Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Picks 5/6/24

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Date: Monday, May 6th, 7:40 ET
Location: Target Field
TV: BSN
Money Line: Mariners -133/Twins +111
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Minnesota Twins and the Mariners on Monday, May 6th at Target Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:40 PM from Target Field in Minneapolis, we have an American League matchup between the Mariners and Twins. Heading into Monday’s game, the Mariners have a record of 19-15, while the Twins are 19-14 overall. The money line odds have the Mariners as the favorite at -133.

As for the over/under line, it is currently at 7.5 runs, with the under paying out at -109 compared to -113 for the over. Simeon Woods Richardson is starting for the Twins, and he is facing off against Luis Castillo for the Mariners.

Mariners vs. Twins Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Seattle Mariners: 19-15 SU / OU 8-24 / Runline 17-17
Minnesota Twins: 19-14 SU / OU 16-16 / Runline 17-16

Mariners Records & Recent Play

Seattle is coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Astros with a 5-4 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +112 on the money line. It was a big 2nd inning for the Mariners, as they scored two runs to take the lead and added another two runs in the 6th to close things out. Seattle’s bullpen was also a big factor, as Andrés Muñoz picked up the save and the Mariners scored in the top of the 9th to take the lead.

Bryce Miller got the start for the Mariners, going six innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. Luke Raley had only one hit, but it was a home run, and Cal Raleigh scored the team’s other run, going 1/5.

Seattle is currently 1st in the AL West, leading the Rangers by a half-game. The Mariners are 19-15 overall and have won two straight games. Their overall record includes a 4-2 mark in divisional games. The Mariners closed out their series vs. the Astros with a win and took the series 2-1.

At home, the Mariners have gone 11-8 this year, and they are 8-7 on the road. As the road favorite, the Mariners have gone 4-1 this year, and they are 11-7 as the favorite overall. Seattle’s overall series record is 6-4-1, and they have won six straight series.

The Mariners have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 17-17 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 8-7 against the run line. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have a run line scoring margin of +0.8 runs per game away from home.

The Seattle Mariners have played in 16 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in just three of them. Their games have averaged 6.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 8-24. In their last game, the over/under line was set at 8.5 runs, and the game finished with nine runs scored. Their game before that had an over/under line of 7.5 runs, and the game finished with five runs scored.

Twins Records & Recent Play

Minnesota closed out their series vs. the Red Sox with a 9-2 loss. Heading into the game, the Twins were the heavy favorite at -185. Things started off well for the Twins, as they got on the board with a run in the 3rd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Red Sox scored three times in the top of the 4th.

Joe Ryan put together a good start for the Twins, going six innings and giving up just three runs on four hits. However, the Twins offense really struggled after their initial run, and Ryan took the loss. The Twins also wasted a big game from Ryan Jeffers, who homered in the 3rd inning, going 1/5.

Minnesota will take on the Mariners at home today with an overall record of 19-14, which has them 2.5 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins won the final two games of their series vs. the Red Sox to take the series 2-1. Currently, they have won four straight series.

At home, the Twins are 8-7 this season compared to an 11-7 mark on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 17-6 this season but just 2-8 as the underdog overall. So far, they have been 5-4-2 in series matchups.

When the Twins win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.5 runs per game. They are 17-16 vs. the run line this season, and they are 11-7 on the run line on the road. As the favorite, they are 13-10 on the run line, while as the underdog, they are 4-6.

With an average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game, the Minnesota Twins have seen their games go over the over/under line of 7.5 runs in 63.6% of their games this season. Their over/under record for the season is 16-16, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs per game. In their last game, the Twins and Red Sox combined for 11 runs, pushing the game over the 7.5 run over/under line.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Luis Castillo gets the start for the Mariners today as he faces the Twins on the road. He has made seven starts this season and has a record of 3-4 with an ERA of 3.46. Opponents are batting .247 off Castillo this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.18. One of his biggest strengths has been his ability to limit walks, as he is averaging just 1.73 walks per nine innings compared to 10.58 strikeouts. Castillo is coming off a start in which he didn’t allow a run, going seven innings and picking up the win. He has won three straight starts.

Simeon Woods Richardson has started the season with a win and two no-decisions. He picked up a win in his first start, going 6 innings and giving up just 1 earned run. He then went 5 innings in his second start and 3 2/3 innings in his last outing.

Mariners vs. Twins Offense Outlook

Cal Raleigh has struggled at the plate for the Mariners of late, going just 3/31 in his last nine games. However, he does have eight homers this season, which is the best mark on the team and 3rd in the league. Jorge Polanco is also near the top of the league in home runs, but he is also batting just .193 for the season and has gone 2/35 in his last nine games.

As a team, the Mariners are batting just .223, which is 23rd in the league. Overall, they are averaging 3.6 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. Seattle’s lineup does have the 9th most home runs in the league.

Minnesota’s offense has been one of the best in the league on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 11th in the league at 4.6 runs per contest. The Twins have been a good home run hitting team this season and have the league’s 4th best isolated power figure. As a team, they are batting .239.

Ryan Jeffers has been hot of late for the Twins, going 5/18 in his last five games with a homer and five RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Willi Castro is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 8/20 in his last five games. For the season, Jeffers is batting .291 with a team-high 22 RBIs, while Castro is hitting .277.

Free Mariners vs. Twins MLB Pick

Our prediction for today’s Mariners vs. Twins matchup is to take the Twins on the money line, with the payout sitting at +111. We have the Twins winning this one by a score of 5-4, and with the payout, there is some good value in taking them to win outright.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Luis Castillo is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and he is projected to go eight innings. As for Simeon Woods Richardson, we have him finishing with five K’s and going six innings.