San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

by | Last updated Aug 28, 2023 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Date: Monday, August 28th, 7:45 ET
Location: Busch Stadium
TV: BSMW
Money Line: Padres -190/Cardinals +158 (Odds cost less at BAS!)
Total Line: 9.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Padres on Monday, August 28th at Busch Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SD -190 -1.5 O 9.5 (-107)
STL +158 +1.5 U 9.5 (-115)

Padres vs. Cardinals Projected Lineup

 

Batting Order Position
Ha-Seong Kim 1 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2 RF
Juan Soto 3 LF
Manny Machado 4 3B
Xander Bogaerts 5 SS
Matthew Batten 6 1B
Gary Sánchez 7 C
Garrett Cooper 8 DH
Trent Grisham 9 CF
Blake Snell SP

 

Batting Order Position
Tommy Edman 1 CF
Paul Goldschmidt 2 1B
Nolan Arenado 3 3B
Willson Contreras 4 C
Tyler O’Neill 5 LF
Jordan Walker 6 RF
Nolan Gorman 7 2B
Luken Baker 8 DH
Masyn Winn 9 SS
Adam Wainwright SP

 

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 61-70 SU / OU 53-69 / Runline 62-69
St. Louis Cardinals: 56-75 SU / OU 63-63 / Runline 62-69

Heading into their game vs. the Cardinals, the Padres have a record of 61-70 and have dropped three straight games. In the NL West, they are in 4th place and have an overall series record of 17-20-5. At home, they have gone 35-33 and 26-37 on the road.

 

  • The Padres have covered the runline in 47.3% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.4
  • The Padres have been favored in 77.1% of their games and have runline records of 33-35 and 29-34 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Padres have an over/under record of just 53-69.

If the Cardinals are going to climb out of last place in the NL Central, they will need to turn things around with a win over the Padres. Heading into the game, the Cardinals have lost three straight games and stand with an overall record of 56-75. On the road, the Cardinals are 28-38 and 28-37 at home. The team’s overall series record is 15-21-5.

 

  • The Cardinals have three straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.6.
  • The Cardinals have been favored in 55.7% of their games and have runline records of 28-37 and 34-32 at home and on the road, respectively
  • Through 131 games, the over has hit in half of the Cardinals’ games at 63-63.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Blake Snell 26 26 142 10-9 2.73 1.27 15

The Padres will turn to starter Blake Snell who has an overall record of 10-9. Through 26 appearances his ERA stands at 2.73 with a K/9 figure of 11.66. So far, he has put together of FIP of 3.78 to go along with an OBP of .294.

The Padres are looking for another good outing from Blake Snell, as he finished with a quality start in his last outing. Despite, Snell tossing six innings and allowing just three runs, the Padres still lost to the Marlins by a score of 3-0.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Adam Wainwright 17 17 77 3-9 8.61 1.99 16

In today’s game, St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright will look to do a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark as he has given up a home-run in three straight appearances. Overall, he has put together a record of 3-9 and ERA of 8.61. In total, he has racked up 44 strikeouts and has a K/9 figure of 5.12. In terms of walks, he has issued an average of 3.49 per 9 innings.

Adam Wainwright is coming off an outing against the Pirates in which he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of work, taking the loss. The Cardinals lost the game by a score of 6-3.

Padres vs. Cardinals Offense Outlook

The Padres are making their mark in the power department with a total of 167 home runs (10th). They are currently averaging 4.5 runs per game overall, with a collective batting average of .237. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .395 compared to .393 at home.

San Diego Padres Top Hitters On The Road

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Juan Soto .293 17 .581 .413
Xander Bogaerts .258 6 .381 .311
Ha-Seong Kim .280 9 .459 .370
Fernando Tatis Jr. .238 9 .413 .309
Manny Machado .223 11 .437 .314

San Diego Padres Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Manny Machado .321 4 2 1 .621
Gary Sánchez .188 3 2 2 .562
Xander Bogaerts .175 3 2 2 .550
Juan Soto .312 4 1 1 .688
Ha-Seong Kim .062 1 3 0 .125

For the season, the Cardinals are one of the top home runs hitting teams in the league with a total of 176 home runs (7th). So far, St. Louis is averaging 4.5 runs per game with a collective batting average of .254. When playing at home, the Cardinals have a slugging percentage of .406 compared to .427 at home.

St. Louis Cardinals Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Cardinals 131 4.5 (14th) 176 (7th) .254 (9th) .329 (6th) .329 (6th)

St. Louis Cardinals Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Paul Goldschmidt .292 4 3 1 .542
Nolan Arenado .167 2 1 0 .250
Richie Palacios .250 3 0 0 .333
Luken Baker .167 1 1 1 .666
Tommy Edman .188 3 1 0 .312

Free MLB Pick

This is more of a play against Adam Wainwright, who has been awful. The Padres certainly haven’t been tearing it up coming off a sweep at the hands of the Brewers. But their bats didn’t get shut down; it was some poor pitching that Milwaukee took advantage of. San Diego starter Blake Snell has been ultra-consistent, holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in 17 consecutive starts. The moneyline is too high for me to bet, so the runline is the play. Take San Diego -1.5 -115.

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