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Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

by | Last updated May 10, 2019 | mlb

Red Sox Rodriguez gets the road start versus the Yankees

Seattle Mariners (20-20) vs. Boston Red Sox (19-19), 5/10/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Erik Swanson (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3-2, 5.40, 1.50)
TV: MLB, NESN, ROOT Northwest

Moneyline: Red Sox -200/Mariners +180
Over/Under: 10

Two teams trending in different directions as of late meet when the Mariners and Red Sox open a three-game weekend series at Fenway Friday night. How are we betting this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Boston and Rodriguez at around -175 over Seattle and Swanson, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then steamed that line to -200.

The Sox could also be found “getting” around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Mariners vs. Red Sox Set-Up

Seattle just dropped three of four games to the Yankees in New York this week, losing Thursday’s series finale 3-1. Just before that the Mariners lost two of three at Cleveland, and just before that they dropped two games to the Cubs in Chicago.

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So Seattle is 0-3 over its last three series and 2-9 over its last 11 games. At 20-20 overall the Mariners sit in second place in the AL West, four games behind first-place Houston.

Boston, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Orioles in Baltimore, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 2-1. Just before that the Sox took three of four games from the White Sox in Chicago, and just before that they swept three games at home from Oakland.

So Boston is 3-0 over its last three series and 8-2 over its last 10 games. At 19-19 overall the Red Sox sit in third place in the AL East, five games behind first-place Tampa Bay.

This series is the second meeting this season between these two teams; back in March the Mariners took three of four games from the Sox in Seattle.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Rodriguez is 3/7 on quality starts this season but two for his last three. Last Saturday he held the White Sox to one run and six hits through six innings of a 15-2 Boston victory, and over his last three starts he’s allowed six runs and 15 hits through 16 2/3 innings, with 20 strikeouts.

On the season Boston is 5-2 with Rodriguez, 5-0 over his last five starts.

Over his last three starts against Seattle, two last season and one back in March of this season, Rodriguez allowed 11 earned runs and 21 hits through 14 1/3 innings. The Red Sox lost two of those three games.

Rookie righty Swanson is 2/4 on quality starts this year. In his first ML start three weeks ago against Cleveland he allowed just one run and two hits through six innings. Then he gave up 10 earned runs and 18 hits, including four ding-dongs, over 9 2/3 innings against San Diego and Texas. But last Sunday, against the Indians again, he tossed six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in a 10-0 Mariners win.

So he’s been great against Cleveland, lousy against everybody else.

Seattle is 1-3 with Swanson but he deserves one win better.

This will be Swanson’s first-ever appearance against the Red Sox, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Seattle is batting .239/.341/.441 this season against left-handed pitching. But this lineup could be without a key stick in Dee Gordon, who left Thursday’s game after getting hit by a pitch on the wrist.

Boston is batting .249/.340/.406 this season against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

  • The Mariners bullpen owns a 4.96 ERA this season and a 1.48 WHIP.
  • Red Sox relievers own a 4.01 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.

Totals Report

  • Overs are a lopsided 26-12 in Mariners games this season.
  • Overs are 21-16 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 8-7 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
  • Overs are 6-1 with Rodriguez this season, mainly thanks to some great run support.
  • Overs are 3-1 with Swanson this season.
  • Overs are 4-0 in Mariners-Sox games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Boston is warming up, while Seattle is cooling down, and that’s all we need to know for this game. But we don’t like that inflated price. So we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Red Sox against the run line.

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