Tigers vs. Guardians Predictions: Game 5 MLB Picks

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Date: Saturday, October 12th, 1:08 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: None
Money Line: Tigers -120/Guardians +102
Total Line: 6

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tigers on Saturday, October 12th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Matthew Boyd and the Tigers (86-76) face off against the Guardians (92-69), who are starting Tarik Skubal. The money line odds have the Tigers at -120 compared to the Guardians at +102. This game is taking place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the over/under line is currently at six runs.

First pitch for Saturday’s matchup is set for 1:08 PM ET, and the forecasted temperature is 61 degrees with scattered clouds. Cleveland comes in as winners of two straight and is 1st in the AL Central, while the Tigers are 3rd in the division.

Tigers vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Detroit Tigers: 86-76 SU / OU 79-83 / Runline 91-77
Cleveland Guardians: 92-69 SU / OU 69-84 / Runline 83-82

The most recent game o of this Indians vs. Tigers series came right down to the end, as the Tigers rallied late but still fell short with the Indians winning 5-4 on the road. Heading into the game, the Indians were favored at -124 on the money line.

Cleveland’s offense was led by David Fry and Jose Ramirez, as they were the only two Indians hitters to have more than one hit. Fry, Ramirez, and Steven Kwan each homered for the Indians. As for the Tigers, Zach McKinstry hit a home run and went 1/2 at the plate.

Tanner Bibee only went four innings for the Indians but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Hunter Gaddis came out of the bullpen for the win, and Emmanuel Clase got the save. Beau Brieske took the loss for Detroit out of the bullpen.

Tigers Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win situation on the road, the Tigers will look to snap their two-game losing streak against Cleveland. Detroit finished the regular season with an 86-76 record, going 43-38 both at home and on the road. As favorites, they posted a 41-26 mark this year, while they went 49-52 as underdogs.

Detroit’s run line record for the season stands at 91-77, with a 54-31 mark against the run line on the road. They have a +0.4 average run margin in road games compared to +0.1 at home. The Tigers’ over/under record is 79-83, and today’s line of six runs is well below their season average of eight.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

As the Guardians prepare for this must-win game against Detroit, they’ll look to snap a two-game losing streak. Cleveland finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, including 50-30 at home and 42-39 on the road. As favorites, they went 66-37 while posting a 28-34 mark as underdogs.

During the regular season, the Guardians had a run line record of 83-82, with a home scoring margin of +0.7 runs per game. At home, their run line record was 40-42. The Under hit in 84 of their games, while the over hit in 69. Today’s O/U line of 6 runs is well below their season average of 8.2 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Guardians on the road. This year, he has made 31 starts and has a record of 18-4 to go along with a 2.39 ERA. Skubal’s WHIP for the season is .92, and he has turned in 22 quality starts. Skubal has been pitching well down the stretch, as he hasn’t taken a loss in his last three outings. In his most recent start, he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and not giving up a run to the Guardians. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Matthew Boyd has made eight starts for the Guardians this season and has a record of 2-2. His ERA is currently 2.72, along with a WHIP of 1.13. Boyd has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that start vs. the Tigers, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up four hits and two walks. Boyd has been solid at home, with an ERA of 2.29 compared to 3.28 on the road. Opponents are batting .204 off Boyd this season.

Tigers vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

For the season, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. Their batting average of .234 is 15th in the league, and they have the 19th-ranked slugging percentage in the league. Detroit’s team on-base percentage of .300 is the 21st in the MLB. The Tigers are led by Riley Greene, who is batting .262 with a team-high 74 RBIs and 24 homers. Kerry Carpenter is batting .284 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers.

Over his last eight games, Carpenter has gone 5/23 with two homers and seven RBIs. Parker Meadows is currently on a seven-game hitting streak for the Tigers.

The Guardians offense has been pretty good at home this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. Overall, they are 14th in the league in scoring at 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .238, but they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 39 homers are 5th in the league, and Naylor is 13th in the league with 31 homers.

Ramirez has been hot of late, hitting .321 over his last eight games with three homers. Steven Kwan has also been swinging a hot bat, going 10/21 in his last six games. Kwan and Brayan Rocchio are also on a four-game hitting streak. Naylor is currently on a five-game hitting streak.

Free Tigers vs. Guardians MLB Pick

Things lined up perfectly for the Tigers with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Skubal hasn’t given up a run over his last three games and 20 innings of work. Getting Detroit at -120 with Skubal on the mound is a steal; I like Detroit on the money line in this one.