Today’s MLB Pick: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Date: Sunday, June 23rd, 7:10 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Mets -105/Cubs -114
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Chicago Cubs and the Mets on Sunday, June 23rd at Wrigley Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM ET, the Mets and Cubs face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Mets are the slight money line favorites, with their line sitting at -105 compared to the Cubs at -114. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

New York will be looking for a win behind Luis Severino, while the Cubs are starting Javier Assad. Both teams are 4th in their respective divisions, with the Mets being 36-39 overall, and the Cubs are 37-40. ESPN is carrying this one on TV.

Mets vs. Cubs Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 36-39 SU / OU 38-35 / Runline 34-41
Chicago Cubs: 37-40 SU / OU 33-41 / Runline 37-40

Chicago cruised to an easy 8-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 1st inning, scoring five of their eight runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were the slight underdogs at +105.

Jameson Taillon pitched well for the Cubs in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts and picked up a win. Tylor Megill had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.

At the plate, the Cubs were led by Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki, as they were the only three Cubs hitters to have more than one hit. Morel and Suzuki each drove in two runs.

Mets Records & Recent Play

With an overall record of 36-39, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. New York will be on the road today, taking on the Cubs. The Mets are 18-23 at home compared to 18-16 on the road.

The Mets have gone 8-2 across their last ten games, and they are 11-10 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been the favorite in 39 of their games, and they are 20-19 in those matchups. As for their record as the underdog, the Mets are 16-20 this season. New York has an overall series record of 11-12-3 and have won four straight series overall.

When the Mets are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 20-14. Their average run margin in those games is +0.5 runs per game. However, they have failed to cover the run line in their last three games as the favorite, and are just 13-26 overall in that spot. They have been much better as the underdog, going 21-15 against the run line.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the New York Mets’ game against the Chicago Cubs is right on par with their season average of 8 runs per game. The Mets have gone over the line in 38 of their 73 games this season, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over in 8 of 12 games. Their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for 42.7% of their games.

Cubs Records & Recent Play

Chicago is 37-40 overall and is 7.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are just 9-17 against other teams in the NL Central. The Cubs will be at home today, where they are 22-17 compared to 15-23 on the road.

The Cubs have been good as the home underdog this year, going 8-4, and they have won two straight games as the underdog overall. Chicago is 19-18 as the favorite and 18-22 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 9-13-2 this year.

When the Cubs win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.0. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.2. They have a run line record of 37-40, with a run line record of 15-24 at home and 22-16 on the road. They are 27-13 vs. the run line as an underdog, but just 10-27 as a favorite.

The Chicago Cubs are playing at home against the New York Mets today. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Cubs’ games have had an average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 33-41. The average O/U line for their games this season is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, their O/U record is 3-9. So far this season, 49.4% of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, while 35.1% have had lower lines.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.52. Opponents are batting .217 off Severino this season, and he has a total of six quality starts. In his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, Severino has done much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 2.68 compared to 4.98 on the road.

Through 15 starts, Javier Assad has a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 2.75. He has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 9.04 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Assad finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up one earned run on seven hits. Before that, he had given up five earned runs in back-to-back starts. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a 1.79 ERA compared to 3.71 on the road.

Mets vs. Cubs Offense Outlook

Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo have been the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Alonso and Nimmo tied for the team lead in home runs (16) and Alonso leading the team with 42 RBIs. Nimmo is also on an eight-game hitting streak and has gone 8/20 with three homers over his last five games. Francisco Alvarez is also swinging a hot bat, going 10/19 in his last five games, including two home runs.

Overall, the Mets are 9th in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 9th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 18th in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .230 and are 16th in home runs. However, they do come into the game as one of the league’s best teams at drawing walks.

Christopher Morel has struggled with a batting average of just .202 this season, but he does lead the team with 14 home runs. Morel also comes into the game as the team’s leader in RBIs. Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson have both hit two homers in their last five games, with Happ going 6/18 and Swanson going 4/18.

Free Mets vs. Cubs MLB Pick

The Mets took game one of this series 11-1, and the Cubs responded with an 8-1 win yesterday. Both starters have some good overall numbers this year, but Luis Severino really struggled his last time out. I like the Cubs to pick up the win and take the series on Sunday night. I’m taking Chicago on the money line.