Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Pick 6/14/21

Tampa Bay Rays (42-24) vs. Chicago White Sox (41-24)
When: 4:15 p.m., Monday, June 14
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Moneyline: TB-101/CHW -108 (Find the best sportsbook bonus >>>)
Runline: Rays -1.5/White Sox +1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 2.57 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs. Lance Lynn (7-1, 1.23 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)

I’ll Just Do It Myself

Lance Lynn can probably be forgiven if he feels like he’s got to do everything himself, given that the White Sox’s bullpen has let him down on a couple of occasions. Lynn hasn’t been beaten since April 15, but the White Sox have lost in two of his eight starts since then because the bullpen hasn’t gotten the job done after he’s left the game. In each of his two no-decisions, he’s held the opposition to five hits or less and given his team a chance to win the game, but the White Sox simply couldn’t stop the other team from hitting.

For the year, Lynn has peeled off nearly two full runs from his ERA in Texas, dropping from a 3.32 mark last year in Arlington to a 1.37 mark with the White Sox. Texas has long been known as a hitter’s park, but Lynn didn’t notice much of a difference in moving from the old hitter’s park in 2019 when his ERA was 3.67. What’s clear is that Lynn feels like he’s at his best in Chicago, and the results absolutely reflect his happiness with the situation, even if the bullpen has cost him twice.

Strikeout Artist

Lynn might feel like he needs to do it all by himself, but Tyler Glasnow really is doing about half of the work on his own on a nightly basis for the Rays. Thanks to the high amounts of strikeouts in the modern game, pitchers like Glasnow are cleaning up on their K totals, and Glasnow has been outstanding at sending batters back to the dugout with nothing to show for their efforts. In his past nine starts, he’s managed to fan the opposing hitter ten times or more on six occasions.

However, all of those strikeouts haven’t resulted in wins for Glasnow, winning just once in his past six starts. The Rays have managed to get the job done in four of his past six starts, but Glasnow watched the lead slip away each time and took a no-decision. At this point, Glasnow, who has also seen his ERA drop by more than a full run, has seen so many no-decisions that he’s never had more than six wins in a season. One more win would change it for him.

Perception Is Not Reality

Which of these teams is a surer bet to cause the over to cash? It’s actually the Rays, who have cashed on the over in 37 of their contests this season. On the other hand, Chicago is one of the most reliable under teams in baseball because the public still thinks of the White Sox as a young, exciting team in the mold of the Padres (who also win with pitching more than they do with hitting).

The lines are often the product of the gaming public placing its money where it believes a team is either strong or weak, so with a team that’s received a lot of hype in recent months, it’s tough for the public to start to recognize the need to change its thinking, which opens the door for smart gamblers to spot opportunity.

Betting Trends

• The Rays are 9-2 in their past 11 against the AL Central.
• The Rays have won six of eight as a road favorite.
• The White Sox have won six of seven against the AL East.
• The White Sox are 4-1 in their past five after a win.
• The over is 7-1-1 in the Rays’ past nine as a road favorite.
• The under is 5-1 in the White Sox’s past six games as an underdog.
• The Rays are 5-1 in the past six meetings in Chicago.
• The over is 18-7-1 in the past 26 meetings in Chicago.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a pleasant night for baseball, with temperatures at 73 degrees and the wind blowing out toward first base at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

Glasnow’s team has been letting him down a little more often than Lynn’s, so I have to lean toward Chicago in this situation. It’s a hard game to pick because both teams have been playing very good baseball, but with the White Sox having home-field advantage, getting close to even money on them is too hard to pass up.
I’ll take Chicago here.