New York owns a significant edge with the bats. But the line on this game is too much for our taste. So we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Yankees against the run line.