San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

by | Last updated Jul 19, 2023 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Wednesday, July 19th, 7:07 ET
Location: Rogers Centre
TV: MLBN
Money Line: Padres -101/Blue Jays -119
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Padres on Wednesday, July 19th at Rogers Centre. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SD -101 -1.5 O 9 (-114)
TOR -119 +1.5 U 9 (-107)

Padres vs. Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Ha-Seong Kim 1 SS
Juan Soto 2 RF
Fernando Tatis Jr. 3 RF
Manny Machado 4 3B
Xander Bogaerts 5 SS
Jake Cronenworth 6 2B
Gary Sánchez 7 C
Matt Carpenter 8 DH
Trent Grisham 9 CF
Yu Darvish SP


Batting Order Position
George Springer 1 CF
Bo Bichette 2 SS
Brandon Belt 3 1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 4 1B
Matt Chapman 5 3B
Whit Merrifield 6 2B
Daulton Varsho 7 RF
Alejandro Kirk 8 C
Kevin Kiermaier 9 CF
José Berríos SP


Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 45-50 SU / OU 39-49 / Runline 46-49
Toronto Blue Jays: 53-42 SU / OU 42-49 / Runline 42-53

With an overall record of 45-50, the Padres are in 4th place in the NL West, trailing by 10.5 games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 6-4. On the road, the Padres have a mark of 20-27 while going 25-23 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 11-15-4.

  • The Padres have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.5.
  • The Padres have been favored in 74.7% of their games and have runline records of 23-25 and 23-24 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Padres have an over/under record of just 39-49.

With an overall record of 53-42, the Blue Jays are in 3rd place in the AL East, trailing by 5.5 games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 8-2. On the road, the Blue Jays have a mark of 27-23 while going 26-19 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 19-11.

  • The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 44.2% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.4
  • The Blue Jays have been favored in 73.7% of their games and have runline records of 19-26 and 23-27 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Blue Jays have an over/under record of just 42-49.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Yu Darvish 16 16 91 6-6 4.65 1.26 11


Entering with a record of 6-6, Yu Darvish is making his 17th appearance of the season. So far, he has an ERA of 4.65 on a batting average allowed of .249. On the road, he is 4-3 with a 6.76 ERA and 2-3 at home on an ERA of 4.17. For the season, teams have a slugging percentage of .415 against him.

Yu Darvish finished with a quality start and a win in his last appearance, as the Padres took down the Phillies by final score of 8-3. Darvish gave up one run and five hits across six innings.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
José Berríos 19 19 113 8-6 3.42 1.16 13


Toronto starter José Berríos enters with an overall record of 8-6 and ERA of 3.42. His ERA on the road is 4.51 and 2.84 when pitching at home. Berríos’ season-long WHIP comes in at 1.16 with a batting average allowed of .234. Opposing teams have put together a slugging percentage of .377 against him.

Looking back at Berríos’ last appearance, he allowed seven hits across 5 1/3 innings of work. Overall, he finished with one earned run. Despite not factoring into the decision, the Blue Jays won by a score of 7-2 over the Diamondbacks.

Padres vs. Blue Jays Offense Outlook

This season, the Padres have proven to be one of the top home run hitting teams in baseball, with 121 home runs in total (7th). Currently, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game and have a collective batting average of .235. The team’s slugging percentage is .400 at home and .396 on the road.

San Diego Padres Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Juan Soto .291 13 .556 .357
Xander Bogaerts .270 8 .416 .294
Fernando Tatis Jr. .263 11 .462 .307
Manny Machado .232 13 .446 .286
Jake Cronenworth .203 6 .333 .228


San Diego Padres Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Trent Grisham .397 7 5 2 1.010
Juan Soto .250 5 4 2 .650
Manny Machado .190 4 5 3 .610
Ha-Seong Kim .267 7 4 1 .400
Fernando Tatis Jr. .240 4 3 1 .410


Through 95 games the Blue Jays are 13th in the league at 4.5 runs per game. In terms of home runs, Toronto is 15th having gone deep 105 times. Their batting average leading up to today’s game is .261, including .250 on the road and .259 at home.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Bats

BA OBP SLG RBI HR SB
Bo Bichette .318 .346 .498 53 16 3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .271 .339 .444 60 14 4
George Springer .273 .335 .425 41 13 13


Toronto Blue Jays Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Whit Merrifield .433 6 5 1 .683
Matt Chapman .375 5 3 0 .500
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .183 3 3 1 .417
George Springer .392 6 1 0 .525
Bo Bichette .350 6 1 1 .537


Free MLB Pick

I like the Jays here laying the small number. Jose Berrios will have to tame a Padres line-up that has had no issue putting up runs in recent games scoring four or more in six straight. Berrios has been very solid at home, with a 2.83 ERA over eight starts and a positive 4-2 mark. In contrast, Yu Darvish has struggled on the road with a less-than-impressive 5.52 ERA. The Jays have 80 at-bats against the right-hander, and they’ve had some success with a .287 BA, .345 OBP, and .945 OPS. Take Toronto -115

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