San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Date: Monday, July 4th, 06:10 ET
Location: Chase Field
TV: NBCS BA
Money Line: Giants -175 / Diamondbacks +144 (BAS)
Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

San Francisco: Carlos Rodón (7-4, 2.62)
Arizona: Madison Bumgarner (3-8, 3.63)

Giants Projected Lineup

Austin Wynns C
Tommy La Stella 3B
Mike Yastrzemski CF
Thairo Estrada 2B
Evan Longoria 3B
Curt Casali C
Darin Ruf LF
Austin Slater CF
Wilmer Flores 2B
Carlos Rodón P

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Buddy Kennedy 2B
Alek Thomas CF
Daulton Varsho RF
Carson Kelly C
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Jordan Luplow RF
Madison Bumgarner P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Francisco Giants: 40-37-0 SU / OU 37-35-5 / Run Line W/L 37-40-0
Arizona Diamondbacks: 35-44-0 SU / OU 35-41-3 / Run Line W/L 43-36-0

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Monday, July 4th at Chase Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Francisco as the favorite (-175), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Giants will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the White Sox by the score of 13-4. On their way to giving up 13 runs, the Giants staff allowed 17 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 4 runs on 7 hits. Giants suffered the loss, despite being favored at -135.0. Through 61 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 56%. Together, the Giants and White Sox combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. San Francisco now has an over-under record of 37-35-5.

The Giants will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 1-4 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -12. On offense, San Francisco’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, San Francisco has won over half of their 26 series played, going 12-10-4.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a tight loss to the Rockies, dropping the game 6-5. On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Diamondbacks staff allowed 8 hits. In the loss, the Diamondbacks’ offense still came up with 11 hits and 5 runs. Arizona came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-115.0). So far, the team has won 48.0% of the games in which they were favored. With an over-under line set at 11.0, the Diamondbacks and Rockies combined to match this total. For the year, Arizona now has an over-under record of 35-41-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Diamondbacks have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -2 over their last 5 games. Despite their struggles in the win column, the offense has averaged 5.6 runs over their last 5 games. This is an improvement over their season-long mark of 4.16. Arizona has a below .500 series record of just 8-12-5.

Pitching Matchup

San Francisco will roll with Carlos Rodón (7-4) as their starter. Currently, Rodón has an ERA of just 2.62 while pitching an average of 5.73 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the left-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.21. Not only does Rodón have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.42 HR/9. On the season, Carlos Rodón has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 30.0%. This includes a per game average of 7.0 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Rodón, as he is giving up 2.93 walks per outing.

Arizona will roll with Madison Bumgarner (3-8) as their starter. So far, Bumgarner has put together an ERA of 3.63. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.94 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.263. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Bumgarner. This year, he is allowing 1.37 HRs per 9 innings pitched. Bumgarner’s current strikeout average is 3.56 per game. This includes a K rate of 17.0%. Command has been a problem for Bumgarner, as he is giving up 2.95 walks per outing.

San Francisco vs Arizona History

Today’s matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will be their first meeting of the season. Last season, San Francisco won 17 games compared to 2 for Arizona. The average scoring margin in these games was 3.21, with an over under record of 10-7. Between the games, the average run total was 10.47 runs per game.

More Picks: Toronto at Oakland July 4/22 Analysis & Best Bet >>>

Betting Trends

• San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
• San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games when playing San Francisco
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Heading into Monday’s NL West matchup between San Francisco and Arizona, the Giants are the favorites on the moneyline. However, I feel strong enough about San Francisco picking up the win that I recommend taking them to win by multiple runs. Look for the Diamondbacks to struggle offensively against Carlos Rodon, who has given up just 2 run over his last 4 outings. I like San Francisco on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Giants -1.5 Runline