St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 8/26/19

St. Louis Cardinals (71-58) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (67-63), 8/26/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Monday, Aug. 26
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Adam Wainwright (9-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs. Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64, 1.26)
TV: ESPN, FS Midwest, FS Wisconsin

Moneyline: Brewers -125/Cardinals +115
Over/Under: 9.5

The Cardinals are trying to pull away in the NL Central while the Brewers are trying to stay close, heading into the opener of this three-game series in Beer City Monday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee at around -140 over St. Louis, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped that line down to -125.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Set-Up

St. Louis just swept four games at home from Colorado over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 11-4. Just before that, the Cardinals took two of three games from these Brewers, and just before that they split four games with Cincinnati. Going back a bit further St. Louis is 13-3 over its last 16 games.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Arizona over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 5-2. Just before that, as mentioned above, the Brewers dropped two of three games to these Cardinals, and just before that they dropped two of three to Washington. So Milwaukee is only 4-5 over its last nine games.

At 71-58 overall St. Louis leads the NL East by 2.5 games over the second-place Cubs, and by 4.5 games over the 67-63 Brewers.

Milwaukee also sits just two games back of the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

The Cardinals lead the season series with the Brewers seven games to six.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Gonzalez is just 1/12 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last four. But some of that is due to a short leash. Six times he’s pitching to within three outs or less of a QS, only to get pulled. Last Tuesday he held this St. Louis outfit to one run and three hits through five innings, although Milwaukee eventually lost that game 9-4. And while he’s allowed ten runs over his last five starts, covering 24 1/3 innings, five of those runs came in one outing. The Brewers are 8-4 with Gonzo this season, 2-1 over his last three starts. Over his last three starts against the Cardinals, two last year and the one last week, Gonzalez allowed nine runs on 11 hits and nine walks through 13 innings. Milwaukee lost two of those three games. Wainwright is 10/24 on quality starts this year and two for his last three. Last Wednesday these Brewers got to him for five runs and eight hits through five innings of a 5-3 St. Louis defeat. But over his four starts previous to that he allowed nine runs – eight earned – and 24 hits through 23 2/3 innings. The Cardinals are 13-11 with Wainwright this season, 7-2 over his last nine starts. Over two starts against Milwaukee already this season Wainwright allowed six runs and 12 hits through 11 innings. St. Louis split those two games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

St. Louis is batting .244/.298/.382 against left-handed pitching this season. But the Cardinals have also scored 31 runs over their last four games. Milwaukee is batting .252/.334/.450 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cardinals bullpen owns a 3.67 ERA this season and an ML-best 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to an ML-low .649 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank the St. Louis bullpen as the best in Baseball at the moment. The Brewers pen owns a 4.64 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while allowing a .735 OPS.

Totals Report

• Unders are 70-52 in Cardinals games this season.
• Unders are 68-58 in Brewers games this season.
• Unders are 33-30 in games played at Miller Park this season.
• Unders are 7-6 in Cardinals-Brewers games this season.
• Unders are a combined 23-12 with Gonzalez and Wainwright this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re calling Monday’s pitching match-up a push, and while Milwaukee might own a slight edge with the sticks St. Louis is scoring runs in bunches as of late. In the end, this game will probably come down to the bullpens, and that’s where the Cardinals hold a significant advantage. Plus, St. Louis is just playing the better ball recently, and it’s getting an underdog price. We like the Cardinals in this spot.